EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - July 13, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000601

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - July 13, 2007



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
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- Top Election Official Rules Out Dialogue with Opposition (para.
2)
- Civil Society Activist Loses Lawsuit, Remains Expelled (para. 3)
- Youth Opposition Activist Faces Jail Term (para. 4)
- Brest Authorities Ban Kozulin Demonstration (para. 5)
- Independent Journalists Honor Disappeared Colleague (para. 6)
- Opposition Activist Fined Over Poetry (para. 7)
- Opposition Conference Attendees Questioned (para. 8)
- MF Denied Registration Again (para. 9)
- Religious Activists File Complaints (para. 10)

Domestic Economy
--------------
- Belarus' Property Vouchers Extended Till 2010 (para. 11)
- Customs Double Payments to State Budget (para. 12)
- International Reserves Up 70 Percent (para. 13)
- Consumer Prices Increase .43 Percent in June (para. 14)

Quote of the Week (para. 15)

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Civil Society
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2. Top Election Official Rules Out Dialogue with Opposition

Head of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Lidiya Yermoshina on
July 5 ruled out the possibility of CEC dialogue with the opposition
on amendments to electoral regulations. According to Yermoshina,
only equally strong parties with "similar power ratings" were able
to hold a dialogue [with the CEC]. Moreover, Yermoshina did not see
what there was to discuss. The CEC head hailed Belarus' electoral
regulations for following major OSCE norms and standards and
stipulating foreign and domestic observation and monitoring.
Yermoshina dismissed OSCE's recommendations on electoral procedures,
arguing that they were numerous and often contradictory. Speaking
about 2008 parliamentary elections, Yermoshina noted that the CEC
would schedule them for October 2008.


3. Civil Society Activist Loses Lawsuit, Remains Expelled

On July 5, Yuri Aleinik lost an appeal over his May 15 expulsion
from the Presidential Management Academy for 22 alleged unexcused
absences. The judge ruled that the Academy was accountable to the
president and, therefore, did not fall under the court's
jurisdiction. Lawyers from the Belarusian Helsinki Committee (BHC)
accused authorities of expelling Aleinik for his civil society
activities. More than 250 fellow students signed a petition
supporting Aleinik, but the Academy rector refused to receive him
and the Presidential Administration would not review his complaints.
Aleinik will appeal to the Minsk City Court and the UN Human Rights
Council.


4. Youth Opposition Activist Faces Jail Term

On July 6, Soligorsk authorities formally charged 16-year-old Malady
Front (MF) activist Ivan Shilo with acting on behalf of an
unregistered organization. He faces up to two years imprisonment.
The prosecutor's office required Shilo to write a pledge not to
leave the city until after the trial scheduled for August 10. Shilo
claims that much of the evidence against him was baseless and
contradictory.


5. Brest Authorities Ban Kozulin Demonstration

Brest authorities on July 9 granted members of the Belarusian Social
Democratic Party (BSDP) permission to hold a demonstration on July
10 in support of imprisoned former presidential hopeful Aleksandr
Kozulin, but only at the sports stadium on the outskirts of the city
and not on city streets or squares. The BSDP found the location
"unfeasible" and plan to appeal the authorities' decision.


6. Independent Journalists Honor Disappeared Colleague

The Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ) on July 7 held a
ceremony to commemorate camera operator and journalist Dmitry
Zavadskiy who disappeared seven years ago. BAJ members laid flowers
at Zavadskiy's former residence and greeted his mother. According
to a BAJ representative, July 7 has become a day of professional
integrity for journalists who continue Zavadskiy's work in reporting
unbiased and truthful information. BAJ also expressed hope that the
GOB would one day investigate Zavadskiy's disappearance and hold
accountable those responsible. Zavadskiy, once President

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Lukashenko's personal camera operator, disappeared on July 7, 2000,
at the Minsk National Airport at the age of 28.


7. Opposition Activist Fined for Poetry

On July 8, Vitebsk authorities fined opposition activist Boris
Khomaida USD 145 for allegedly staging an unauthorized demonstration
in the city center. Earlier that day, Khomaida stood downtown with
a poster carrying lines from a poem written by prominent Belarusian
national poet Yanka Kupala to draw attention to the poet's 125th
birthday. Khomaida has been fined and arrested several times for
his opposition activities and distribution of independent
newspapers.


8. Opposition Conference Attendees Questioned

Former de-facto opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich's press
office on July 9 reported that attendees of his May 20 "For Freedom
Movement" founding conference in Grodno were summoned to the local
ideology departments and ordered to write reports on the conference.
Milinkevich linked the questionings to his attempts to register the
movement and argued that the ideology officers abused their power by
questioning the For Freedom activists.


9. MF Denied Registration Again

The GOB on July 10 denied MF's latest request for official
registration. Authorities denied MF registration in May due to
"clerical errors" on the application, which MF spokesperson Boris
Goretsky explained were corrected and resubmitted in the latest
request. Goretsky vowed that MF would appeal the authorities'
decision, maintaining that the GOB deliberately refuses MF
registration.


10. Religious Activists File Complaints

On July 6-10, Christian Democratic Party member Denis Sadovskiy and
Protestant lawyer Sergey Lukanin filed complaints to the Minsk
district court over a July 3 police raid on Sadovskiy's apartment
and their brief detentions (with four other Protestants) while
campaigning to change the 2002 religion law. Sadovskiy claimed that
the police broke into his apartment, seized his personal belongings
and Protestant books without witnesses present, and insulted and
beat him before holding him at the detention center for six hours.
Police failed to produce identification or official grounds for the
search. Police apprehended Lukanin two hours after Sadovskiy's
arrest when he rushed to the apartment to prevent the confiscation
of Sadovskiy's property and campaign papers.

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Domestic Economy
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11. Belarus' Property Vouchers Extended Till 2010

On July 7, the GOB extended the validity of privatization vouchers
until June 30, 2010. The vouchers were issued to Belarusians in
1994-1997 to allow people to get their share of the national wealth,
but Belarus never had a developed stock market and selling vouchers
to anybody other than the state is illegal. Only five million out
of the eight million Belarusians who were eligible to receive
vouchers got one and over half of all received vouchers were
invested in facilities designated by the state. Now that the
deadline is extended, Belarusians are still able to receive a fair
price for their vouchers if and when the country's privatization
policy changes.


12. Customs Double Payments to State Budget

Belarus' Customs Committee Chair Alexander Shpilevskiy informed
Lukashenko on July 9 that Customs payments to the state budget
doubled in January-June to USD 2 billion. Shpilevskiy lauded the
increase, but noted that it was unclear how Belarus' new Customs
code, which came into effect on July 1, would affect the payments.

13. International Reserves Up 70 Percent

According to the National Bank website, Belarus' international
reserves increased 70 percent in January-June to USD 2.34 billion,
largely due to Gazprom's USD 625 million payment for 12.5 percent of
Belarus' natural gas transportation company Beltransgaz. Other
installment payments will follow in 2008-2010. In 2006, Belarus'
international reserves rose by 6.7 percent to USD 1.38 Billion.


14. Consumer Prices Increase .43 Percent in June

On July 11, Head of the Minsk Price Control Department Iosif
Rachytsky announced that June consumer prices in Belarus increased
0.43 percent. Authorities routinely inspect and reprimand
businesses, particularly monopolies, which allow price rises above
0.5 percent monthly.

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15. Quote of the Week
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On July 9, the State Secretary of the Belarusian-Russian Union State
Pavel Borodin chided Ukrainian President Yushchenko for delivering a
greetings message in Ukrainian to participants of the Slavyanski
Bazar music concert in Vitebsk:

"It should not be that the Ukrainians become so independent that
they stop saying "hello." Lukashenko spoke Russian and Putin's
message is also in Russian, despite the fact that he could have used
his German, French, or English."

[Note: Borodin himself used the Belarusian word "nezalezhniy" -
meaning independence - instead of using the Russian variant
"nezavisimiy." End note.]

Stewart