LUKASHENKO PAYS FEALTY TO RUSSIA, DEFIES WEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000578 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BO SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO PAYS FEALTY TO RUSSIA, DEFIES WEST REF: A. MINSK 003 ¶B. MINSK 551 ¶C. MINSK 562 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In recent Belarusian Independence Day speeches, President Lukashenko reaffirmed the GOB's commitment to strengthening its relations with Russia and other former Soviet republics. Meanwhile, the dictator defiantly downplayed the economic consequences of the EU's recent removal of trade preferences for Belarus. In the event of U.S. sanctions, Lukashenko threatened retaliation against American businesses. The speeches notably followed the recent visit to Minsk by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and the GOB decision not to amnesty Belarusian political prisoners. End Summary. Lukashenko Pledges Fidelity to Russia -------------- ¶2. (U) From July 2 to 5, President Lukashenko delivered three similar speeches during an annual parade and other ceremonies commemorating Belarus' official independence holiday (the anniversary of Soviet liberation of Minsk during WWII) that focused on GOB relations with Russia and the West. While praising the GOB's "multi-directional" foreign policy and reaffirming with "pride" Belarus' sovereignty, Lukashenko used all three speeches to identify the GOB's top priority as building a common defense policy and the Union State with Russia in spite of "difficulties in economic relations" following Belarus' energy conflict with Russia earlier in the year (ref A). Recalling the contributions of Belarus' "brethren republics" of the USSR to rebuild Belarus after WWII, Lukashenko adamantly pledged to defend Belarus' and Russia's shared territory and to strengthen the GOB's military and economic cooperation with other former-Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. ...Criticizes Missile Defense, and Downplays Sanctions -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Immediately after warning of a recent rise in armed conflicts and international terrorism stemming from "religious, national, and political extremism," Lukashenko echoed Russian opposition to NATO expansion and the planned U.S. deployment of a missile-defense system in central Europe that, according to Lukashenko, would "aggravate the political and military situation on Belarus' frontiers." Moreover, the Belarusian dictator criticized "developed Western democracies" for remaining silent on policies that he claimed undermine the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Reacting to the June 21 removal of Belarus' benefits under the EU's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP),Lukashenko minimized economic losses by noting that Belarusians survived recent jumps in energy prices and "would not die" because of "those USD 20-30 million sanctions." ¶4. (SBU) In his July 2 address, Lukashenko threatened to take "severe measures against those U.S. companies and collectives that today operate on Belarusian territory" if the USG stiffened sanctions. Several managers of U.S. companies in Minsk told Acting Pol/Econ Chief that Lukashenko made similar threats in the past and they were not overly concerned at present. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Nostalgia for the Stalinist era and Soviet-style military parades have long been the hallmark of July 3 celebrations during Lukashenko's reign. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that Lukashenko gave such pro-Russian speeches on the heels of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's recent visit to Minsk, during which Lukashenko reportedly reiterated the GOB's request for USD two billion in credit from Russia. Moreover, we note that Lukashenko's defiance regarding GSP and other pending economic sanctions coincided with the GOB's decision not to grant an amnesty to Belarusian political prisoners (ref C),whose release would have been the first step toward working to improve relations with the West. Stewart