SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BOEHNER MEETING WITH

UNCLAS MINSK 000566

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BOEHNER MEETING WITH
BELARUSIANS IN TALLINN

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Your decision to meet with leaders from the
Belarusian opposition underlines continued USG support for
democratic transformation in the country Secretary Rice aptly
labeled Europe's last dictatorship. Belarus's increasing
international isolation puts the opposition in a unique
position to broaden its base of support. However, the
opposition has lost steam while settling internal
differences. One of your interlocutors represents the
political parties that have remained within a coalition
formed in 2005, and the other the camp of former presidential
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich. Points you may wish to make
in your meeting include: USG support for democratic change
has never been stronger; supporters of democracy should
collaborate where possible, but work independently when
necessary; and, active participation in the 2008
parliamentary elections must begin early to regain momentum.
End summary.

Lukashenko Faces Unprecedented International Isolation
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has
recently been forced to reach out to international pariahs
such as Iran and Cuba due his increasing isolation within
Europe. In June the European Union suspended trade
preferences to Belarus in response to the country's failure
to respect basic workers rights. Even traditional ally
Russia has moved to wean Minsk from huge energy subsidies
that had propped up the Belarusian economy and Lukashenko's
system of political patronage.


3. (SBU) During an April visit to Minsk, U.S. Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer delivered a very
clear ultimatum that the Belarusian Government must release
all political prisoners or face toughening U.S. sanctions.
Unfortunately, six persons, including former presidential
candidate Aleksandr Kozulin, remain behind bars simply for
exercising their inalienable right to freedom of speech and
association. As a result, expanded economic sanctions and
travel restrictions on additional officials are under ative
consideration.

Opposition Groups Go Their Separate Ways
--------------


4. (SBU) In the absence of a looming presidential election to
unite them, the opposition coalition that formed for the 2006
presidential elections has frayed. A May congress formalized
a split, with coalition presidential candidate Aleksandr
Milinkevich opting to focus on his new "For Freedom"
movement, which he hopes will mobilize non-partisan segments
of civil society in support of democracy. The four strongest
democratic political parties remain in the United Democratic
Forces coalition.

Opposition Needs to Coordinate to Expand Support Base
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Opposition coalition and civil society leaders know
that they must reach out to convince average Belarusians to
actively support democratic change. They face huge barriers
in the form of authoritarian propaganda spread by the
state-controlled media and a repressive security apparatus
that targets those most active in resisting Lukashenko.
Ideally, the United Democratic Forces coalition will develop
a clear message based on bread-and-butter issues and begin
campaigning all out even though elections for parliament are
not due until October 2008. The opposition expects
elections, like all those under Lukashenko, to be fraudulent,
but they still present the best opportunity for rallying
support against the dictator.


6. (SBU) For its part, "For Freedom" can play a constructive
role by engaging civil society activists to promote free and
fair elections. In some cases "For Freedom" members who also
belong to a political party may wish to seek to run in United
Democratic Forces primaries. The danger lies in the
possibility that "For Freedom" will ignore the coalition and
collect signatures to get its own candidates on the ballot to
run against the coalition primary winners. Such a move would
likely destroy what remained of the coalition and leave
Lukashenko unscathed.

Your Meeting with Sergey Alfer and a "For Freedom" Deputy
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Sergey Alfer is a former deputy chairman of the
United Civic Party, the party within the United Democratic

Forces coalition most focused on free markets. Alfer helped
write two of the documents approved in the May congress -- a
strategic action plan and a draft interim constitution. The
strategic action plan outlines plans by the opposition to use
mass protests to pressure the regime into negotiation with
the opposition.


8. (SBU) Yuriy Gubarevich is one of two deputies in Aleksandr
Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement. He was a city council
member from Beloozersk in western Belarus until fraudulent
local elections in January. He is also a member of one of
the constituent parties in the United Democratic Forces,
Belarusian National Front, a center-right party that promotes
Belarusian language and culture. He will likely seek to run
for parliament and it will be key that he do so with the
sponsorship of the United Democratic Forces.


9. (SBU) Points you may wish to emphasize in your meeting
include:

-- USG support for change in Belarus has never been stronger.

Background: Bush's mention of former presidential candidate
Aleksandr Kozulin at the top of a list of prominent political
prisoners last month in Prague demonstrates Belarus still
rates attention at the highest levels in Washington.
Assuming the regime fails to release the remaining political
prisoners, the USG will move forward with toughened travel
and economic sanctions against the regime.

-- Political parties and NGOs have distinct roles. Where
possible, you should collaborate on some projects and work
independently on others.

Background: The group needs to hear from Washington
interlocutors that there are various ways to promote
democratic change in a country, and political parties and
NGOs both play essential roles. While each group may have a
particular approach to mobilizing people, events such as
demonstrations planned for the fall serve as excellent
opportunities for collaboration. "For Freedom" should
consider playing an active role in mobilizing civil society
groups to work together with political parties on certain
projects.

-- Active participation in the 2008 parliamentary elections
must begin early to regain momentum.

Background: While standing as a candidate entails facing
intense pressure from the regime, members of the coalition
should be willing to do whatever it takes to regain the
momentum that it lost after the 2006 presidential elections.
U.S. policy limits financing for individual political
parties, but we can and will support a broad-based coalition
for democratic change. "For Freedom" should not expect USG
support if it bypasses United Democratic Forces primary
procedures and runs its own candidates, thereby allowing
Lukashenko to divide and conquer the opposition.

Stewart