ELECTION AUTHORITIES ANNOUNCE LOCAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000051 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC BO SUBJECT: ELECTION AUTHORITIES ANNOUNCE LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS, OPPOSITION FURTHER MARGINALIZED REF: A. MINSK 036 ¶B. MINSK 002 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d ). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Central Election Commission (CEC) on January 18 announced the final results of the January 14 municipal elections. Allegedly 79 percent of the electorate voted, but only 16 out of 166 pro-democracy candidates won council seats. The CEC rejected all complaints from election participants and dismissed foreign and domestic criticism as unsubstantiated. End summary. Inflated Voter Turnout -------------- ¶2. (U) At a January 18 press conference, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that 79.2 percent of all registered Belarusian voters cast their ballot on January 9-14. Vitebsk oblast had the highest voter turnout at 90.4 percent; Minsk city had the lowest turnout at 60 percent. (Note: This is a much higher turnout than independent observers estimated for poloffs (ref A). End note.) Out of the 22,661 local council seats up for election, only 22 were left unfilled because candidates in those districts were uncontested and failed to obtain 50 percent of the vote. Repeat elections will be held in each district. Women made up 45.7 percent of winning candidates, 51.2 percent were incumbents, and 6.3 percent were youth under 30 years of age. (Note: Similar to candidate registration percentages reported (ref B). End note.) Eleven Russian citizens were elected. Opposition Loses, Again -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Only 1.5 percent (340) of those elected were political party candidates and even fewer were opposition party candidates. According to pro-democracy political party representatives, two out of 40 Belarusian National Front (BNF) candidates, 10 out 32 Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) candidates, one out of 51 United Civic Party (UCP) candidates, two out of 29 Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP) candidates, and one out of 14 Belarusian Party of Labor candidates were elected to local councils. Out of the total 166 opposition candidates who participated in elections, only 16 won seats; much fewer than the 80 pro-democracy candidates who were elected in the 2003 local elections. ¶4. (U) In comparison, candidates from the pro-government youth group, the Belarusian Republican Youth Union (BRYU), won 1,465 local council seats, including four on the Minsk City council. Only 10 BRYU candidates lost elections in their districts. According to CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina, this victory showed the level of support and respect that the BRYU enjoys from the population. Few Complaints; All Overruled -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The CEC received only 17 complaints, but not one report of an electoral regulation violation. According to CEC Head Yermoshina, most of the complaints were of election commissions' refusal to provide information (i.e., voter lists and ballot inventories). However, these complaints were dismissed because election commissions, according to the CEC, were not required to share this information. The CEC received a complaint accusing an election commission chairman of falsifying results because he was in the polling station with the early election ballot box for 50 minutes after polls had closed. Yermoshina chuckled (along with the rest of the CEC and most of the hand-picked audience),replying that commission chairs have to arrange ballot boxes and prepare for Election Day at some point during the day. Plenty of Observers, So Why the Criticism? -------------- ¶6. (U) Yermoshina claimed that Belarus was the world leader in election observations. According to Yermoshina, 19,000 observers participated in the local elections and ensured that the election process abided by international norms. Yermoshina read the recent EU statement, which condemned the elections as undemocratic and cited reports of registration problems, arrests, and manipulation of early voting. MINSK 00000051 002 OF 002 Yermoshina said the EU's statement "did not hold water" and claimed that the CEC received no reports of arrests of politicians, office searches, or observers being barred from polling stations. Yermoshina noted that foreign observers traditionally do not monitor local elections. Yermoshina added that the EU drew its conclusions from "biased sources." ¶7. (U) CEC Secretary Nikolay Lozovik on January 16 had criticized international criticism as "baseless." Lozovik also noted that the EU and Germany, whose presidency issued a statement condemning the elections, did not have observers on the ground. He lambasted the Belarusian Helsinki Committee (BHC) for providing biased information, claiming that the BHC did not have any observers in the polling stations. (Note: The BHC had approximately 500 observers, though they served as independents who collected signatures for observer status and not under the auspices of the BHC. End note.) Lozovik called the EU's response an "echo" of U.S. Embassy statements in August that had "made conclusions" before the elections took place. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The CEC's response to the local election results was not surprising. The CEC did not honor any complaints, dismissed international criticism, and accepted results from election commissions without question. Yermoshina's stance on due process became clear before the start of the press conference, when she, in poloff's presence, quickly agreed with an election commission's decision to suspend the registration of a candidate for "inaccurate" income statements despite the commission's inability to provide any evidence or proof. The GOB always wins. ¶9. (C) The pro-democracy force's reaction also produced little waves. The opposition now has 80 percent fewer representatives on local councils, but few candidates seem to be actively contesting the results. For the CEC and the GOB, the elections were a clear victory. However, for those opposition members who used the campaign period to spread their vision for democratic Belarus, not all was lost. Stewart