OSCE ACTIVELY WORKS TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000497

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: OSCE ACTIVELY WORKS TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN BELARUS

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) According to Deputy Head of the OSCE Office in Minsk
Vahram Abidjan, the mission's democracy promotion efforts in
Belarus focus primarily on monitoring the GOB's actions to
fulfill its OSCE commitments. In order to evaluate the GOB's
progress, Minsk OSCE Office representatives attend trials,
visit prisoners, and observe demonstrations. Additionally,
they attempt to use OSCE projects to bring together civil
society and government representatives, since few
opportunities for such interaction currently exist. Abidjan
predicted that change will come slowly to Belarus and that
youth actors and economic factors will play key roles in the
transformation. He stressed that the international community
should utilize tough dialogue, not sanctions, in its
relations with the GOB, although he also understood the
limitations of less aggressive approaches. End summary.

Monitoring: OSCE's Top Priority
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2. (C) Deputy Head of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office in Minsk Vahram Abidjan
told Acting DCM that his mission's first priority in Belarus
is to monitor the GOB's compliance with its OSCE commitments.
Pursuant to this goal, Abidjan stated that OSCE officers
attend trials of opposition activists, visit political
prisoners and detainees, and observe opposition
demonstrations. Most notably, OSCE Ambassador Oke Peterson
received permission to visit political prisoner Aleksandr
Kozulin in October 2006; the GOB has repeatedly denied the
U.S. Embassy requests for access to Kozulin. Abidjan noted
that under the OSCE's memorandum of understanding with the
GOB, OSCE representatives have full access to approach
anyone. He added that despite some delays in approving
requests for visitation, the GOB has presented no major
obstacles to this part of the OSCE's work.

Projects Aim to Build GOB-Civil Society Relationship
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3. (C) Abidjan explained to A/DCM that the Minsk OSCE
Office's projects aim to bring together GOB officials and
civil society activists from registered organizations in
order to strengthen their relationships. For example, in
February the Minsk OSCE office hosted a series of lectures
for law students on legal defense and invited OSCE Ombudsmen
from Sweden, Poland and Russia, GOB parliamentarians, and
civil society experts. Human Dimensions Officer Fiona Frazer
lamented to Poloff, however, that long delays and other
difficulties in project registration often hinder their
ability to initiate projects.

Dialogue, Not Sanctions, Necessary for (Slow) Change
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4. (C) Abidjan, who is an expert in the region and has
worked in Belarus for several years, commented that
Belarusian civil society expects rapid change to occur in
Belarus like it did in other former Soviet Union countries.
However, Abidjan stressed that Belarus' situation is not as
dire as those countries. He stated that people's perception
of President Lukashenko is good, corruption is not
overwhelmingly evident, and the gap between the rich and the
poor is not so stark. Therefore, he concluded that change in
Belarus would continue to be a slow process, most likely
resulting from economic catalysts and not political ones. He
added that the youth would most likely play a critical role
in this transition since the older generations were too set
in their ways.


5. (C) Abidjan stressed, however, that the international
community should rely on dialogue and not sanctions to
influence the regime. He reasoned that the more countries
interact and strengthen their relationships, the more
influence they have over one another. A/DCM concurred with
Abidjan on the importance of engagement but also stressed
that when repeated attempts at dialogue have yielded no
substantive change in the policies of the regime tougher
measures may be necessary.

Comment
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6. (C) Post values the significant efforts the Minsk OSCE
Office has undertaken to promote democracy efforts in

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Belarus. From observing demonstrations and trials, to
visiting political prisoners, to finding ways to bridge the
chasm between Belarusian civil society and government
representatives, the Minsk OSCE Office has been very active
in its support for democracy in the country, particularly
given the GOB's extreme skepticism towards any engagement
with civil society. Under the strong leadership of
Ambassador Peterson, who is scheduled to depart Minsk in
August, and Abidjan, OSCE Minsk plays a key role in
maintaining pressure on the regime for democratic reform,
despite the institutional difficulties of working with the
GOB. We hope Ambassador Peterson's replacement will be
equally persistent and committed to human rights.
Stewart