AHMADINEJAD IN MINSK: PARIAHS SEEK ECONOMIC TIES

UNCLAS MINSK 000425

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PINR ECON EPET BO IR
SUBJECT: AHMADINEJAD IN MINSK: PARIAHS SEEK ECONOMIC TIES

REF: MINSK 416

Summary
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1. (SBU) During President Ahmadinejad's May 21-22 visit to
Minsk, Belarus and Iran signed a wide range of economic
agreements. The deal with the most potential significance
grants Belarus access to the Jofeir oilfield. Any arms sales
were not made public. Only significant military exports from
Belarus to Iran would expand trade to the high level -- USD
500 million annually -- proposed by Lukashenko. End summary.

Economic Deals: Show Me the Money
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2. (SBU) An agreement for Belarus' national oil company to
drill in the Jofeir oilfield represents the one potentially
significant economic deliverable made public during President
Ahmadinejad's May 21-22 visit to Minsk. However, although
Lukashenko said oil production could begin "today," no terms
were given. Other economic agreements included expansion of
Iranian automobile production in Belarus (reftel),increasing
agricultural imports from Iran, reciprocal recognition of
safety and standards certification, bilateral export
guarantees, and a joint program to train banking sector
personnel. The Iranian Ambassador claimed an agreement on
energy cooperation would be signed in the coming months.
Lukashenko said trade between the two countries should expand
to USD 500 million this year (from USD 36 million in 2006).

Military Trade: Not Exposed to Light of Day
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3. (SBU) No negotiations to purchase military or dual use
equipment were made public. At the May 22 opening of Milex,
the premium military sales exposition in Belarus, an
announcer said an Iranian minister was in attendance. In an
arrangement that could provide training for those in Iran's
military industrial complex, an accord between the Belarusian
Ministry of Education and the Iranian Ministry of Science,
Research and Technology would reportedly expand several times
over the number of Iranian students in Belarus from the
present day figure of 288. Most of the students are
reportedly studying mechanical engineering.

State Television Glosses Over Iran's Isolation
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4. (SBU) State news media gave extensive coverage of the
visit. Ahmadinejad was portrayed as a man of peace,
particularly when he was shown commemorating victims of World
War II. Belarusian Television claimed that Iran "despite UN
sanctions" engaged in substantial trade with the West, even
suggesting the United States was Iran's 12th leading trade
partner.

Comment: Belarus Has to Take What It Can Get
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5. (SBU) Lukashenko said at the press conference summarizing
the results of the visit that Belarus seeks to diversify
exports. Given Belarus' poor relations with its neighbors
and products of questionable quality, Iran and other
countries with problematic relations with the West will
continue to remain prime targets of opportunity for the
Lukashenko regime. The suggestion that trade will reach USD
500 million annually is the same statement Lukashenko trots
out during high-level meetings with any foreign country.
Although the export of dual-use technologies to Iran will
likely increase, we will believe trade between Tehran and
Minsk will hit half a billion dollars when we see it.
Stewart