Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MINSK412
2007-05-18 08:03:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - MAY 18, 2007
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000412
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - MAY 18, 2007
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000412
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - MAY 18, 2007
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Civil Society
--------------
- Opposition Activists Protest Children's Benefits Cut (para. 2)
- Opposition Calls for Solidarity with Indicted Youth (para. 3)
- Opposition Seeks Legal Action against Pro-GOB Rally (para. 4)
International Relations
--------------
- Vietnam's Public Security Ministry Visits Belarus (para. 5)
- GOB Seeks Extension of Trans-Euro Corridor to Minsk (para. 6)
International Trade and Investment
--------------
- Belarus Lags Far Behind GOB Foreign Trade Targets (para. 7)
- GOB Official Calls for Import Duty on Canned Food (para. 8)
Domestic Economy
--------------
- Consumer Prices Up 2.8 Percent (para. 9)
- Crude Oil Refining Down 4.3 Percent (para. 10)
- Industrial Output Up 13.1 Percent (para. 11)
- Automobile Fuel Prices Jump Five Percent (para. 12)
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 13)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
2. Opposition Activists Protest Children's Benefits Cut
On May 16, chapters of the opposition Belarusian Social Democratic
Party "Gramada" (BSDP) and the Belarusian Party of Communists in
Gomel and Brest announced their applications to city authorities to
stage rallies on June 1 to protest the GOB's plans to abolish
certain children's benefits. Brest BSDP Head Igor Maslovskiy
described the demonstrations as part of a broader protest campaign.
Maslovskiy also noted that BSDP activist Georgiy Rutskiy has
embarked on a bicycle tour across the Brest region to attract public
attention to the GOB plans.
3. Opposition Calls for Solidarity with Indicted Youth
On May 15, a group of prominent Belarusian opposition politicians
and intellectuals issued a statement calling upon the public to come
to a Minsk courthouse on May 30 to demonstrate solidarity with five
Malady Front leaders who face up to two years in prison for running
their unregistered pro-democracy youth organization. Among the
opposition leaders who signed the statement were de facto opposition
coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, former Head of State
Stanislav Shushkevich, Belarusian Popular Front Chair Vintsuk
Vyachorka, United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko, Belarusian
Party of Communists Chair Sergey Kalyakin, and Belarusian Social
Democratic Party "Gramada" Acting Chair Anatoliy Levkovich.
4. Opposition Seeks Legal Action against Pro-GOB Rally
On May 15, opposition activist Sergey Semyonov petitioned the
Prosecutor's Office in Gomel to punish City Executive Committee
officials for allowing pro-government Belarusian Republican Youth
Union (BRYU) activists to stage a May 7 rally near a local school.
According to Semyonov, the authorities had no right to permit the
protest because the square in front of a deaf people society's
headquarters is the only venue in the city where demonstrations are
allowed. Semyonov explained that pro-democratic activists were
denied permission to hold mass events during the Chernobyl
anniversary even at the officially designated venue. He observed,
"BRYU activists stage their rallies at any place they like. I want
laws to be observed in our country and the city executive committee
to abide by its own decisions." The BRYU rally protested the
relocation of a Red Army memorial in Estonia.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
5. Vietnam's Public Security Ministry Visits Belarus
On May 12-18, a delegation from Vietnam's Ministry of Public
Security visited Minsk to sign a cooperation protocol between
Belarus' Interior Ministry Academy and the Vietnamese People's
Police Academy and discuss the details of a visit to Minsk by
Vietnamese Public Security Minister Le Hong Anh later this year.
During the visit, the Vietnamese delegation reportedly expressed
MINSK 00000412 002 OF 003
interest in possible purchases of law-enforcement products made in
Belarus. Belarusian Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov visited
Vietnam in January.
6. GOB Seeks Extension of Trans-European Corridor to Minsk
On May 12, independent media reported an appeal by Belarus' Ministry
of Transportation to the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
to support Belarus' proposal to extend one of the 10 pan-European
transport corridors, Corridor V, to Minsk. The extension of the
corridor, which currently runs from Lisbon to Kyiv, would facilitate
the transportation of goods and passengers from the Russian
Federation to Slovakia, Hungary, Western Ukraine and the Balkans and
the integration of three other corridors into a single transport
network. The GOB reportedly delivered the appeal at the 60th
session of the UNECE in Geneva in late April. During the session,
Belarusian Transport Minister Vladimir Sosnovskiy discussed EU visa
restrictions on Belarusian drivers with the International Road
Transport Union. The GOB has criticized such restrictions as
anti-competitive.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
7. Belarus Lags Far Behind GOB Foreign Trade Targets
On May 11, President Lukashenko criticized his cabinet for a USD 547
million foreign trade deficit in January-March instead of a planned
USD 500-600 million surplus. Belarus' exports in the first quarter
grew 7.5 percent versus a planned 13-14 percent and imports grew 20
percent versus the projected 8-9 percent. Deputy Prime Minister
Sidorskiy said Belarus would produce more household appliances,
pharmaceuticals, and detergents that account for a large portion of
Belarus' imports. Last year Belarus produced USD 664 million worth
of such products.
8. GOB Official Calls for Import Duty on Canned Food
On May 15, Belarusian State Food Industry Concern (Belpishcheprom)
Anatoliy Filonov proposed imposing a seasonal import duty on canned
fruit and vegetables as a protectionist measure. Expressing
dissatisfaction with the ongoing modernization of Belarus'
canneries, Filonov noted that imported products accounted for more
than half of all canned fruit and vegetables consumed in Belarus and
that Belarusian canneries' inventories currently amount to 400
percent of their overall monthly output. According to
Belpishcheprom, 59 Belarusian canning companies produced more than
47 million cans of food January through March, a 4.5-percent output
increase compared with the same period of the previous year. The
industry reported an average profitability rate of three percent in
the first quarter, with 17 canneries posting net losses.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
--------------
9. Consumer Prices Up 2.8 Percent
According to Belarus' Statistics Ministry, the consumer price index
(CPI) was up 2.8 percent in January-April 2007, versus a 2.5 percent
increase in the same months in 2006. April's CPI was down 0.2
percent, primarily due to a 2.2 percent decrease in prices on
consumer services from March. Belarus' government expects CPI to
grow 6-8 percent in 2007. The numbers were 6.6 percent in 2006 and
8 percent in 2006. Independent observers claim CPI calculations in
Belarus are not fair, since they reflect price dynamics of only a
very limited number of goods.
10. Crude Oil Refining Down 4.3 Percent
According to Belarus' Statistics Ministry, crude oil processing at
Belarus' two oil refineries during January-April declined 4.3
percent on the year to 6.9 million tons. Belarus plans to process
21.5 million tons in 2007.
11. Industrial Output Up 13.1 Percent
On May 16, First Deputy Industry Minister Ivan Dzemidovich reported
that Belarus' industrial output in the first four months of 2007
increased by 13.1 percent year-on-year while the export of
industrial products rose by 38 percent. According to Dzemidovich,
fixed capital expenditures of enterprises under the control of the
Industry Ministry totaled USD 163.2 million from January to May,
which was almost two times more than in the same period of 2006.
12. Automobile Fuel Prices Jump Five Percent
On May 14, the GOB-owned oil and chemical products company
Belneftekhim introduced a five-percent increase in the price of
automobile fuel, the second price hike this year. In both
instances, Belneftekhim attributed the rise to higher export duties
on crude oil introduced by Russia early this year. The price of
MINSK 00000412 003 OF 003
95-octane gasoline edged up from USD 3.70 to USD 3.88 per gallon.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
--------------
13. On May 15, Ruslan Primak, the deputy director of the Vitsba-3
prison, offered this boast regarding his most famous inmate, former
opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin (who is serving
five and a half years on politically motivated charges of
hooliganism):
"Over the past two months Kozulin had no violations of correctional
facility regulations. The prisoner's adaptation period is
complete."
MOORE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - MAY 18, 2007
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Civil Society
--------------
- Opposition Activists Protest Children's Benefits Cut (para. 2)
- Opposition Calls for Solidarity with Indicted Youth (para. 3)
- Opposition Seeks Legal Action against Pro-GOB Rally (para. 4)
International Relations
--------------
- Vietnam's Public Security Ministry Visits Belarus (para. 5)
- GOB Seeks Extension of Trans-Euro Corridor to Minsk (para. 6)
International Trade and Investment
--------------
- Belarus Lags Far Behind GOB Foreign Trade Targets (para. 7)
- GOB Official Calls for Import Duty on Canned Food (para. 8)
Domestic Economy
--------------
- Consumer Prices Up 2.8 Percent (para. 9)
- Crude Oil Refining Down 4.3 Percent (para. 10)
- Industrial Output Up 13.1 Percent (para. 11)
- Automobile Fuel Prices Jump Five Percent (para. 12)
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 13)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
2. Opposition Activists Protest Children's Benefits Cut
On May 16, chapters of the opposition Belarusian Social Democratic
Party "Gramada" (BSDP) and the Belarusian Party of Communists in
Gomel and Brest announced their applications to city authorities to
stage rallies on June 1 to protest the GOB's plans to abolish
certain children's benefits. Brest BSDP Head Igor Maslovskiy
described the demonstrations as part of a broader protest campaign.
Maslovskiy also noted that BSDP activist Georgiy Rutskiy has
embarked on a bicycle tour across the Brest region to attract public
attention to the GOB plans.
3. Opposition Calls for Solidarity with Indicted Youth
On May 15, a group of prominent Belarusian opposition politicians
and intellectuals issued a statement calling upon the public to come
to a Minsk courthouse on May 30 to demonstrate solidarity with five
Malady Front leaders who face up to two years in prison for running
their unregistered pro-democracy youth organization. Among the
opposition leaders who signed the statement were de facto opposition
coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, former Head of State
Stanislav Shushkevich, Belarusian Popular Front Chair Vintsuk
Vyachorka, United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko, Belarusian
Party of Communists Chair Sergey Kalyakin, and Belarusian Social
Democratic Party "Gramada" Acting Chair Anatoliy Levkovich.
4. Opposition Seeks Legal Action against Pro-GOB Rally
On May 15, opposition activist Sergey Semyonov petitioned the
Prosecutor's Office in Gomel to punish City Executive Committee
officials for allowing pro-government Belarusian Republican Youth
Union (BRYU) activists to stage a May 7 rally near a local school.
According to Semyonov, the authorities had no right to permit the
protest because the square in front of a deaf people society's
headquarters is the only venue in the city where demonstrations are
allowed. Semyonov explained that pro-democratic activists were
denied permission to hold mass events during the Chernobyl
anniversary even at the officially designated venue. He observed,
"BRYU activists stage their rallies at any place they like. I want
laws to be observed in our country and the city executive committee
to abide by its own decisions." The BRYU rally protested the
relocation of a Red Army memorial in Estonia.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
5. Vietnam's Public Security Ministry Visits Belarus
On May 12-18, a delegation from Vietnam's Ministry of Public
Security visited Minsk to sign a cooperation protocol between
Belarus' Interior Ministry Academy and the Vietnamese People's
Police Academy and discuss the details of a visit to Minsk by
Vietnamese Public Security Minister Le Hong Anh later this year.
During the visit, the Vietnamese delegation reportedly expressed
MINSK 00000412 002 OF 003
interest in possible purchases of law-enforcement products made in
Belarus. Belarusian Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov visited
Vietnam in January.
6. GOB Seeks Extension of Trans-European Corridor to Minsk
On May 12, independent media reported an appeal by Belarus' Ministry
of Transportation to the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
to support Belarus' proposal to extend one of the 10 pan-European
transport corridors, Corridor V, to Minsk. The extension of the
corridor, which currently runs from Lisbon to Kyiv, would facilitate
the transportation of goods and passengers from the Russian
Federation to Slovakia, Hungary, Western Ukraine and the Balkans and
the integration of three other corridors into a single transport
network. The GOB reportedly delivered the appeal at the 60th
session of the UNECE in Geneva in late April. During the session,
Belarusian Transport Minister Vladimir Sosnovskiy discussed EU visa
restrictions on Belarusian drivers with the International Road
Transport Union. The GOB has criticized such restrictions as
anti-competitive.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
7. Belarus Lags Far Behind GOB Foreign Trade Targets
On May 11, President Lukashenko criticized his cabinet for a USD 547
million foreign trade deficit in January-March instead of a planned
USD 500-600 million surplus. Belarus' exports in the first quarter
grew 7.5 percent versus a planned 13-14 percent and imports grew 20
percent versus the projected 8-9 percent. Deputy Prime Minister
Sidorskiy said Belarus would produce more household appliances,
pharmaceuticals, and detergents that account for a large portion of
Belarus' imports. Last year Belarus produced USD 664 million worth
of such products.
8. GOB Official Calls for Import Duty on Canned Food
On May 15, Belarusian State Food Industry Concern (Belpishcheprom)
Anatoliy Filonov proposed imposing a seasonal import duty on canned
fruit and vegetables as a protectionist measure. Expressing
dissatisfaction with the ongoing modernization of Belarus'
canneries, Filonov noted that imported products accounted for more
than half of all canned fruit and vegetables consumed in Belarus and
that Belarusian canneries' inventories currently amount to 400
percent of their overall monthly output. According to
Belpishcheprom, 59 Belarusian canning companies produced more than
47 million cans of food January through March, a 4.5-percent output
increase compared with the same period of the previous year. The
industry reported an average profitability rate of three percent in
the first quarter, with 17 canneries posting net losses.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
--------------
9. Consumer Prices Up 2.8 Percent
According to Belarus' Statistics Ministry, the consumer price index
(CPI) was up 2.8 percent in January-April 2007, versus a 2.5 percent
increase in the same months in 2006. April's CPI was down 0.2
percent, primarily due to a 2.2 percent decrease in prices on
consumer services from March. Belarus' government expects CPI to
grow 6-8 percent in 2007. The numbers were 6.6 percent in 2006 and
8 percent in 2006. Independent observers claim CPI calculations in
Belarus are not fair, since they reflect price dynamics of only a
very limited number of goods.
10. Crude Oil Refining Down 4.3 Percent
According to Belarus' Statistics Ministry, crude oil processing at
Belarus' two oil refineries during January-April declined 4.3
percent on the year to 6.9 million tons. Belarus plans to process
21.5 million tons in 2007.
11. Industrial Output Up 13.1 Percent
On May 16, First Deputy Industry Minister Ivan Dzemidovich reported
that Belarus' industrial output in the first four months of 2007
increased by 13.1 percent year-on-year while the export of
industrial products rose by 38 percent. According to Dzemidovich,
fixed capital expenditures of enterprises under the control of the
Industry Ministry totaled USD 163.2 million from January to May,
which was almost two times more than in the same period of 2006.
12. Automobile Fuel Prices Jump Five Percent
On May 14, the GOB-owned oil and chemical products company
Belneftekhim introduced a five-percent increase in the price of
automobile fuel, the second price hike this year. In both
instances, Belneftekhim attributed the rise to higher export duties
on crude oil introduced by Russia early this year. The price of
MINSK 00000412 003 OF 003
95-octane gasoline edged up from USD 3.70 to USD 3.88 per gallon.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
--------------
13. On May 15, Ruslan Primak, the deputy director of the Vitsba-3
prison, offered this boast regarding his most famous inmate, former
opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin (who is serving
five and a half years on politically motivated charges of
hooliganism):
"Over the past two months Kozulin had no violations of correctional
facility regulations. The prisoner's adaptation period is
complete."
MOORE