DELEGATE CONFERENCE RESULTS IN MILINKEVICH LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000399 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO SUBJECT: DELEGATE CONFERENCE RESULTS IN MILINKEVICH LOSS REF: A. MINSK 306 ¶B. MINSK 362 ¶C. MINSK 352 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The coalition of United Democratic Forces held seven regional delegate conferences April 29 - May 13 in which 620 regional delegates voted on agenda items for the May 26-27 opposition congress. Delegates voted against de facto leader Milinkevich's campaign for a single chairperson of the political council (PC),instead choosing a co-chairmanship comprised of political party leaders. Delegates also chose representation in the PC based on quotas and elected to make the presidium subordinate to the PC. Regional activists reported cases of signature fraud to select delegates, but congress organizers are satisfied with the results. End summary. ¶2. (U) The UDF held seven separate regional congresses from April 29 to May 13 in which 620 out of 822 delegates voted on issues to be discussed at the May 26-27 congress (refs A, B). Charge, Acting DCM, and Poloffs observed the regional conferences in Grodno, Brest, Minsk city, and Vitebsk. ¶3. (U) Note: Acronyms of regional conferences: MNK - Minsk VSK - Vitebsk MGV - Mogilyov BRT - Brest GRD - Grodno GML - Gomel MNKC - Minsk city TOT - Total End note. Co-Chairmanship Wins, Milinkevich Loses -------------- ¶4. (U) Approximately 57% of delegates decided to have a co-chairmanship of the political council (PC) rather than a single chairperson. The co-chairmanship will be jointly shared by leaders of large political parties (Belarusian National Front (BNF),Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC), United Civic Party (UCP),Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP),and "For Freedom" movement) and will answer to the PC for its actions: MNK VSK MGV BRT GRD GML MNKC TOT Single Chair 27 45 1 41 29 56 64 263 Co-Chair 52 60 29 45 26 39 92 343 ¶5. (SBU) De facto opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, his "For Freedom" movement, and the BNF campaigned for a single chairperson; a position Milinkevich would have been the likely contender for and one that would allow him to continue working in his capacity as the de facto coalition �A;leader. Other party leaders pushed for a co-chairmanship to secure their positions and ensure that no one person accumulated too much authority, support, and financial/material resources. PC Decides, Not Congress -------------- ¶6. (U) Likewise, most delegates (54%) voted in favor of choosing the members of the co-chairmanship at a PC session and not during the congress: MNK VSK MGV BRT GRD GML MNKC TOT At Congress 31 50 1 41 29 58 72 282 At PC 51 56 29 45 26 37 83 327 ¶7. (C) Congress organizer and head of the Party of Labor Aleksandr Bukhvostov on May 14 explained to Poloff that national and regional party leaders feared that voting for individuals at a congress would give such individuals a false mandate to seek greater power within the coalition, citing Milinkevich as an example. Therefore, Milinkevich campaigned for a congress vote whereas other political party leaders, with the exception of BNF, encouraged delegates to choose a vote at the PC. All Have a Seat at the PC -------------- MINSK 00000399 002 OF 002 ¶8. (U) Sixty-one percent of delegates decided to form a PC based on a quota system rather than a system in which each delegate group at the congress gets to choose one PC member for every 10 of their delegates: MNK VSK MGV BRT GRD GML MNKC TOT Per 10 delegates 23 48 0 32 22 47 64 236 Quota system 60 58 30 54 32 48 91 373 ¶9. (U) The quota system would allow five of the largest and most active organizations (BNF, BPC, BSDP, UCP, For Freedom) six members in the PC and seven other coalition organizations two members in the PC. At least half of each organization's PC members would have to be regional leaders. In addition, small organizations, such as youth, human right defenders, private entrepreneurs, and women organizations within the coalition, after forming smaller coalitions, would each select one representative to the PC. The quota system would allow all coalition organizations, no matter how small, a voice in the PC. An Exclusive Presidium -------------- ¶10. (U) Seventy-seven percent of delegates decided that the Presidium of the coalition should be comprised of leaders of delegate groups whose membership makes up at least 10% of the total number of participants at the congress: MNK VSK MGV BRT GRD GML MNKC TOT Presidium/5% 6 19 2 25 14 25 56 147 Presidium/10% 77 87 28 60 40 70 97 459 ¶11. (SBU) BNF deputy head Viktor Ivashkevich told Pol/Econ Chief on May 16 that due to the delegate's decision, only six people would be elected to the Presidium, since only the six groups would have the necessary amount of delegates. Smaller parties and other coalition organizations would be excluded. To make up for the lack of representation at the Presidium, 88% of delegates voted to allow the PC to define the functions and authority of the Presidium. Mixed Feelings On Conferences and Congress -------------- ¶12. (C) Opposition activists had mixed reviews about the conferences. Bukhvostov and Ivashkevich were pleased that no serious problems occurred and hoped that the congress would settle the differences within the coalition that had threatened to break it apart. However, regional leaders reported cases of manipulation, particularly signature fraud. Beloozyorsk activist and Brest BNF leader Yuriy Gubarevich on May 15 stated to Poloff that several delegates falsified signature lists or assumed the identity of other delegates in order to participate and vote at the conferences. Regional leaders in Mogilyov accused coalition observation committees of voiding or purposely "losing" delegates' signature lists without reason. Therefore, 57% of the region's delegates -- mainly from BNF, BSDP, and the Party of Freedom and Progress -- refused to participate in the regional conference. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The regional conferences served more than to just outline the agenda for the congress. They also gave regional activists a chance to voice their opinions and concerns to party leaders. Although Milinkevich's position lost, he did not lose by much, indicating that the coalition is split between Milinkevich (along with some members of the BNF) and the left-wing coalition (BPC, UCP, BSDP). We will report septel on the likelihood of Milinkevich's withdrawal from the congress and/or the coalition. ¶14. (C) In general keeping with the regime's unofficial commitment to EUR DAS Kramer (ref C),the authorities did not harass delegates or observing emboffs and did not make any serious attempts to disrupt the conferences. Moreover, we recently confirmed that the Presidential Administration approved the use of the MAZ Tractor Factory Convention Hall for the May 26-27 congress. The opposition used this facility for their October 2005 congress. Moore