YOUTH ACTIVISM DECLINING ABSENT UNIFYING NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000395

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: YOUTH ACTIVISM DECLINING ABSENT UNIFYING NATIONAL
EVENTS


Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) At a recent meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, youth leaders
listed fear, GOB propaganda, and general complacency with the
quality of life in Belarus as the main reasons for the
decline in youth activism. Indifferent to contrived
political maneuvers such as the opposition,s upcoming
congress, the leaders claimed that only elections or an
economic crisis could attract a significant amount of youth
interest at this point. However, in an attempt to better
coordinate activities, the youth leaders are exploring the
possibility of creating a youth coalition separate from the
established United Democratic Forces. End summary.

Fear, Complacency, and Propaganda Stymie Youth Activism
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2. (C) During a breakfast hosted by Pol/Econ Chief,
representatives from opposition youth group Malady Front (MF)
and youth wings of political parties overwhelmingly lamented
youths' lack of interest in joining groups promoting
democratic change in Belarus. Only MF spokesman Boris
Goretskiy,s organization could boast an increase in
membership this year. MF has grown despite obstacles such as
increased GOB harassment, prosecution of several of its and
the lack of a national unifying event.


3. (C) Former political prisoner Sergey Skrebets listed fear
of losing jobs and education benefits in addition to
intimidation by the BKGB as the major deterrents prohibiting
high levels of anti-regime youth activism. United Civic
Party (UCP) Youth Wing Chair Tatyana Dedok added that the
youths' relative satisfaction with their quality of life in
Belarus )- reasonable salaries, student stipends, education
benefits )- also contributes to the decline in activism
following the 2006 presidential election. Chair of the Lenin
Communist Union of Youth Dmitriy Yanenko commented that the
GOB,s tight control over the media keeps youth ill- or
misinformed about life outside of Belarus and about real
alternatives to the current regime, thus making it harder to
attract them to join a movement for change.


4. (C) Most of the representatives predicted that national
elections would motivate and unite the youth, although there
was debate over whether the parliamentary elections next year
would attract significant youth attention or whether the
opposition would have to wait until the presidential
elections in 2011. They agreed that an economic crisis could
serve as a catalyst to raise youth activism, noting that the
current troubling economic indicators caused by higher energy
prices are not enough.

Youth Are Indifferent Towards the Opposition,s Congress
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5. (C) The youth representatives were ambivalent about the
opposition,s upcoming congress. Unlike the congress before
the presidential elections where the opposition selected a
single candidate, the leaders did not believe there was a
clear reason for the opposition to hold the congress
scheduled for May 26-27. However, the group conceded that if
the congress served to at least unify the opposition and
consolidate actions and opinions, then it served some
purpose. A congress could also reiterate to the regime that
an opposition exists, is active, and is willing and unafraid
to work towards its goals.

Youth to Create Its Own Coalition?
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6. (C) When Pol/Econ Chief inquired about the possibility of
left and right youth parties working together, Yanenko
described new steps by youth groups to consolidate their
power apart from the already established opposition United
Democratic Forces. Yanenko told Pol/Econ Chief that
representatives from the youth wings of all the major
opposition parties and from youth NGOs, including MF,
Studentcheskaya Dumka, and the Flash Mob group, recently met
in Lithuania to discuss coordinating and consolidating their
activities. Upon returning to Belarus, the participants plan
to organize a committee to hold a founding congress for the
formation of a youth coalition (septel).

Next Steps for the Youth Groups
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MINSK 00000395 002 OF 002



7. (C) With summer vacation starting next month, the
representatives told Pol/Econ Chief that the majority of
their upcoming projects are scheduled for the fall. MF plans
to work on strengthening its regional structures, while the
UCP youth wing will focus on obtaining official registration.
Yanenko noted that the Communist youth will launch an
information campaign to advertise the results of the
congress, while Skrebets plans to hold a series of rock
concerts in neighboring countries to demonstrate support for
Belarusian political prisoners.

Comment
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8. (C) The formation of a youth coalition would be an
encouraging step towards promoting democratic change in
Belarus. However, even the youth activists recognize that a
united youth coalition is still far off and the complacency
and fears of many of the youth remain formidable obstacles,
especially given the absence of unifying national events,
such as presidential elections or economic crises.


9. (C) Malady Front,s secret to success -) i.e., growing
membership base despite unrelenting GOB harassment -) seems
to be the organization,s willingness to support any and all
opposition demonstrations without consideration of partisan
or ideological persuasion and its efforts to build the
capacity of its regional structures. Unfortunately, youth
groups like Malady Front are a rare and precious commodity in
Belarus, opposition movement.
Moore