EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - APRIL 26, 2007

UNCLAS MINSK 000353

SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - SIGNATURE ADDED
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - APRIL 26, 2007



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
--------------

- Opposition Leaders Warned for March 25 Demonstration (para. 2)
- Parliament Adopts Changes to Political Party/NGO Law (para. 3)
- Pro-Democratic Historians to Establish an NGO (para. 4)
- Political Prisoner's Mother Dismissed from School (para. 5)

International Trade and Investment
--------------

- Belarusian Imports Exceeded Exports (para. 6)

Domestic Economy
--------------

- Income Increase Spent on Goods and Services (para. 7)
- National Bank Reports Low Cash supply (para. 8)
- Energy and Alcohol Belarus' Breadwinners (para. 9)

- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 10)



CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------


2. Opposition Leaders Warned for March 25 Demonstration

Minsk city authorities on April 22 issued official warnings to
organizers of the March 25 opposition demonstration after allegedly
receiving "a number of complaints" from Minsk residents. De facto
coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, Belarusian National Front
(BNF) Leader Vintsuk Vyachorka, United Civic Party (UCP) Deputy Head
Igor Shinkarik, and Belarusian Social-Democratic Party "Gramada"
acting Head Anatoliy Levkovich were accused of holding an
unsanctioned demonstration that interrupted pedestrian and vehicle
traffic, hampered retail operations, and littered city streets. In
their warning, authorities threatened punitive measures against the
leaders if they attempted to hold other unauthorized demonstrations.
Shinkarik called the authorities' warning an intimidation and
blackmail tactic and demanded authorities show him the citizens'
alleged complaints.


3. Parliament Adopts Changes to Political Party and NGO Law

On April 20, the Belarusian National Assembly unanimously approved
amendments to the political party and NGO laws that would reportedly
ease registration and re-registration procedures for political
parties and NGOs. The national commission, responsible for
reviewing registration applications, will be liquidated, leaving the
Ministry of Justice the single registration agency. According to
the new amendments, only state-owned organizations will be allowed
to use the word "academy" in their names or award scientific degrees
and academic titles.


4. Pro-Democratic Historians to Establish an NGO

Radio Liberty reported on April 25 that 30 Belarusian independent
historians held a founding convention to establish the "Association
of Free Historians". Prominent historians and civil society
activists, including Nina Stuzhinskaya, Tatyana Protko, Sergey
Tarasov, and Igor Kuznetsov, discussed the current situation with
historical studies in Belarus and prepared the necessary documents
for registration. Tarasov doubted the NGO would be registered,
adding that it could be established as an affiliate of an
international organization.


5. Political Prisoner's Mother Dismissed from School

Vitebsk regional authorities on April 21 dismissed Tatyana
Severinets from her Russian language and literature teaching
position at a village school. Severinets, mother of jailed Malady
Front leader Pavel Severinets, was fired for "unexcused absences"
when she was on approved leave without pay to visit relatives in
Minsk and attend an education seminar in Poland. Students and
parents unsuccessfully petitioned authorities to reverse the
decision.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------


6. Belarusian Imports Exceeded Exports

According to an April 23 report by the Ministry of Economy, in
January-February Belarus' foreign trade deficit was USD 466 million.
The volume of foreign trade rose on the year by 113.3 percent,
including a 103.5 percent increase in exports and 123.7 percent rise
in imports. Belarus' main trade partners were Russia (48 percent),
Germany (7 percent),Netherlands (6 percent),Ukraine (5.9 percent),
Poland (4 percent),GB (2.7 percent),USA (2.4 percent) and China
(2.3 percent).

DOMESTIC ECONOMY
--------------


7. Income Increase Spent on Goods and Services

On April 23, the Ministry of Statistics announced that Belarusians'
total money income on March 1 increased 16.8 percent on the year to
USD 3.87 billion. In the same period, Belarusian's total spending
and savings grew to USD 3.92 billion, 77.3 percent of which was
spent on goods and services and 7.4 percent went into savings.
Currently, the average monthly salary in Belarus is USD 287 and the
average monthly pension is USD 130.


8. National Bank Reports Low Cash Supply

The National Bank on April 23 announced that in January-February,
consumer prices rose 2.6 percent while the country's money supply
decreased 6.7 percent. By March 1, cash in circulation accounted
for 22.5 percent of the money supply compared to 24 percent on the
same date in 2006.


9. Energy and Alcohol Belarus' Breadwinners

According to the Ministry of Statistics' April 20 press
announcement, 15 state-owned businesses accounted for one-third of
Belarus' USD 11.1 billion national budget revenues. Among the
greatest contributors to the budget were Belarus' two oil
refineries, Beltransgaz, regional electric power supply utilities,
Belaruskaliy fertilizer producer, Belarusian Steel Factory, the
country's leading alcohol producer, and principal mobile phone
service provider.


10. QUOTE OF THE WEEK

On April 22, Ruslan Prymak, deputy chief of the prison where
opposition leader Aleksadr Kozulin is being held, reported on
Kozulin's condition and made the following request:

"Reduce the volume of letters sent to Kozulin, as it was hard for
the censor to read all of that."











Stewart