OPPOSITION REMAINS UNITED AHEAD OF CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000343

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION REMAINS UNITED AHEAD OF CONGRESS

REF: A. MINSK 306


B. MINSK 262

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) At a meeting with EUR Deputy Assistant Secretary
Kramer, opposition leaders emphasized the importance of
intense cooperation and successful strategy implementation
going into and following the upcoming congress of democratic
forces. After the congress, the coalition plans to increase
its reach out to the Belarusian people and to widely
publicize its alternative vision for the country. The
leaders also discussed the effect of mass street actions on
the regime and to what extent Russia should be involved in
Belarus' transition to democracy. End summary.

Cooperation and Implementation are the Key Goals
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2. (C) On April 25, EUR DAS David Kramer met with opposition
leaders and their deputies. Following a discussion on the
possibility of a meeting between DAS Kramer and Presidential
Administration Deputy Head Natalia Petkevich (septel),de
facto opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich confirmed the
opposition's decision to hold seven regional conferences and
one large congress of democratic forces (ref A). Belarusian
Party of Communists Head Sergey Kalyakin and Milinkevich
stressed, however, that the opposition's continued
cooperation and implementation of the adopted strategies and
not the upcoming congress are the key issues on which the
opposition should focus.


3. (C) United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko emphasized
the importance of elaborating and publicizing the democratic
forces' strategy to achieving democratic reform and their
alternative ("small") constitution and economic reform plan.
Lebedko encouraged his colleagues to make use of the 18
months before the 2008 parliamentary elections to spread
widely the opposition's message to the Belarusian people.
Belarus Popular Front Head Vintsuk Vyachorka described the
need to reach out to all spheres of the Belarusian people,
particularly given the possibility of a future economic
crisis. He recommended explaining to voters the tenets of
democracy and the prospects of receiving international aid
from fellow democratic nations to alleviate the effects of
economic malaise.

Peaceful Demonstrations Reveal Fears of the Regime
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4. (C) According to Milinkevich, only massive peaceful street
actions will bring about the collapse of a dictatorial
regime. While Milinkevich noted that the opposition is not
yet strong enough to force the regime to dialogue, Vyachorka
believed that the mass arrests and detentions in the lead up
to the opposition's recent March 25 demonstration revealed
the weaknesses and fears of the regime (reftel). The
opposition believes that the April 26 Chernobyl March will be
the next test of the opposition's potential and the regime's
response.

Russia Should Not Lead Belarus to Democracy
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5. (C) The leaders rejected the idea that Belarus can only
become a democracy with Russia's help. Milinkevich stated
that Russia can play a role in Belarus' transition to a
democracy, but warned that Russia has its own goals,
including increasing its regional influence, which do not
coincide with Belarus' goals. Kalyakin agreed with
Milinkevich's assessment, but stressed that the opposition
should not discount Russia's influence on Belarus' political
and economic future. He encouraged the opposition to take
the lead in shepherding Belarus' democratic transition.

Comment
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6. (C) The opposition's pledge to continue cooperation
following the congress and implement their strategies and
goals represents a significant change from the divided
opposition of a month ago. It was also encouraging to
observe their commitment to use peaceful demonstrations and
aggressive public outreach to force the GOB into a dialogue.
Such plans reaffirm the coalition's efforts to take on more
responsibility for Belarus' transition to a democracy.

MINSK 00000343 002 OF 002


Stewart