DAS KRAMER ASSUAGES CONCERNS OF CIVIL SOCIETY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000342 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO SUBJECT: DAS KRAMER ASSUAGES CONCERNS OF CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS REF: A. MINSK 003 ¶B. MINSK 262 ¶C. MINSK 057 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On April 24, EUR DAS David Kramer met with representatives of Belarusian civil society NGOs during his visit to Minsk. The NGO leaders concurred that the Lukashenko regime appears anxious following the conflict with Russia over energy prices earlier in the year and seeks to better relations with the West by feigning an improved human rights policy. Assuaging the NGO representatives' concerns regarding the West's stance toward the GOB, DAS Kramer pledged no change of U.S. policy until the regime releases Belarus' political prisoners and undertakes true democratic reform. End summary. Russian Pressure Creates Dilemma for GOB -------------- ¶2. (C) When asked by DAS Kramer for their views on Belarus' relationship with Russia, the civil society leaders uniformly sensed nervousness among top members of the regime about Belarus' economic stability since the dispute with Russia's Gazprom over energy prices (ref A). Vyasna lawyer Vladimir Labkovich argued that the GOB's recent temporary suspension of students' stipends and retirees' pensions reveals the dilemma faced by the regime following the gas show down: On one hand the GOB must reduce government expenditures following increases in energy prices; on the other hand such measures alienate students and pensioners who previously supported Lukashenko. Belarusian Helsinki Committee (BHC) Executive Director Oleg Gulak added that the regime's fiscal restraints were adversely affecting GOB bureaucrats - another base of Lukashenko's support -- whose pay increases the GOB had until recently suspended. Despite Softer GOB Rhetoric, Repression Continues -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Gulak also contended that the pressure from Moscow explains why the regime is trying to create the impression of softening its repression through early releases of a few political prisoners, allowing some independent media to attend official GOB events, permitting BHC and other civil society NGOs to exist, and providing independent media watchdog Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ) an advance copy of the parliament's proposal for a new media law. BAJ Executive Director Aleksandr Starikevich expressed certainty that the regime would enact the new media law without changes recommended by BAJ as a means to further suppress independent media and pointed to the regime's mass detentions of opposition activists in the run up to the recent March 25 demonstration as proof of the GOB's relentless repressive nature (ref B). Gulak added that even if the regime repealed the most repressive December 2005 amendments to the Belarusian Criminal Code, the GOB would easily find other pretenses for arresting a ctivists. All participants concluded that the regime's repression has intensified since the 2006 presidential elections, irrespective of the GOB's recent conciliatory rhetoric to the West. Civil Society Leaders Fear Mix Messages from the West -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The civil society leaders also expressed concern that the GOB was receiving mixed messages from the West. Gulak cited GOB Ministry of Justice International Department Head and recently appointed Central Election Commission member Aleksander Lezhovskiy's recent participation in an OSCE conference in Vienna as an example of the West's mixed messages. Labkovich added Austria's granting him a visa appeared to contradict the EU visa ban. Starikevich observed that such apparent exceptions to the visa ban heighten the Belarusian public's skepticism regarding the degree of U.S. and EU influence over the Lukashenko regime since Belarusians generally believe that most GOB officials do not feel significant pressure. ¶5. (C) Reminding the civil society leaders of U.S. obligations as host country for the United Nations, DAS Kramer lamented that at times the United States and its European allies have to permit GOB officials to attend such conferences but noted the USG puts significant restrictions on visiting GOB officials vis a vis time of stay and range of travel from the UN. He added that the USG consistently MINSK 00000342 002 OF 002 declines GOB requests for meetings in New York. DAS Kramer's Visit Sends Clear Message to GOB -------------- ¶6. (C) Referring to Belarusian state media's extreme manipulation of statements by PACE President Rene van der Linden during his recent visit to Minsk, opposition entrepreneur Viktor Gorbachev also expressed civil society activists' deep concerns that the GOB also would view future high level visits as a softening of Western policy toward the regime (ref C). However, DAS Kramer assured the civil society leaders that the GOB would not perceive his visit as mixed in its message and pledged that the United States would not change its policy until the regime at a minimum releases political prisoners, drops politically motivated charges against opposition and civil society activists, and undertakes serious efforts at democratic reform. Moreover, he noted his warning to Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey Martynov on the previous day that the United States was prepared to increase pressure on the regime through policy instruments granted by Congress and the President under the Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Ac t. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The civil society leaders' concerns that the West may "go soft" and engage in dialogue with the GOB reflect the mood of a large segment of the pro-democracy movement in Belarus. However, DAS Kramer's message of continued and even increased U.S. pressure on the regime until political prisoners are released went a long way toward putting such concerns to rest, at least as far as the USG is concerned. We will continue to reiterate this message in the months that follow. Stewart