DAS KRAMER ASSUAGES CONCERNS OF CIVIL SOCIETY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: DAS KRAMER ASSUAGES CONCERNS OF CIVIL SOCIETY
LEADERS

REF: A. MINSK 003

B. MINSK 262

C. MINSK 057

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On April 24, EUR DAS David Kramer met with
representatives of Belarusian civil society NGOs during his
visit to Minsk. The NGO leaders concurred that the
Lukashenko regime appears anxious following the conflict with
Russia over energy prices earlier in the year and seeks to
better relations with the West by feigning an improved human
rights policy. Assuaging the NGO representatives' concerns
regarding the West's stance toward the GOB, DAS Kramer
pledged no change of U.S. policy until the regime releases
Belarus' political prisoners and undertakes true democratic
reform. End summary.
Russian Pressure Creates Dilemma for GOB
--------------


2. (C) When asked by DAS Kramer for their views on Belarus'
relationship with Russia, the civil society leaders uniformly
sensed nervousness among top members of the regime about
Belarus' economic stability since the dispute with Russia's
Gazprom over energy prices (ref A). Vyasna lawyer Vladimir
Labkovich argued that the GOB's recent temporary suspension
of students' stipends and retirees' pensions reveals the
dilemma faced by the regime following the gas show down: On
one hand the GOB must reduce government expenditures
following increases in energy prices; on the other hand such
measures alienate students and pensioners who previously
supported Lukashenko. Belarusian Helsinki Committee (BHC)
Executive Director Oleg Gulak added that the regime's fiscal
restraints were adversely affecting GOB bureaucrats - another
base of Lukashenko's support -- whose pay increases the GOB
had until recently suspended.
Despite Softer GOB Rhetoric, Repression Continues
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Gulak also contended that the pressure from Moscow
explains why the regime is trying to create the impression of
softening its repression through early releases of a few
political prisoners, allowing some independent media to
attend official GOB events, permitting BHC and other civil
society NGOs to exist, and providing independent media
watchdog Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ) an
advance copy of the parliament's proposal for a new media
law. BAJ Executive Director Aleksandr Starikevich expressed
certainty that the regime would enact the new media law
without changes recommended by BAJ as a means to further
suppress independent media and pointed to the regime's mass
detentions of opposition activists in the run up to the
recent March 25 demonstration as proof of the GOB's
relentless repressive nature (ref B). Gulak added that even
if the regime repealed the most repressive December 2005
amendments to the Belarusian Criminal Code, the GOB would
easily find other pretenses for arresting a
ctivists. All participants concluded that the regime's
repression has intensified since the 2006 presidential
elections, irrespective of the GOB's recent conciliatory
rhetoric to the West.
Civil Society Leaders Fear Mix Messages from the West
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The civil society leaders also expressed concern that
the GOB was receiving mixed messages from the West. Gulak
cited GOB Ministry of Justice International Department Head
and recently appointed Central Election Commission member
Aleksander Lezhovskiy's recent participation in an OSCE
conference in Vienna as an example of the West's mixed
messages. Labkovich added Austria's granting him a visa
appeared to contradict the EU visa ban. Starikevich observed
that such apparent exceptions to the visa ban heighten the
Belarusian public's skepticism regarding the degree of U.S.
and EU influence over the Lukashenko regime since Belarusians
generally believe that most GOB officials do not feel
significant pressure.


5. (C) Reminding the civil society leaders of U.S.
obligations as host country for the United Nations, DAS
Kramer lamented that at times the United States and its
European allies have to permit GOB officials to attend such
conferences but noted the USG puts significant restrictions
on visiting GOB officials vis a vis time of stay and range of
travel from the UN. He added that the USG consistently

MINSK 00000342 002 OF 002


declines GOB requests for meetings in New York.

DAS Kramer's Visit Sends Clear Message to GOB
--------------


6. (C) Referring to Belarusian state media's extreme
manipulation of statements by PACE President Rene van der
Linden during his recent visit to Minsk, opposition
entrepreneur Viktor Gorbachev also expressed civil society
activists' deep concerns that the GOB also would view future
high level visits as a softening of Western policy toward the
regime (ref C). However, DAS Kramer assured the civil
society leaders that the GOB would not perceive his visit as
mixed in its message and pledged that the United States would
not change its policy until the regime at a minimum releases
political prisoners, drops politically motivated charges
against opposition and civil society activists, and
undertakes serious efforts at democratic reform. Moreover,
he noted his warning to Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey
Martynov on the previous day that the United States was
prepared to increase pressure on the regime through policy
instruments granted by Congress and the President under the
Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Ac
t.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The civil society leaders' concerns that the West may
"go soft" and engage in dialogue with the GOB reflect the
mood of a large segment of the pro-democracy movement in
Belarus. However, DAS Kramer's message of continued and even
increased U.S. pressure on the regime until political
prisoners are released went a long way toward putting such
concerns to rest, at least as far as the USG is concerned.
We will continue to reiterate this message in the months that
follow.
Stewart