INDEPENDENT SURVEYS HAVING EFFECT ON VOTERS

UNCLAS MINSK 000182 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT SURVEYS HAVING EFFECT ON VOTERS REF: 06 MINSK 1117 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Independent pollsters Manaev and Vardomatskiy gave Ambassador the results of their latest polling conducted in January. Both pollsters' results indicate that public support for a union with Russia dropped by 10-15 percent to 35 percent. However, support for a closer relationship with the EU did not increase significantly, even though approximately 50 percent of people ages 18-25 believe Belarus should be part of the EU. Lukashenko's popularity rating (55 percent) and the evaluation of his job performance were not greatly affected by his handling of the oil and gas crisis. Only 20 percent of respondents have even heard of the E.U.'s 12-step proposal sent to the GOB in November of 2006. Sixty percent of those surveyed would like to have access to a new source of independent information. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Director of the independent polling service IISEPS Oleg Manaev on February 14 delivered to Ambassador the results of his latest survey, which interviewed 1474 people between January 20 and January 30. Director of the NOVAK independent polling service Andrey Vardomatsky on February 21 also gave Ambassador the results of his latest survey, which interviewed 1,100 people between January 28 and February 5. Both polls have a margin of error of just over three percent. Popularity of Union with Russia Down, EU Steady -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) Vardomatskiy noted that Belarusian support for any type of union with Russia decreased by 10-15 percent following the energy crisis. While 70 percent of Belarusians believe their country's relationship with Russia has worsened, the same percentage say their attitude toward Russia remains "good" or "very good", and 38 percent still view Russia as an ally. According to Vardomatskiy, 45 percent of respondents supported increased integration with both Russia and the EU, but 36.6 percent did not want closer relations with the EU and 41 percent did not want closer relations with Russia. "If today there were a referendum on choosing the future of development in Belarus, how would you vote?" IISEPS NOVAK Sept Jan Jan -------------- -------------- --- For a union with Russia 37.9(%) 27.3 For integration into the E.U. 23.4 21.0 35.7 For both 23.2 16.4 Against both 6.5 25.2 No answer -------------- 10.1 Against the E.U. 30.5 "If today there was a referendum on merging Belarus and Russia, how would you vote?" IISEPS NOVAK March Jan Jan -------------- --- --- Against unification 23.8(%) 39.3 40.1 For unification 57.5 35.1 35.2 Would not vote 8.6 14.0 10.6 Undecided/no answer 11.6 12.8 "If the consequences of increased prices on Russian energy become difficult for you personally, would you look more favorably on Belarus joining a union with Russia?" IISEPS No 49.0(%) Yes 35.1 Undecided/no answer 15.9 "Do you think the economic situation in Belarus would change if Belarus were to unite with Russia?" NOVAK Change for the better 31.3 Change for the worse 36.1 Will not change 17.9 Undecided/No answer 14.7 "How would you like to see the Russian-Belarusian union?" NOVAK Unification into a single state-equal basis 40.7(%) Belarus becoming a region within Russia 4.6 No need for unification-just good neighbors 44.4 Hard to say 10.7 No answer 1.1 "How is the process of establishing the Russian-Belarusian union state developing?" NOVAK Successfully; Union will be established soon 6.0(%) Slowly and inefficiently 35.6 The process has reached a deadlock 46.1 Hard to say/No answer 12.4 "If you believe the process to establish a Russian-Belarusian state is progressing slowly, then whom do you blame for this?" NOVAK ¶A. Lukashenko and GOB leaders 12.7(%) ¶V. Putin and Russian leaders 29.4 Belarusian opposition forces 7.7 Forces opposed to Putin in Russia 10.3 The U.S. and the EU 7.1 No hampering-process is moving at a natural pace 7.6 Union is a farfetched idea; neither state needs it 23.1 Other 0.2 Hard to say/No answer 15.4 Oil and Gas Conflict neither Helped nor Hurt Lukashenko -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Neither Lukashenko's support rating (55 percent) nor the level of trust that Belarusians place in him suffered as a result of his actions during the recent oil and gas conflict with Russia. Just over 66 percent of respondents believe he did the right thing and over 87 percent are sure he will remain in power despite any economic consequences that may result. Approximately 42 percent of those polled believe Lukashenko's popularity will increase as a result of the conflict. Nearly 90 percent of those surveyed see the price Russia charges Belarus for gas as unfair and 49 percent think Belarus should pay the same for gas as Russians do. Seventy-one percent of Belarusians view the GOB's decision to impose transit duties on Russian oil as an appropriate response. "After the recent conflict between Belarus and Russia over the gas and oil, how do you evaluate the course that Lukashenko is following?" IISEPS Unchanged: was not right, still is not 28.0(%) Changed: was right but is now wrong 7.8 Changed: was wrong, now is right 6.2 Unchanged: was and remains right 42.4 Undecided/no answer 15.6 "How do you evaluate the actions of A. Lukashenko during the Belarus/Russia oil and gas conflict?" IISEPS Strong politician, capable of achieving his goals 52.6(%) Weak politician, gave up too much 25.7 Undecided/no answer 21.7 "How do you relate to the decision of the Belarusian authorities to sell a 50 percent share of "Beltransgaz" to the Russian company "Gazprom"?" IISEPS Not satisfied 36.9(%) Satisfied 12.0 Not satisfied, but GOB had no choice 28.8 I do not care either way 12.8 Undecided/no answer 9.5 "As a whole, how do you evaluate the political situation in Belarus?" IISEPS NOVAK Safe 17.0(%) 7.4 Peaceful 54.0 67.8 Strained/Tense 20.3 19.5 Critical/explosively dangerous 3.8 0.9 Undecided/no answer 4.9 4.3 Society Looks Favorably on State Control of Market -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A large majority of Belarusians still expect the state to control the price of goods in their country, and 50 percent of respondents would rather work for state enterprises. "In your opinion, must the state adjust the price on goods and services?" IISEPS Yes 73.4(%) No 19.5 No answer 7.1 "What is your preference for Belarus?" IISEPS Market economy without sizable state adjustments 37.0(%) Market economy with sizable state adjustments 29.6 Planned economy 13.0 Other 4.3 No answer 16.1 "In your opinion, what form of property is more effective?" IISEPS Private 47.0(%) State 39.7 Other 5.6 No answer 7.7 Economic Protests Doubtful; Participate Unlikely -------------- --- ¶6. (SBU) Eighty-seven percent of those who responded to Vardomatskiy's poll said it was unlikely that any sort of mass action could occur protesting worsening economic conditions near their home, but up to a quarter indicated that they would be interested in participating in demonstrations. "If in your city (region) an action took place protesting worsening economic conditions (price increases and falling standard of living),are you prepared to take part?" IISEPS NOVAK No 66.8(%) 84.9 Yes 23.0 8.8 Hard to say 10.2 5.5 No answer 15.9 0.8 "How would you assess the current economic situation in Belarus?" NOVAK Very Good 1.2(%) Good 16.2 Fair 58.3 Bad 17.5 Very bad 2.6 Undecided/No answer 1.3 Local Election Results Inflated and Unfair -------------- ¶7. (SBU) IISEP and NOVAK results indicate that authorities inflated the official number of voters in the local council elections of January 14 by 10-15 percent. Eleven percent of those surveyed complained that they were compelled to vote early, and 4 percent stated they were pressured to vote for a certain candidate. Eighty-six percent of Belarusians feel that they have either "insignificant" or no influence in the political and economic life of the country. "In what areas of activity has President A. Lukashenko been completely successful, and in what areas has he not been?" IISEPS Successful/not/no answer Bringing order 64.1(%)25.9 10.0 Building an independent government 61.3 26.6 12.1 Economic development 57.6 30.7 11.7 The fight against crime 56.7 31.1 12.2 Not allowing oligarchs 54.7 28.2 17.1 Improving the standard of living 49.8 40.3 9.9 The fight against corruption 48.7 37.7 13.6 Cooperation with CIS countries 46.7 36.6 16.7 Development of Belarusian lang/culture 43.9 39.4 16.7 Strengthening morals and morality 43.7 35.8 20.5 Protecting democratic freedoms 33.0 47.5 19.5 Acceptable climate for business 30.4 49.8 19.8 Cooperation with the West 23.5 60.5 16.0 Creation of a union with Russia 20.7 66.0 13.3 "For whom did you vote in the presidential election on March 19, 2006?" IISEPS ¶A. Lukashenko 50.7(%) ¶A. Milinkevich 15.3 ¶A. Kozulin 4.0 ¶S. Gaydukevich 3.6 Against everyone 6.6 Declined to say 7.9 Did not vote 11.2 Undecided/No answer 0.7 "If tomorrow there were a presidential election, who would you vote for?" IISEPS NOVAK ¶A. Lukashenko 50.9(%) 53.8 ¶A. Milinkevich 11.4 3.4 ¶A. Kozulin 4.2 2.1 ¶C. Gaydukavich 1.2 0.6 Other 6.1 Undecided/no answer 23.6 "How did you vote on the 2004 referendum allowing A. Lukashenko to run for the office of president without term limits?" IISEPS Voted in favor 45.4(%) Voted against 25.4 Destroyed the ballot 2.2 Did not vote 19.0 Voted, but decline to say which way 5.7 Declined to say/No answer 2.3 "Did you vote in the elections for deputies of local Councils in January of 2007?" IISEPS Yes 61.8(%) No 37.7 No answer 0.5 "When did you vote?" IISEPS Early (9-13 Jan.) 23.4(%) Sunday, Jan. 14 38.5 Did not vote 37.8 No answer 0.3 "Did anyone compel you during the early elections to vote early or not?" IISEPS No 87.1(%) Yes 11.5 No answer 1.4 "For Freedom" Movement; What's that? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) IISEPS discovered that 77 percent of respondents had never heard of the opposition movements "Days of Solidarity" and "For Freedom". When those that were acquainted with the movements where asked, ten percent supported the movements and over eight percent were indifferent toward them. The survey indicates that national symbols, like the flag, crest, and anthem, are not effective tools for gathering support for the opposition, as only 12 percent of respondents disapprove of the symbols in their current form. TV More Popular than Radio or the Internet -------------- ¶9. (SBU) According to NOVAK, 88 percent of Belarusians relied on television as a source of information during the recent energy conflict with Russia, with 54 percent stating Belarusian TV broadcasts were the most objective source of information on the subject. Twenty percent reported having access to satellite TV. According to IISEPS, 25 percent of respondents stated TV was their most important source of domestic and international news. Only 15 percent of Belarusians use the internet daily or weekly, and 64 percent do not use it at all. "Soon from the territory of Poland, with the support of the E.U., there will be broadcast, in Belarusian and Russian, a new independent television channel. Would you like to watch what is shown on this channel?" IISEPS Yes 63.9(%) No 25.1 Undecided/now answer 11.0 "Not long ago from the states of the EU (in Russian and Belarusian) new radio stations began broadcasting into Belarus. Do you listen to their programs?" IISEPS Listen Do not European Radio for Belarus 6.5(%) 92.6 Radio "Ratsia" (Bialystok) 4.4 94.5 "Polonia" (Warsaw) 4.3 94.7 "Belarusian Hroniki" radio "Nemetskaya Volna" (Bonn) 3.5 95.5 Radio "Baltinskaya" (Vilnius) 2.8 96.3 "What television channels do you watch?" IISEPS Belarusian TV 90.5(%) Russian 87.4 Local 47.1 Cable 35.9 "Euro news" 22.1 Satellite 20.5 Polish TV 13.2 Weekly RTV 7.0 "What newspapers do you read?" Sovyetskaya Belarusiya 4.6(%) Argumenty i Fakty 1.6 Komsomolskaya Pravda 1.4 Mestnaya Gazeta 0.8 Narodnaya volya 0.7 7 Nyea 0.6 Respublika 0.6 Zvyazda 0.3 Svobodniye Novosti Plus 0.3 "What radio station do you listen to?" Mestnoye radio 0.4(%) Byeloruskoye radio 0.3 Radio Liberty 0.3 Belaruski Khroniki 0.2 Baltiskaya Khavalya 0.1 Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The recent conflict over oil and gas severely undermined support for a union with Russia in Belarus. State media brought this about through a carefully orchestrated propaganda campaign that skillfully avoided placing any blame for the conflict on Lukashenko. It is premature to judge whether the decrease in popularity of a union with Russia will translate into a corresponding increase in the popularity of a union with the EU (most likely because most Belarusians lack access to an independent source of knowledge on the EU). As long as Belarusian's sources of information remain dominated by state media outlets, public opinion will continue to closely track the course that the regime crafts for it. STEWART