Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MINSK152
2007-02-20 14:57:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - FEBRUARY 20, 2007
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000152
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - FEBRUARY 20, 2007
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000152
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - FEBRUARY 20, 2007
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
- U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus (para. 2) -
Lukashenko Wants to Cooperate with Europe (para. 3) - GOB
Delegation Meets with ILO (para. 4) -
Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet (para. 5) -
Lukashenko Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors (para. 6)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
- Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial (para. 7)
- German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin (para. 8)
- Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal (para. 9)
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
- 2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons (para. 10)
- GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports (para. 11)
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
--------------
- National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves (para. 12)
- January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy (para. 13)
SOCIETY
--------------
- Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006 (para. 14)
QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 15)
--------------
International Relations
--------------
2. U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus
According to a February 15 independent media article, the Public
Relations Department of the Mogilyov Regional Police detained a
group of ten U.S. citizens last week. The police charged them with
violating Article 185 of Belarus' Administrative code "Violation of
Rules of Foreign Citizens' Stay in Belarus", fined them USD 14.50
each, and then released them. This week the GOB informed the group
that they would be deported and unable to return to Belarus for at
least two years. The group found themselves in violation of the
Administrative Code because they failed to obtain prior permission
from the Education Ministry before they began teaching English at a
house of worship in Mogilev.
3. Lukashenko "Seeks Cooperation" with Europe
On February 13, independent media reported that Lukashenko had
stated that he was "fed up" with Russia. Then, while accepting
credentials from several ambassadors, Lukashenko stated that Belarus
is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation with Europe. He told
the French ambassador that the two countries share many approaches
to pressing international issues, and that Belarus respects France
because of its "significant role in Europe's political and economic
life." He also told the ambassador from Spain, who covers Belarus
from Russia, that their two countries should concentrate their
efforts into developing and diversifying bilateral trade.
Lukashenko promised that all the necessary conditions for the
diplomats' fruitful work would be created in Belarus.
4. GOB Delegation Meets with ILO
From February 13 to 16, a Belarusian delegation led by Deputy Prime
Minister Andrey Kobyakov held a round of consultations with
representatives of the International Labor Organization ILO in
Geneva. The meeting reportedly focused on the implementation of
recommendations given to the GOB by the ILO Commission of Inquiry
two years ago. The ILO gave the GOB until November 2006 to bring
national regulations into line with international standards or face
expulsion from the organization. According to the ILO executive
director, who made an official visit to Minsk in January of this
year, Belarus has made steps to implement some of the ILO
recommendations, but the situation with regard to trade unions'
rights remains serious.
5. Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet
In a February 13 article, independent media reported that the
Belarusian Ambassador to Russia had met with his Venezuelan
counterpart the previous day in Moscow. Reportedly, they discussed
the implementation of agreements reached by Presidents Lukashenko
MINSK 00000152 002 OF 003
and Chavez at their meeting in Minsk last summer. They also raised
the issue of expanding bilateral trade. Venezuela allegedly plans
to open an embassy in Belarus before the end of April.
6. Lukashenka Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors
Independent media reported on February 13 that Lukashenko had
accepted credentials from the new Ambassadors of Benin, Egypt,
Equatorial Guinea, France, Greece, Lithuania, Sierra Leone and Spain
to Belarus. Lukashenko told the Egyptian Ambassador that he views
Egypt as a major political and economic partner in the Middle East.
He also said that Belarus intends to increase economic cooperation
with Egypt and assemble machinery there.
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
7. Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial
On February 14, more than 100 Malady Front youth activists gathered
in Minsk's Liberty Square and took Valentine's Day messages to the
U.S., German, and French Embassies. DCM and Poloffs received the
messages and presented the activists with small gifts. Authorities
reportedly detained at least one activist. On February 13,
independent media reported that the GOB had denied the unregistered
opposition youth group, "Malady Front," permission to stage a
traditional Valentine's Day march. Authorities ostensibly denied
the application because those who signed the request had failed to
indicate their place of work.
8. German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin
In an interview with independent media on February 12, Irina
Kozulina (wife of imprisoned opposition former presidential
candidate Alexander Kozulin) denied reports that the German
Ambassador to Belarus had met with her husband. Apparently, a
translator incorrectly interpreted part of Kozulina's February 8
speech at the European Parliament in Brussels. She said, "it would
be a good sign if the German Ambassador were allowed to meet with"
her husband. However, the translator interpreted it as though the
Ambassador had already met with Kozulin.
9. Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal
On February 13, independent media reported that the appellate board
of the Vitebsk Regional Economic Court had rejected an appeal by the
local independent newspaper Vitebskiy Kuryer to overturn an earlier
court decision against the paper. A lower court had supported the
GOB's decision to cancel the paper's office space lease. The paper
now plans to appeal the case again in the Supreme Economic Court of
Belarus.
--------------
International Trade and Investment
--------------
10. 2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons
The Belarusian fertilizer company Belaruskaliy, one of the world's
largest producers of potassium fertilizers (14.85 percent),plans to
expand its exports in 2007 to 7.2 million tons. The domestic market
will receive approximately 950,000 tons. In 2006, Belaruskaliy
exports fell short of its projected volume of 6.3 million tons
because of a stalled contract with China, its major buyer. In terms
of real cash, this year exports will grow even faster. Last year,
the price per ton rose by USD 11 and likely will keep rising this
year. In 2007, Belaruskaliy will reportedly operate to its full
capacity but its production will fall 400,000 tons short of
fulfilling demand.
11. GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports
On February 12, Belarus' State Customs Committee ruled that starting
March 1, individuals departing Belarus in a motor vehicle more than
once within three days will have to declare all fuel in their tanks
and pay an export tariff. Since Belarusian gasoline and diesel fuel
are slightly cheaper than in neighboring countries, many people
routinely fill their tanks in Belarus to sell the fuel across the
border. With this measure, the government reportedly seeks to both
avoid a fuel shortage and encourage unauthorized exporters to
establish a legitimate business. The new requirement does not apply
to members of official foreign delegations, members of diplomatic
missions and international organizations, government officials on
business travel, truck drivers hauling international cargoes, or to
individuals traveling abroad for health recuperations or on a work
visa. Independent economic analyst Leonid Zaiko recently told us
that the new measure would likely be temporary and become redundant
when the price of car fuel in Belarus reaches a level comparable
with neighboring countries.
--------------
MINSK 00000152 003 OF 003
Domestic Economy
--------------
12. National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves
According to the National Bank of Belarus, Belarus' gold and foreign
exchange reserves fell from USD 1.753 billion in December 2006 to
USD 1.734 billion in January 2007. The country's reserves rose fast
over the last few years (e.g. 9.6 percent in 2006) and the plans for
2007 were also ambitious - USD 200-400 million. Given the higher
energy prices that Belarus has to pay this year, National Bank
representatives noted that Belarus will have to wait and see what
other sources the country will find to recoup the fall and achieve
this goal.
13. January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy
On February 13, the Belarusian Statistics Ministry reported that
Belarus' consumer price index grew 1.8 percent in January versus 0.8
percent in December 2006. The Statistics Ministry had projected an
aggregate 2007 inflation rate of Belarus of six percent, or 0.5
percent per month.
--------------
Society
--------------
14. Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006
On February 12, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of Belarus,
Valentin Sukala, announced that in 2006 the court sentenced nine
people to death and seven to life imprisonment. In 2005, the court
only sentenced two people to death. Sukala attributes the increase
in death sentences to a number of high-profile criminal cases
involving gang members who were convicted of committing 16 murders.
Sukala believed that the cases could not have ended in anything
other than a death sentence.
--------------
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
--------------
15. On February 12, during his interview with the Russian newspaper
"Zavtra," President Lukashenko offered the following criticism about
the current condition of the Union State with Russia:
"Russian authorities have put a noose around Belarus' neck. What
kind of union are we speaking about when a factory, a collective
farm, an owner of private business in Russia has privileged
conditions, getting gas three times cheaper than economic entities
in Belarus? Who needs such a union when we are oppressed this way?
Sooner or later the Russian people will stand up from their knees
and make the government carry out the right policy."
Stewart
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - FEBRUARY 20, 2007
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
- U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus (para. 2) -
Lukashenko Wants to Cooperate with Europe (para. 3) - GOB
Delegation Meets with ILO (para. 4) -
Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet (para. 5) -
Lukashenko Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors (para. 6)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
- Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial (para. 7)
- German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin (para. 8)
- Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal (para. 9)
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
- 2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons (para. 10)
- GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports (para. 11)
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
--------------
- National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves (para. 12)
- January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy (para. 13)
SOCIETY
--------------
- Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006 (para. 14)
QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 15)
--------------
International Relations
--------------
2. U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus
According to a February 15 independent media article, the Public
Relations Department of the Mogilyov Regional Police detained a
group of ten U.S. citizens last week. The police charged them with
violating Article 185 of Belarus' Administrative code "Violation of
Rules of Foreign Citizens' Stay in Belarus", fined them USD 14.50
each, and then released them. This week the GOB informed the group
that they would be deported and unable to return to Belarus for at
least two years. The group found themselves in violation of the
Administrative Code because they failed to obtain prior permission
from the Education Ministry before they began teaching English at a
house of worship in Mogilev.
3. Lukashenko "Seeks Cooperation" with Europe
On February 13, independent media reported that Lukashenko had
stated that he was "fed up" with Russia. Then, while accepting
credentials from several ambassadors, Lukashenko stated that Belarus
is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation with Europe. He told
the French ambassador that the two countries share many approaches
to pressing international issues, and that Belarus respects France
because of its "significant role in Europe's political and economic
life." He also told the ambassador from Spain, who covers Belarus
from Russia, that their two countries should concentrate their
efforts into developing and diversifying bilateral trade.
Lukashenko promised that all the necessary conditions for the
diplomats' fruitful work would be created in Belarus.
4. GOB Delegation Meets with ILO
From February 13 to 16, a Belarusian delegation led by Deputy Prime
Minister Andrey Kobyakov held a round of consultations with
representatives of the International Labor Organization ILO in
Geneva. The meeting reportedly focused on the implementation of
recommendations given to the GOB by the ILO Commission of Inquiry
two years ago. The ILO gave the GOB until November 2006 to bring
national regulations into line with international standards or face
expulsion from the organization. According to the ILO executive
director, who made an official visit to Minsk in January of this
year, Belarus has made steps to implement some of the ILO
recommendations, but the situation with regard to trade unions'
rights remains serious.
5. Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet
In a February 13 article, independent media reported that the
Belarusian Ambassador to Russia had met with his Venezuelan
counterpart the previous day in Moscow. Reportedly, they discussed
the implementation of agreements reached by Presidents Lukashenko
MINSK 00000152 002 OF 003
and Chavez at their meeting in Minsk last summer. They also raised
the issue of expanding bilateral trade. Venezuela allegedly plans
to open an embassy in Belarus before the end of April.
6. Lukashenka Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors
Independent media reported on February 13 that Lukashenko had
accepted credentials from the new Ambassadors of Benin, Egypt,
Equatorial Guinea, France, Greece, Lithuania, Sierra Leone and Spain
to Belarus. Lukashenko told the Egyptian Ambassador that he views
Egypt as a major political and economic partner in the Middle East.
He also said that Belarus intends to increase economic cooperation
with Egypt and assemble machinery there.
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
7. Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial
On February 14, more than 100 Malady Front youth activists gathered
in Minsk's Liberty Square and took Valentine's Day messages to the
U.S., German, and French Embassies. DCM and Poloffs received the
messages and presented the activists with small gifts. Authorities
reportedly detained at least one activist. On February 13,
independent media reported that the GOB had denied the unregistered
opposition youth group, "Malady Front," permission to stage a
traditional Valentine's Day march. Authorities ostensibly denied
the application because those who signed the request had failed to
indicate their place of work.
8. German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin
In an interview with independent media on February 12, Irina
Kozulina (wife of imprisoned opposition former presidential
candidate Alexander Kozulin) denied reports that the German
Ambassador to Belarus had met with her husband. Apparently, a
translator incorrectly interpreted part of Kozulina's February 8
speech at the European Parliament in Brussels. She said, "it would
be a good sign if the German Ambassador were allowed to meet with"
her husband. However, the translator interpreted it as though the
Ambassador had already met with Kozulin.
9. Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal
On February 13, independent media reported that the appellate board
of the Vitebsk Regional Economic Court had rejected an appeal by the
local independent newspaper Vitebskiy Kuryer to overturn an earlier
court decision against the paper. A lower court had supported the
GOB's decision to cancel the paper's office space lease. The paper
now plans to appeal the case again in the Supreme Economic Court of
Belarus.
--------------
International Trade and Investment
--------------
10. 2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons
The Belarusian fertilizer company Belaruskaliy, one of the world's
largest producers of potassium fertilizers (14.85 percent),plans to
expand its exports in 2007 to 7.2 million tons. The domestic market
will receive approximately 950,000 tons. In 2006, Belaruskaliy
exports fell short of its projected volume of 6.3 million tons
because of a stalled contract with China, its major buyer. In terms
of real cash, this year exports will grow even faster. Last year,
the price per ton rose by USD 11 and likely will keep rising this
year. In 2007, Belaruskaliy will reportedly operate to its full
capacity but its production will fall 400,000 tons short of
fulfilling demand.
11. GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports
On February 12, Belarus' State Customs Committee ruled that starting
March 1, individuals departing Belarus in a motor vehicle more than
once within three days will have to declare all fuel in their tanks
and pay an export tariff. Since Belarusian gasoline and diesel fuel
are slightly cheaper than in neighboring countries, many people
routinely fill their tanks in Belarus to sell the fuel across the
border. With this measure, the government reportedly seeks to both
avoid a fuel shortage and encourage unauthorized exporters to
establish a legitimate business. The new requirement does not apply
to members of official foreign delegations, members of diplomatic
missions and international organizations, government officials on
business travel, truck drivers hauling international cargoes, or to
individuals traveling abroad for health recuperations or on a work
visa. Independent economic analyst Leonid Zaiko recently told us
that the new measure would likely be temporary and become redundant
when the price of car fuel in Belarus reaches a level comparable
with neighboring countries.
--------------
MINSK 00000152 003 OF 003
Domestic Economy
--------------
12. National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves
According to the National Bank of Belarus, Belarus' gold and foreign
exchange reserves fell from USD 1.753 billion in December 2006 to
USD 1.734 billion in January 2007. The country's reserves rose fast
over the last few years (e.g. 9.6 percent in 2006) and the plans for
2007 were also ambitious - USD 200-400 million. Given the higher
energy prices that Belarus has to pay this year, National Bank
representatives noted that Belarus will have to wait and see what
other sources the country will find to recoup the fall and achieve
this goal.
13. January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy
On February 13, the Belarusian Statistics Ministry reported that
Belarus' consumer price index grew 1.8 percent in January versus 0.8
percent in December 2006. The Statistics Ministry had projected an
aggregate 2007 inflation rate of Belarus of six percent, or 0.5
percent per month.
--------------
Society
--------------
14. Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006
On February 12, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of Belarus,
Valentin Sukala, announced that in 2006 the court sentenced nine
people to death and seven to life imprisonment. In 2005, the court
only sentenced two people to death. Sukala attributes the increase
in death sentences to a number of high-profile criminal cases
involving gang members who were convicted of committing 16 murders.
Sukala believed that the cases could not have ended in anything
other than a death sentence.
--------------
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
--------------
15. On February 12, during his interview with the Russian newspaper
"Zavtra," President Lukashenko offered the following criticism about
the current condition of the Union State with Russia:
"Russian authorities have put a noose around Belarus' neck. What
kind of union are we speaking about when a factory, a collective
farm, an owner of private business in Russia has privileged
conditions, getting gas three times cheaper than economic entities
in Belarus? Who needs such a union when we are oppressed this way?
Sooner or later the Russian people will stand up from their knees
and make the government carry out the right policy."
Stewart