BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION INVIGORATED BY U.S. VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001035 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/UMB, L, AND EUR/ACE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/17 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BO SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION INVIGORATED BY U.S. VISIT Classified By Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Ref: A) State 164397 B) Minsk 976 C) Minsk 1018 D) Minsk 1006 E) Minsk 1011 F) Minsk 853 Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Following a Belarusian opposition delegation's December 3-8 visit to the United States, party leaders from the United Democratic Forces (UDF) met with the Ambassador December 13. All expressed gratitude for the meetings with President Bush and Secretary Rice, and said that the private conversations among opposition figures during the trip had also been very useful. The UDF leaders all spoke of the importance of unity, including a role for Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement in the 2008 parliamentary election campaign. Formation of a united candidate list remains the main concern for the UDF leaders; they expressed a hope that the list and an election strategy would be completed by January 15. They noted that agitation for European values and against the GOB's social benefit cuts would continue. Finally, Anatoliy Lebedko and others said they feared that new GOB travel restrictions were already being used against the opposition. The Ambassador said that the USG would offer political and diplomatic support for free and fair elections in Belarus, and added that GOB restrictions on freedom of movement could affect the USG's decision on a Jackson-Vanik waiver for Belarus in 2008. End summary. Following Washington, Candidate List, Election Plans Key -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador held a debriefing session for three political party leaders who took part in the opposition's recent visit to Washington (ref A) -- Anatoliy Lebedko (United Civic Party-UCP),Sergey Kalyakin (Belarusian Party of Communists-BPC),and Anatoliy Levkovich (Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada"QBSDP(G)). Levon Barshchevskiy, the newly elected head of the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) (ref D),was also in attendance. [Note: Aleksandr Milinkevich was invited to attend as well, but was outside Minsk when the meeting was held. End note.] Lebedko praised the visit as the opposition's most productive foreign trip ever and noted that it gave the participants -- particularly UDF party heads and Milinkevich -- a chance for frank discussions on "For Freedom's" relations to the rest of the UDF and the upcoming 2008 parliamentary campaign. Levkovich added that the visit had generated interest not only in Minsk but also outside the capital. Levkovich said that visit participants continued to receive requests for feedback on the visit from opposition media based outside Minsk. ¶3. (C) As for priorities facing the opposition, Lebedko and Levkovich highlighted election-planning issues, including the completion of a common candidate list and election strategy, and a list of districts to be targeted for particular emphasis in the campaign. Kalyakin noted that the UDF would hold several meetings in the coming days, including consultations with USAID implementers NDI in Kyiv December 20-25, and IRI in Vilnius December 27. These meetings were designed to iron out some of the final problems related to coalition building in the regions, and to determine a plan of action for 2008. Levkovich said that the candidate list should be complete by January 15. [Note: This date has slipped considerably over the past few months. The most recent previous estimate was that the UDF's unified candidate list would be complete by December 31 -- ref B. End note.] Election Plan To Include Election Process Campaign -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) One element that is in the opposition's 2008 parliamentary election plan already is a campaign to improve and democratize Belarus' electoral practices. As the delegation mentioned in Washington, UDF leaders have proposed that the EU lead a dialogue to include both the Lukashenko regime and the opposition. This proposed dialogue would have a strict agenda, to include issues such as reform of the electoral law, opposition participation on MINSK 00001035 002 OF 003 electoral commissions and election observation, and would have a strict timeframe. According to Kalyakin, such a dialogue had to take place in the first quarter of 2008 to be worthwhile, and the goal of the conference should be to set goals to be met before the international community could recognize the 2008 vote as free and fair. According to Lebedko, this idea had already been shared with EU Heads of Mission in Minsk and with Javier Solana's office by letter. He said that the proposal already had the support of the OSCE and Council of Europe Parliamentary Assemblies. [Comment and note: While Belarusian electoral law and practice are in dire need of fundamental reform, the UDF is likely to make release of political prisoners a condition for such a dialogue, and hence, almost certainly a non- starter for the Lukashenko regime. End comment and note.] Activism to Continue as Well -- Action Unites -------------- ¶5. (C) When the group described past and future opposition street campaigns, all agreed that nothing unites the opposition better than action. Lebedko said that when entrepreneurs had demonstrated in Minsk December 10 (ref E),their protest enjoyed the active participation of many of the UDF parties, including UCP, BPF, and BSDP(G),and of civil society groups like "Malady Front" as well. Kalyakin said that the UDF would continue campaigns in support of European values and against the GOB's social benefit cuts. He added that the UDF had applied for permission for 800 pickets to be held December 16, but that the GOB had refused most and had approved only two. According to Kalyakin, the reasons for refusal ranged from the cynical to the nonsensical, and included one refusal in Minsk due to "bad weather." In spite of these unconstitutional actions, the UDF was undeterred, according to Kalyakin, and would organize informational pickets to pass out copies of the BPC's "Tovarishch" and leaflets dedicated to the impending benefit cuts. [Note: According to press reports, such stands were organized in 30 cities across Belarus December 16, with 1000 opposition activists taking part. The organizer, BPC Deputy Chair Valeriy Ukhnalyov praised the participation of a wide range of UDF entities. End note.] Fears of Division Present as Well -------------- ¶6. (C) While most of the discussion was positive and focused on opportunities for unity and for the inclusion of Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement, Sergey Kalyakin raised the specter of division as well. He contended that calls by some, including social democrats loyal to Nikolay Statkevich, for an opposition with two wings -- one center right and pro-EU and another for pro-Russia leftists -- were part of a divide and conquer strategy direct from the BKGB. [Note: Statkevich, though a social democrat, is close to Milinkevich's "For Freedom" and other center-right forces. End note.] The DCM assured Kalyakin that the Embassy did not subscribe to that approach, and consistently explained to its interlocutors that despite differing individual tactics the opposition was united around the common goal of democracy in Belarus. BPF'S Barshchevskiy for Unity, Opposes Boycotts -------------- -- ¶7. (C) BPF leader Levon Barshchevskiy, in his first meeting with the Ambassador since his election, admitted that following his recent return to active political leadership, he had much to learn. That said, he noted that his election as BPF Chair was a vote for consistency in BPF policy, and for continued participation in the UDF. He expressed strong opposition to the idea of a boycott, noting that in his first press conference as party leader journalists had tried to provoke him on this account. Barshchevskiy said that while internal BPF development was of paramount concern for him, the strengthening of BPF did not have to be to the detriment of the UDF as a whole. He said that he planned a meeting with Milinkevich to discuss the relations between BPF and "For Freedom," and expressed the hope that this face-to-face meeting would eliminate "any disagreements" in these relations. Leaders Concerned with GOB Visa Policy -------------- ¶8. (C) All of the leaders raised concerns about the GOB's MINSK 00001035 003 OF 003 new policy replacing the system of exit permission stamps with a computerized "blacklist." Anatoliy Lebedko reported that the Ministry of Interior had informed him, following a delay in passport renewal, that he had been included on a list of 100,000 Belarusians not allowed to travel abroad. According to Lebedko, the police said that he would be denied permission to leave the country because of two criminal cases opened against him in 2004, both for statements made in the press, and that had never been resolved. Levkovich and Kalyakin both expressed recent difficulties in passport issuance and feared the prohibition would cover them as well. The Ambassador noted that this was a serious issue and one the Embassy would follow closely, since freedom of travel was a key condition for a Jackson-Vanik waiver and normalized trade relations. USG Support for Free and Fair Elections -------------- ¶9. (C) In her remarks to the party leaders, the Ambassador noted that Washington had been delighted with the opposition delegation's visit. She added that one of the key themes, unity, was one that was important both for opposition politicians and activists and for the international donors who support them. The Ambassador noted that in her statements to the press earlier in the day, she had condemned the beating of "Malady Front" Acting Head and delegation participant Dmitriy Fedaruk (ref C). [Note: In response, Lebedko said that UDF leaders planned to visit Fedaruk in the hospital and to issue a statement on the beating as well. End note.] The Ambassador said that she had raised this year's expansion of USG sanctions on Belarus with the press as well, noting that additional sanctions could be imposed. She said that the USG was extremely interested in free and fair elections in Belarus and had begun to couple language on this with calls for the release of political prisoners. The Ambassador and DCM both argued for active, unified participation in the 2008 polls, and against boycotts. The Ambassador called on the party leaders to continue to communicate with the Embassy so that diplomatic and political pressure could be brought to bear in the interest of free and fair elections. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) One of the first fruits of the opposition's recent visit to Washington is a renewed commitment to unity. In marked comparison to previous meetings (ref F) the UDF co- chairs were more positive about Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement, and the role it could play in 2008 parliamentary election efforts. Now that BPF's leadership contest is over, and new party leadership remains committed to participation in the UDF, one of the biggest hurdles to the completion of a single UDF slate has been removed. The UDF's ability to complete the slate and a common campaign strategy by mid-January will be a test of their ability to move beyond statements of unity to unified political action. Stewart