SUBJECT: NARCO-KILLINGS CONTINUE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 006228 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR KCRM PINR MASS MX SUBJECT: SUBJECT: NARCO-KILLINGS CONTINUE REF: A. MEXICO 5401 ¶B. MEXICO 6196 ¶C. TIJUANA 1193 ¶D. MONTERREY 981 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Although estimates of the total number of organized crime-related killings in the first 11 months of 2007 vary between GOM sources and newspaper tallies -- ranging between approximately 2,200 to 3,200 -- Mexico has witnessed more of these types of killings this year, compared to an estimated 2120 for all of 2006. According to Mexico City newspaper Diariomonitor, there were approximately 303 drug-related homicides in October and 289 in November. While July registered the lowest number of deaths, May was the most violent month with 396 killings. (See reftel) The majority of these killings continue to occur in traditional areas of illegal trafficking zones, such as Sinaloa, Baja California, Guerrero, Chihuahua, and Michoacan. Law enforcement officials continue to be targeted. We estimate approximately 248 law enforcement officials and 22 soldiers have been murdered in the first 11 months of the year. In spite of the unabated violence, GOM officials remain resolved to crack down on the cartels, scoring several key arrests and a record-breaking seizure. -------------- Sinaloa: The most violent state -------------- ¶2. (U) In the month of November, Sinaloa once again topped the list of all Mexican states with 66 narco-related killings. Sinaloa has suffered more homicides than any other state over the last three decades, with over 7,000 murdered over the last 10 years. According to a study conducted by the State Attorney General's Office, there were 588 murders linked to organized crime from January 2007 thru October ¶2007. The study also reports that 80% of the murders were committed with firearms, and 60% of those were high-power firearms (i.e. AK-47s, AR-15s, and machine guns). Sinaloa is considered a strategic bridge for the trafficking of drugs to the U.S. and is the birthplace for the heads of Mexico's principal cartels. -------------- Police continue to be targeted -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Police officers continue to figure prominently among homicide victims. Mexican authorities have on occasion argued that the killings of law enforcement officers are the consequence of their taking the fight to the drug traffickers. Since our last report (reftel) in October, approximately 30 current and former law enforcement officials and soldiers were killed. Some of the more high-profile killings include: -- On November 24, two policemen were gunned down by 10 heavily armed men in the southern state of Oaxaca. -- On December 4, only three days after he was named the new police commander of Tecate in the state of Baja California, Jose Juan Soriano Pereira -- was assassinated by a heavily armed gang that stormed his home and shot him 50 times while he lay in his bed. Hours prior to his killing, Soriano had participated in a police raid that had detected a "narco-tunnel" leading to the U.S. -- On December 4, Juan Carlos Huerta Rodr!guez, the police commander of Cuitzeo in the state of Michoacan was killed only three days after the police commander of the town of Arteaga was killed. -------------- Politicians and Musicians also targeted -------------- ¶4. (U) Local politicians have also been targeted by the drug gangs. On November 30, Juan Antonio Guajardo Anzaldua, former PRD federal deputy and mayor of the border town Rio Bravo, and five others were shot dead in Rio Bravo's central plaza. Days before his assassination, Guajardo complained MEXICO 00006228 002 OF 004 that a group of armed men had intimidated him. ¶5. (U) The cartels have also allegedly assassinated several musicians/vocalists of "grupero" music bands. The death toll of these musicians has climbed to 13 over the past year and a half -- with the latest three this month. On December 7, Mexican authorities reported the third murder of a musician in less than a week. Sergio Gomez, vocalist for the top-selling group K-Paz de la Sierra, was killed in Michoacan on December 4. A vocalist of another well-known band, Zayda Pena Arjona, was killed the same day in Matamoros, Tamaulipas. Some analysts compare the way in which many of these entertainers have been killed with cartel-style killings, because most of them were excessively brutal with signs of torture. Although there is no solid evidence that links these homicides to the cartels, the killings still contribute to a sense of public unease. -------------- GOM response -------------- ¶6. (U) Since our last report (reftel),officials announced a number of high-profile arrests, convictions, and contraband seizures. One of the most notable law enforcement actions was on October 30. PGR and SEDENA scored the most noteworthy achievement when they made the largest cocaine confiscation (23.5 metric tons) in Mexican and world history resulting from an intelligence-based anti-narcotics operation. ¶7. (U) Other noteworthy blows since our last report (reftel) include: -- On Nov. 8, Mexican police, working in conjunction with U.S. authorities, captured Pedro Alatorre Damy, the alleged head of finances for the huge Sinaloa drug cartel. -- On December 2, SSP announced that as part of Joint Operation La Laguna, police arrested nine members of a kidnapping ring linked to the Gulf Cartel and the Zetas. -- On December 10, SSP Undersecretary of Police Strategy and Intelligence Patricio Patino Arias announced that 11 suspected Zetas were arrested in Campeche State's Cuidad del Carmen. -- On December 12, Mexican Army elements detained one of the top leaders of the Gulf Cartel along with three of his subordinates in an operation in the state of Tamaulipas. Marco Antonio Ramirez, aka "Tony la Palma" reportedly ran large-scale operations in the states of San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas, Queretero, Hidalgo and Mexico. Mexico's Defense Secretariat said he had recently taken over for another major SIPDIS Gulf Cartel leader taken down last June, Luis Reyes Enriquez, aka "El Rex." -- On December 16, federal police officers arrested eight members of a gang linked to the Gulf drug cartel following a chase in the border city of Reynosa. Authorities seized five vehicles, 14 rifles, 9 pistols of different calibers, 9 grenades, and more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition and 21 radios from the suspects. The gang operated in the northern cities of Monterrey and Torreon, working with the Gulf cartel's armed wing, known as Los Zetas, the secretariat said. ¶8. (U) In sum, during the period January 1 to November 30, the Attorney General of the Republic (PGR) reported the following confiscations and arrests: 48.6 metric tons of cocaine, 1.94 metric tons of marijuana, 35.7 tons of precursor chemicals for methamphetamines, 688,635 rounds of ammunition, 537 grenades, 7,456 weapons (over 3,500 of which were long arms),100 boats, and 51 airplanes. During this period 13,918 individuals were prosecuted for drug-related offenses and 15 "capos" and deputy "capos" were captured. -------------- Record Extraditions -------------- ¶9. (U) Mexico has also extradited 80 fugitives to the U.S. in the course of 2007, the overwhelming majority of which were Mexican nationals, far exceeding the total number of extraditions any other year in history, including the previous record of 63 in 2006. Of the 80 surrendered in 2007, over one-third were wanted in the U.S. for drug MEXICO 00006228 003 OF 004 trafficking offenses and included major cartel leaders, including Gulf leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen. An even greater number of U.S. citizen fugitives, including drug traffickers, were returned by deportation to face justice in the U.S. ¶10. (U) As part of a longer term strategy, the GOM has legislation pending in Congress that would render Mexico's justice system more transparent and give law enforcement authorities more tools to prosecute organized crime cases (see reftel B). -------------- --- GOM's counter-narcotics (CN) operations press-on -------------- --- ¶11. (U) Meanwhile, the GOM continues to send federal forces into various states. After the November 30 execution of former Tamaulipas mayor Guajardo, amidst continued violence in the region, President Calderon acknowledged that traffickers had infiltrated politics and increased the number of troops (on December 5) deployed to the state of Tamaulipas on Mexico's northeastern border with the U.S. -------------- Criticism of the GOM's CN ops -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Calderon's CN counternarcotic efforts are not without their critics. On November 20, Sonora Governor Eduardo Bours Castelo public demanded the withdrawal of all Federal Investigative Agency (AFI) personnel from the state, after AFI personnel raided the home of Bours Castelo's bodyguard (on November 19),which Sonora officials say was groundless. Governor Bours Castelo said that fighting organized crime requires commitment and coordination, which he feels is absent among the federal agents. Bours' decision was supported by Governor of Coahuila Humberto Moreira. Both PRI governors said there should be more coordination between state and federal police, though Moreira said that he had no problem with the AFI's behavior in Coahuila. ¶13. (SBU) Although most security analysts believe the massive presence of military soldiers in the border region has helped reduce criminal operations, they also cautiously reference similarities to Fox's "Operation Safe Mexico" in 2004. Based on this experience, some analysts hypothesize that everything will return to its previous "narco-equilibrium" as soon as the army's special mobilization ends and the support contingents from other military zones withdraw. ¶14. (SBU) Others continue to voice concern conveyed by human rights groups concern about the militarization of Mexico's public security efforts and increased risk for human rights abuses. In their view, the military is assuming too much of an active role in the daily lives of the local communities. Besides patrolling the streets, soldiers are guarding international bridges and highway access to different towns. ¶15. (U) Meanwhile, Mexican legislators are calling for a reinforcement of intelligence capabilities. A November 22 report drafted by the Chamber of Deputies and Senate National Security Committees specified that shortcomings in Mexico's intelligence gathering capabilities contributed to the proliferation of organized crime and guerrilla organizations. -------------- Cartels' Reaction: Searching for New Routes -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Embassy security analysts believe the operations launched by the federal government since December 2006 have pushed the drug cartels to seek new routes. Chihuahua, Mexico, and Baja California states have been particularly affected. The permeability of Mexico's southern border, taken together with the impoverished socioeconomic level of Central American migrants, has offered traffickers a pool of new recruits ready to serve as "drug mules." ¶17. (U) Director of the Mexican Observatory on Drugs Elias Razur Antonio claims that drug-traffickers have reopened the old South American-Yucatan Peninsula-Florida route for trafficking drugs, "taking advantage of relaxed surveillance by the USG which is busier with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." Razur says that the Sinaloa Cartel is disputing MEXICO 00006228 004 OF 004 control of the revalued Caribbean routes with the Gulf Cartel. Colombian security expert Gilberto Zuluaga also recently claimed at a money laundering and drug-trafficking seminar that Merida represents not only a new global drug trafficking route, but also the main hub for shipping cocaine to the U.S. and Europe. -------------- Juarez Cartel Back On Top? -------------- ¶18. (SBU) On November 12, a PGR and military intelligence report was leaked to local daily newspaper Milenio that claimed the Juarez gang was the most powerful drug gang in Mexico. (Note: Most security specialists thought that the Juarez Cartel had lost power following the death of its leader, Amado Carrillo Fuentes, during plastic surgery to alter his face in 1997. End Note.) The previous consensus was that the three most powerful cartels were Sinaloa, Gulf and Tijuana. However, the intelligence report -- as reported by Milenio -- claimed that the Juarez cartel, now run by Victor Carrillo Fuentes, operated in 21 of Mexico's 32 states. In comparison, the Sinaloa has a presence in 17 states, the Tijuana gang in 15, and the Gulf cartel - which is generally viewed by specialists as the most violent - only operates in 13 states. The report argues that while the other gangs have been feuding, the Juarez cartel has been building up its business and moving into new markets. (Note: In the middle of the year, academics and other drug specialists claimed that the Gulf and Sinaloa gangs agreed a ceasefire because their battles were weakening each other. End Note.) Comment: Embassy security analysts are skeptical of the claim that the Juarez cartel is the most powerful. If this were the case, we would likely see more violence extending to the Juarez cartel as they try to aggressively protect their drug routes. End Comment. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Although narco-killings remain constant, a continuing string of high-profile arrests and seizures, suggests President Calderon's resolve has not wavered in taking this fight to the cartels. The GOM's aggressive drug-enforcement stance has led many observers and analysts to conclude that Mexican efforts have indeed succeeded in disrupting drug-trafficking flows into the U.S., and they cite as proof official studies that indicate dwindling stocks and higher prices for cocaine in many U.S. cities. Moreover, the U.S. law enforcement community at post agrees that USG-GOM security cooperation and information sharing is at an all-time high. No doubt formal agreement to greater U.S. assistance in the context of the Merida Initiative will strengthen the GOM's resolve and produce even greater cooperation in our joint efforts to put traffickers on the defensive. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT