CALDERON CRITICS MARCH ON THE ZOCALO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000508 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: CALDERON CRITICS MARCH ON THE ZOCALO Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay, Reasons : 1.4(b/d). REF: A. MEXICO 00413 ¶B. MEXICO 00391 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On January 31, demonstrators thronged Mexico's central square or "Zocalo" to protest the rising cost of staple foods, and call for wage increases. Participating organizations, mainly labor and peasant groups, issued a statement called the "Zocalo Declaration," demanding food and energy sovereignty, the defense of salaries and jobs, a renegotiation of NAFTA's agricultural provisions, and an emergency wage increase to offset the rising prices of food and gasoline. Most participants remained in the Zocalo to hear failed PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) speak one hour after the union-organized event. The self-proclaimed "legitimate President" announced five actions paralleling the demands of the Zocalo Declaration. AMLO also implored the crowd to attend the next National Democratic Convention (NDC),scheduled for March 21-23. In response to the protest, President Calderon issued a press statement the same day saying that he shared their concerns and would do all he could to improve living standards, lower poverty, and create jobs. In our view, this first major protest in the capital since Calderon's inauguration was neither a stunning success nor an abject failure. While the turnout was lower than at many of AMLO's post-electoral rallies, the organizers succeeded in reminding Calderon that his critics remained poised to exploit every problem that comes up on his watch. End summary. The Calderon Administration Faces First Major Protest -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 31, throngs of labor and peasant activists, bolstered by AMLO supporters, flocked to the streets in the first major protest against the new administration. The demonstration was the most high profile of a series of nationwide protests against the increasing prices of tortillas and other staple foods, and for higher wages (see reftels). ¶3. (U) The demonstration began with several separate marches originating at various sites, to converge on the Zocalo. Overall participation is unclear, given the various starting points. Crowd estimates at the Zocalo -- which are notoriously unreliable and politicized in Mexico -- ranged from 40,000 to just under 100,000. Labor Union Participation and AMLO's Role -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Originally, organizers of the march said there would be widespread participation in the event by Mexico's organized labor movement. At one point, almost all of the country's nationally organized unions had committed themselves to participating. However, when the National Worker's Union (UNT) -- a broad federation of officially independent unions, loosely associated with the PRD -- tried to give AMLO a prominent role in the event, labor unity quickly shattered (see reftel A). ¶5. (SBU) The UNT and the PRD ultimately backtracked and stated that AMLO would just be another citizen participating in the march. The promised scaling back of AMLO's role in the march convinced some of the PRI-affiliated and independent unions to take part in the event after all. Among the unions that participated in the event were the SME, the Social Security workers union, the telephone workers union, the airline pilots union, and the PRI-affiliated National Peasants Confederation (CNC). The national unions which declined to participate included the National Federation of Workers and Peasants (CROC),the Workers' Congress (CT),and the construction workers' union (CTM). The Zocalo Declaration -------------- ¶6. (U) Protesters were marshaled into the Zocalo by trade unions and proto-revolutionary groups such as the Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO),the organization MEXICO 00000508 002 OF 003 responsible for much of the unrest in Oaxaca in recent months. Protesters greeted speakers with a series of chants, most frequently the pun, "menos PAN y mas tortillas." (Note: PAN is the acronym for Calderon's political party and also the Spanish word for "bread.") ¶7. (U) At the Zocalo, rally organizers -- primarily labor and peasant group leaders -- called for more government action in balancing wages and prices, as well as more involvement by civil society organizations. Participating organizations signed a statement called the "Zocalo Declaration," calling for food and energy sovereignty, the defense of salaries and jobs, a renegotiation of NAFTA's agricultural provisions that will require the opening up of Mexico's corn and bean markets to U.S. and Canadian imports next year, and an emergency wage increase to offset food and gasoline price hikes. Television journalist Veronica Velasco was chosen to read the declaration. AMLO's Five Actions -------------- ¶8. (U) Shortly after the official program ended, a rally organizer asked the crowd to stay for AMLO's presentation, which began an hour later. Greeted by cries of "Presidente," AMLO spoke from a separate stage -- presumably a condition imposed by the rally organizers for AMLO's participation. Showing their support, various PRD heavyweights shared the stage with AMLO, including former Mexico City Mayor Alejandro Encinas, National PRD President Leonel Cota, PRD co-founder Porfirio Munoz Ledo, and PRD congressional coordinators Senator Carlos Navarrete and Deputy Javier Gonzalez Garza. When asked why current Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard (PRD) failed to attend, a PRD contact told POLOFF that it would not be appropriate for Ebrard to attend a protest during working hours. (Comment: This restriction did not prevent his predecessor, Alejandro Encinas, from attending many of AMLO's post-electoral demonstrations. We suspect that Ebrard is gradually trying to put distance between himself and his erstwhile political patron. End note.) ¶9. (U) During his speech, AMLO announced five actions -- similar to those made in the Zocalo Declaration -- calling for (1) an emergency salary increase; (2) a support program for producers of staple goods and the imposition of guaranteed fixed prices; (3) a renegotiation of the NAFTA provisions which will permit the free entry of U.S. and Canadian corn and beans starting next year; (4) an immediate subsidy to reduce the price of tortillas, and (5) the immediate approval of the anti-monopoly and "law of competitive prices" initiative -- a proposal in the Mexican senate supported and sponsored by FAP parties. AMLO also criticized PRIista Senator Francisco Labastida Ochoa, President of the Senate's Energy Commission, for proposing a bill that would allow for private investment in Pemex. He urged protesters to attend the next NDC, which will take place in the Zocalo from March 21-March 23. GOM Response -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In response to the demonstration, President Calderon issued a statement, saying he shared the protesters' concerns and would do all he could to improve living standards, lower poverty, and create jobs. He also said he would "pursue anyone who was trying to speculate or rig prices in food markets and that he would do all he could to ensure that "wages would be sufficient and reasonable." He also proposed to implement programs to help strengthen Mexican agriculture and instructed his Economy, Agriculture, and Labor Secretariats to negotiate with protest leaders. Meanwhile, Mexico's central bank issued a warning that the GOM should not try to fix tortilla prices nor should it increase wages to make tortillas more affordable. Central bank governor Guillermo Ortiz said that both these policies would be counter-productive. (Note: To help bring tortilla prices down, Calderon has already authorized more corn imports (good for consumers but unpopular among Mexican corn farmers) and persuaded a number of leading tortilla merchants to accept a voluntary price cap of MX$8.5 (US$0.80) per kilo, with uneven success, though some market analysts say tortilla prices are beginning to fall. The GOM has also announced a monthly subsidy for poor families to help them meet rising energy prices (see reftel B.)) MEXICO 00000508 003 OF 003 Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) We would characterize yesterday's demonstration neither as a success nor as a failure. The turnout at the event -- considerably reduced from that seen at AMLO's post-electoral rallies -- reflects that at the moment, this protest movement lacks the energy and momentum of the post-electoral protests. Likewise, the organizers' wariness about AMLO's participation suggests that even among GOM critics, there are those who prefer to keep him at arms' length. On the other hand, the event was significant enough to score front page coverage on the capital's leading dailies, and to garner considerable national attention as well. In that sense, it served as a pointed reminder to the new administration that the opposition can mobilize a dedicated core of GOM critics at will, and that this core could easily serve as the nucleus of a far larger movement, should circumstances deteriorate. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity BASSETT