CALDERON CRITICS MARCH ON THE ZOCALO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000508

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON CRITICS MARCH ON THE ZOCALO


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay, Reasons
: 1.4(b/d).

REF: A. MEXICO 00413

B. MEXICO 00391

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) On January 31, demonstrators thronged Mexico's
central square or "Zocalo" to protest the rising cost of
staple foods, and call for wage increases. Participating
organizations, mainly labor and peasant groups, issued a
statement called the "Zocalo Declaration," demanding food and
energy sovereignty, the defense of salaries and jobs, a
renegotiation of NAFTA's agricultural provisions, and an
emergency wage increase to offset the rising prices of food
and gasoline. Most participants remained in the Zocalo to
hear failed PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador (AMLO) speak one hour after the union-organized
event. The self-proclaimed "legitimate President" announced
five actions paralleling the demands of the Zocalo
Declaration. AMLO also implored the crowd to attend the next
National Democratic Convention (NDC),scheduled for March
21-23. In response to the protest, President Calderon issued
a press statement the same day saying that he shared their
concerns and would do all he could to improve living
standards, lower poverty, and create jobs. In our view, this
first major protest in the capital since Calderon's
inauguration was neither a stunning success nor an abject
failure. While the turnout was lower than at many of AMLO's
post-electoral rallies, the organizers succeeded in reminding
Calderon that his critics remained poised to exploit every
problem that comes up on his watch. End summary.

The Calderon Administration Faces First Major Protest
-------------- --------------


2. (U) On January 31, throngs of labor and peasant
activists, bolstered by AMLO supporters, flocked to the
streets in the first major protest against the new
administration. The demonstration was the most high profile
of a series of nationwide protests against the increasing
prices of tortillas and other staple foods, and for higher
wages (see reftels).


3. (U) The demonstration began with several separate marches
originating at various sites, to converge on the Zocalo.
Overall participation is unclear, given the various starting
points. Crowd estimates at the Zocalo -- which are
notoriously unreliable and politicized in Mexico -- ranged
from 40,000 to just under 100,000.

Labor Union Participation and AMLO's Role
--------------


4. (SBU) Originally, organizers of the march said there would
be widespread participation in the event by Mexico's
organized labor movement. At one point, almost all of the
country's nationally organized unions had committed
themselves to participating. However, when the National
Worker's Union (UNT) -- a broad federation of officially
independent unions, loosely associated with the PRD -- tried
to give AMLO a prominent role in the event, labor unity
quickly shattered (see reftel A).


5. (SBU) The UNT and the PRD ultimately backtracked and
stated that AMLO would just be another citizen participating
in the march. The promised scaling back of AMLO's role in
the march convinced some of the PRI-affiliated and
independent unions to take part in the event after all.
Among the unions that participated in the event were the SME,
the Social Security workers union, the telephone workers
union, the airline pilots union, and the PRI-affiliated
National Peasants Confederation (CNC). The national unions
which declined to participate included the National
Federation of Workers and Peasants (CROC),the Workers'
Congress (CT),and the construction workers' union (CTM).

The Zocalo Declaration
--------------


6. (U) Protesters were marshaled into the Zocalo by trade
unions and proto-revolutionary groups such as the Asamblea
Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO),the organization

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responsible for much of the unrest in Oaxaca in recent
months. Protesters greeted speakers with a series of chants,
most frequently the pun, "menos PAN y mas tortillas."
(Note: PAN is the acronym for Calderon's political party and
also the Spanish word for "bread.")


7. (U) At the Zocalo, rally organizers -- primarily labor
and peasant group leaders -- called for more government
action in balancing wages and prices, as well as more
involvement by civil society organizations. Participating
organizations signed a statement called the "Zocalo
Declaration," calling for food and energy sovereignty, the
defense of salaries and jobs, a renegotiation of NAFTA's
agricultural provisions that will require the opening up of
Mexico's corn and bean markets to U.S. and Canadian imports
next year, and an emergency wage increase to offset food and
gasoline price hikes. Television journalist Veronica Velasco
was chosen to read the declaration.

AMLO's Five Actions
--------------


8. (U) Shortly after the official program ended, a rally
organizer asked the crowd to stay for AMLO's presentation,
which began an hour later. Greeted by cries of "Presidente,"
AMLO spoke from a separate stage -- presumably a condition
imposed by the rally organizers for AMLO's participation.
Showing their support, various PRD heavyweights shared the
stage with AMLO, including former Mexico City Mayor Alejandro
Encinas, National PRD President Leonel Cota, PRD co-founder
Porfirio Munoz Ledo, and PRD congressional coordinators
Senator Carlos Navarrete and Deputy Javier Gonzalez Garza.
When asked why current Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard (PRD)
failed to attend, a PRD contact told poloff that it would not
be appropriate for Ebrard to attend a protest during working
hours. (Comment: This restriction did not prevent his
predecessor, Alejandro Encinas, from attending many of AMLO's
post-electoral demonstrations. We suspect that Ebrard is
gradually trying to put distance between himself and his
erstwhile political patron. End note.)


9. (U) During his speech, AMLO announced five actions --
similar to those made in the Zocalo Declaration -- calling
for (1) an emergency salary increase; (2) a support program
for producers of staple goods and the imposition of
guaranteed fixed prices; (3) a renegotiation of the NAFTA
provisions which will permit the free entry of U.S. and
Canadian corn and beans starting next year; (4) an immediate
subsidy to reduce the price of tortillas, and (5) the
immediate approval of the anti-monopoly and "law of
competitive prices" initiative -- a proposal in the Mexican
senate supported and sponsored by FAP parties. AMLO also
criticized PRIista Senator Francisco Labastida Ochoa,
President of the Senate's Energy Commission, for proposing a
bill that would allow for private investment in Pemex. He
urged protesters to attend the next NDC, which will take
place in the Zocalo from March 21-March 23.

GOM Response
--------------


10. (SBU) In response to the demonstration, President
Calderon issued a statement, saying he shared the protesters'
concerns and would do all he could to improve living
standards, lower poverty, and create jobs. He also said he
would "pursue anyone who was trying to speculate or rig
prices in food markets and that he would do all he could to
ensure that "wages would be sufficient and reasonable." He
also proposed to implement programs to help strengthen
Mexican agriculture and instructed his Economy, Agriculture,
and Labor Secretariats to negotiate with protest leaders.
Meanwhile, Mexico's central bank issued a warning that the
GOM should not try to fix tortilla prices nor should it
increase wages to make tortillas more affordable. Central
bank governor Guillermo Ortiz said that both these policies
would be counter-productive. (Note: To help bring tortilla
prices down, Calderon has already authorized more corn
imports (good for consumers but unpopular among Mexican corn
farmers) and persuaded a number of leading tortilla merchants
to accept a voluntary price cap of MX$8.5 (US$0.80) per kilo,
with uneven success, though some market analysts say tortilla
prices are beginning to fall. The GOM has also announced a
monthly subsidy for poor families to help them meet rising
energy prices (see reftel B.))


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Comment
--------------


11. (C) We would characterize yesterday's demonstration
neither as a success nor as a failure. The turnout at the
event -- considerably reduced from that seen at AMLO's
post-electoral rallies -- reflects that at the moment, this
protest movement lacks the energy and momentum of the
post-electoral protests. Likewise, the organizers' wariness
about AMLO's participation suggests that even among GOM
critics, there are those who prefer to keep him at arms'
length. On the other hand, the event was significant enough
to score front page coverage on the capital's leading
dailies, and to garner considerable national attention as
well. In that sense, it served as a pointed reminder to the
new administration that the opposition can mobilize a
dedicated core of GOM critics at will, and that this core
could easily serve as the nucleus of a far larger movement,
should circumstances deteriorate.


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