PAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPELLS GOOD NEWS FOR CALDERON

UNCLAS MEXICO 002903 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR MX SUBJECT: PAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPELLS GOOD NEWS FOR CALDERON REF: MEXICO 2490 ¶1. Summary: During the June 2-3 national assembly of the ruling National Action Party (PAN),delegates chose new National Council members, who will be responsible for electing the party's next president in March 2008. An estimated 60-70% of the Council members are reported to favor President Calderon's camp over the right-wing faction led by party president Manuel Espino, seriously weakening Espino's chances for reelection. End summary. ¶2. Building on earlier state party elections in which Calderon energetically supported loyalists and in which he and Espino ended up nearly tied for support among the first 150 National Council members elected, the PAN national assembly held in Leon, Guanajuato produced an additional 150 Council members with a definite preference for Calderon. According to party estimates, at least 90 out of 150 newly-elected Council members voted in by 9,000 PAN delegates are Calderon supporters. The President's private secretary, Cesar Nava, won the first position of the National Council, making him a strong contender for the next party president. A number of other Calderon supporters joined the Council, including First Lady Margarita Zavala, Calderon's Chief of Staff Juan Camilo Mourino, his deputy Carlos Flores, Secretary of Government Francisco Ramirez, and Secretary of SIPDIS Social Development Beatriz Zavala. ¶3. A number of leading Espino supporters were voted out of the Council, including Secretary General of the PAN Jose Espina, PAN Director for the State of Mexico Francisco Garate, ex-gubernatorial candidate for the State of Mexico Ruben Mendoza Ayala, and former Secretary of Communication and Transportation (SCT) Pedro Cerisola. Carlos Abascal, the former Secretary of Government, was re-elected to the Council and is considered a party presidential candidate from the PAN's right wing faction. ¶4. Espino himself was booed throughout his 15-minute speech during the opening day, with hecklers calling him a "traitor," "hypocrite," and "liar." The heckling appears to have been the result of growing party frustration with Espino, rather than with anything specific that he said. The booing intensified when Espino commented that he and his supporters were "the enemies of no one." By contrast, both President Calderon--who called for new party leadership--and former President Fox--who offered strong support for the Calderon administration--were loudly applauded. ¶5. Comment: The PAN national assembly marked a turning point in the longstanding rivalry between Calderon and Espino, in which the majority of PAN delegates placed the future of party leadership with more moderate, progressive elements. This significantly increases the chances that a Calderon supporter will become party president in March 2008, strengthening the President's ability to govern with a united party backing him. The latest national polls indicate that President Calderon enjoys a 65% approval rating among the Mexican population. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT