MEXICAN AUTO SECTOR OPTIMISTIC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000270 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EIND EINV ELAB ETRD MX SUBJECT: MEXICAN AUTO SECTOR OPTIMISTIC REF: MEXICO 7032 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Experts on the Mexican auto industry believe the industry will not only weather the expected slow down in U.S. demand, but will maintain its competitive edge over cheaper labor countries in Asia and South America. While production and exports will likely hold steady, domestic sales figures are likely to remain sluggish. In 2006, Mexico's auto sector experienced increases across the board, but fell short of production, export, and sales objectives. Production increased 23 percent, while auto sector exports came closest to meeting the goal with a 29.5 percent increase. Domestic sales rose less than 1 percent due to a variety of factors decreasing demand. Investment in the sector also increased as auto makers expanded operations across the country. End Summary Production Increased 23 Percent in 2006 -------------- ¶2. (U) According to figures from the Mexican Association of the Automotive Industry (AMIA),Mexico's total light vehicle production for 2006 was 1,978,771 units, a 23 percent increase over 2005 production, but less than the Secretariat of Economy's (SECON) goal of 2 million units. ¶3. (U) General Motors maintained the lead in production (502,544 units - 17.3 percent increase) but Ford motors experienced the largest yearly gain with a 137 percent production increase for a total of 349,901 units, due in part to the popularity of the new Ford Fusion brand which is exclusively produced in Ford's Hermosillo, Sonora Plant. Nissan and Volkswagen produced 408,439 and 347,020 units, respectively, increases of 17 and 15.5 percent. Toyota, which opened its first Mexican plant in late 2004, produced 33,209 units in its first ever annual posting. Honda produced 24,262 units, a 3.1 percent increase. The two companies that saw declines are Renault, which was previously produced in Mexico by Nissan and has since ceased production, and Daimler Chrysler, which saw an 8.8 percent decrease (313,387 units). Exports Rose 30 Percent -------------- ¶4. (U) With 1,536,768 units, exports were closest to reaching the SECON goal of 1.6 million units, a 29.5 percent increase over 2005. Ford Motors (and the Fusion brand) was the driving force behind the rise with a 185.6 percent increase in exports for a total of 302,780 units in 2006. Ford's strong posting also moved its export market share from 5th to 2nd place, tying Daimler Chrysler at 19.7 percent. General Motors maintained its leading market share at 26.9 percent and 412,807 units (23 percent increase). Nissan's exports grew 33.5 percent to 208,820 units and a 13.6 percent market share, while Volkswagen's 18.5 percent export increase gave it a yearly total of 283.564 units and an 18.5 percent market share. New entrant Toyota exported 10,111 units for a .7 percent market share, and is expected to surpass Honda (15,107 units, 4.2 percent increase) in the near future. Renault's small export numbers fell 57.3 percent to 138 vehicles, while Daimler Chrysler's 303,441 units was a 9.2 percent decrease from 2005. ¶5. (U) Except for the Caribbean, exports to countries outside North America increased in 2006. Experts still stress the need for Mexico to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market for auto sales. Carlos Ghosn, Chairman of Nissan-Renault, said that Mexico lacks the logistics and infrastructure to send products to Europe and South America. He suggested that Mexico continue investing in infrastructure to make such operations more efficient and competitive. In 2006, exports to Mexico's NAFTA partners were 1,349,768 units or 88 percent of all Mexican exports, a 26.8 percent increase from 2005. Exports to Europe grew 51.3 percent to 122,898 units, mainly attributable to Volkswagen's increased exports. Exports to South America increased 83 percent to 54,112 units. Domestic Sales Remain Sluggish -------------- ¶6. (U) Domestics sales for 2006 were 1,139,718, a .7 percent increase, and below the goal of 1.2 million. GM and Nissan continued to dominate the market with 21.5 (245,090 units) MEXICO 00000270 002 OF 003 and 20 percent (228,315 units) market share, followed by Ford (15.6 percent - 177,595 units),Volkswagen (11.8 percent - 135,027 units),and Daimler Chrysler (11.3 percent - 128,446 units). Among the 11 most popular auto brands in Mexico (those with sales totaling more than 10,000 annually),only four - Daimler Chrysler, Honda, Mitsubishi, and Toyota - saw sales increase for 2006. Toyota experienced the largest sales gain at 70.1 percent, a result of increased Mexican promotion. ¶7. (U) According to Emilio Mosso, Director of Automotive Industry at SECON, the apparently stagnant sales numbers are a result of two main factors that affected demand during ¶2006. First, many consumers chose to defer vehicle purchases because of the uncertainty inherent in a presidential election year. Second, with the strength of the construction and housing markets during 2006, many Mexicans chose to purchase homes instead of new vehicles. He explained that, although fewer cars were purchased, the cars were generally higher quality and more expensive, which bodes well for future years' sales projections. ¶8. (U) Conversely, the Mexican Association of Automobile Distributors (AMDA) and AMIA are up in arms about a recent change in the tax law that reduced the tax exemption for new car purchases (reftel). They claim the reduction -- to cars valued at less than 175,000 Mexican Pesos, MXP (16,204 USD) from the previous 300,000 MXP (27,777 USD) -- will push even more Mexicans to import used cars from the U.S. and further threaten domestic auto sales. Adres Ocejo, president of AMDA, said that the tax coupled with the Used Car Import decree of 2005 that allows Mexicans to import and register U.S. cars between 10-15 years of age, could lead to 50,000 fewer cars being sold in 2007. Investment Strong in 2006 -------------- ¶9. (U)Despite the anticipated slow down in U.S. demand, investments in 2006 were strong as companies sought to expand production at Mexican plants. The auto industry announced investments for 2006 totaling more than 4 billion USD for modernizing and expanding production lines. Daimler Chrysler announced a 1 billion USD investment for modernizing its Toluca plant. Ford invested 2 billion USD in its Sonora auto parts plant. Toyota announced a 37 million USD investment in its Baja California plant to increase production capacity. Honda's 64 million USD investment in its Jalisco plant was also geared towards increasing operations. ¶10. (U) Cesar Flores, president of AMIA, told EconOff that continued investment is a product of continued demand for the models produced in Mexican factories. These tend to be smaller, cheaper, and more gas efficient than the models produced elsewhere. Demands for these models would show smaller decreases even as total U.S. auto demand declined. He expected Mexico to see a period of short, slow growth, but was optimistic that the U.S. deceleration would not lead to problems for the Mexican auto sector. Technology Key to Maintaining Competitiveness -------------- ¶11. (U) The industry is looking to technology to increase their global competitive edge. Rodulfo Raul Leon, in charge of auto industry investment at SECON, explained that Mexico is poised to become a North American auto engineering center due to its overabundance of automotive engineers and the U.S. shortage. He explained that SECON is supporting joint automotive engineering hubs between the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM),the University of Windsor in Ontario, and the University of Michigan, that it hopes will increase Mexico's desirability with U.S. automakers while providing additional opportunities for Mexican students. He also said that Mexican companies are liaising with universities to set up their own centers. These centers aim to give students hands on experience which in turn would produce better job candidates for the businesses. For example, Technological Solutions of Mexico has established a research and development center in a Guadalajara university run jointly by students and company engineers. Comment -------------- ¶12. (U) Comment: The auto industry in Mexico can expect to continue its promising path. Even if oil prices decline, the MEXICO 00000270 003 OF 003 Ford Fusion, PT Cruiser, Volkswagen Jetta, and other small models produced in Mexico will maintain their popularity. As the Big 3 continue reacting to rising production costs in the U.S., they can be expected to at least sustain their profitable production centers south of the border. ¶13. (U) The threat of Asia and South American competition is small, though constantly growing. Vehicles produced in Mexico, which has a more developed industry and a longer history of producing cars for export, are of much higher quality than the competitors, particularly those produced in China. However, as the competition increases production, their quality will improve. Proximity to the U.S. also remains important, but lack of infrastructure and high energy costs keep Mexico from taking full advantage of its geographical advantage. Many companies wishing to expand find themselves constrained by the cost of shipping inputs and finished product via truck or the rundown rail systems that cannot handle increased traffic. If Mexico can solve these problems, while persisting in its efforts to increase the technological value added to its products, the auto industry will be able to maintain its edge in the global market. End Comment. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA