MEXICO HOSTS PLAN PUEBLA-PANAMA SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001815 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017 TAGS: GOV PREL MX SUBJECT: MEXICO HOSTS PLAN PUEBLA-PANAMA SUMMIT Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BA RCLAY, JR. FOR REASONS: 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Leaders from seven Central American nations, plus Colombia, met with Mexican President Felipe Calderon in Campeche April 9-10 for a two day summit aimed at revitalizing the long-stagnant Plan Puebla Panama (PPP),a regional development initiative proposed by former President Vicente Fox in 2001. Also attending were the governors of eight of the nine southern and central Mexican states which are involved in the PPP. At the summit, the participants agreed to strengthen the PPP's institutions as well as to promote its goal of greater economic and social development in the region. The leaders recommitted themselves -- at least on paper -- to moving forward with a plan to build an oil refinery in Central America, as well as to pursue bioenergy sources, with Colombian assistance. They also agreed to further regional infrastructure development, including a regional "information highway," the improvement of roads and border crossings, and the connection of electrical grids internationally. The summit demonstrated that the Calderon administration is serious about its desire to play a larger role in Latin America than Mexico has in the recent past. End summary. Calderon Seeks to Retake Leadership Role in Region -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Both in remarks made to participating Mexican governors before the summit and to his fellow heads of state, Calderon emphasized his administration's determination to develop closer relations with Latin America. In a private meeting with the governors, he reportedly said "It's time also to look to our roots, to our identity, to the south of the continent. It's time to become closer with our Latin American brothers, especially the Central Americans." To the visiting heads of state he said: "My government is determined to pursue a Latin American agenda that seeks to link Mexico more closely with Central America, the Caribbean and South America." ¶3. (SBU) Much of the summit's final communique focused on somewhat vague measures intended to strengthen the PPP's institutional mechanisms. For example, the communique mentioned creating channels to facilitate cooperation between the members' foreign ministries and each country's lead official on PPP. The leaders also agreed to harmonize the PPP with the Central American Integration System. They also invited UN agencies, the OAS, the OECD, and the European Union to contribute ideas to the PPP agenda. They called for the creation of two advisory councils, one focused on economic development and the other on social development, to define the PPP's priorities, with input from private sector representatives. Among the priorities will be border enhancements, infrastructure, transportation, renewable energy, telecommunications, education, improved access to potable water, sustainable forestry, and attention to natural phenomena such as climate change. Broadening PPP's Membership -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Notwithstanding the opposition of Nicaragua, reportedly arising out of a territorial dispute with Colombia, the summit participants agreed to admit Colombia as a full PPP member. The participants also agreed to admit Ecuador and the Dominican Republic as observers. In fact, Colombia seemed to enjoy favorable consideration at the summit, with Calderon holding a well-publicized bilateral meeting with visiting President Alvaro Uribe. In their bilateral meeting, Calderon and Uribe agreed that the Mexico-Colombia Bilateral Committee on Cooperation Against Illegal Trade in Narcotics and Psychotropic Drugs would meet soon to restructure itself. Mexico agreed with the leaders of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador that a counter-narcotics plan should be prepared and presented to the USG for support. Security an Issue -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Security was clearly one of the main points of discussion, although accounts differ on how much progress was made. Tabasco State Governor Andres Granier, speaking on MEXICO 00001815 002 OF 003 behalf of the Mexican governors participating in the summit, reportedly requested a stronger Mexican military presence along the country's southern border to control illegal immigration from Central America. The national leaders agreed to organize cooperative efforts to fight drug trafficking and other organized crime, especially along their shared borders, including through information sharing. They reportedly also concurred that progress in the fight against drug trafficking required a greater commitment of USG resources. ¶6. (C) Although he did not personally attend the summit, Gustavo Mohar, the Deputy Director of Mexico's intelligence agency (CICEN),told poloff that he had heard from Mexican attendees that the Central American leaders gave the impression of being absolutely overwhelmed by their countries' security woes, including narcotics, gangs, lack of resources, and the degraded nature of their own security infrastructure. But although they were focused on the problem, they demonstrated no strategic sense of where to go from here, and Mohar doubts they are prepared at this point to prepare a considered request for assistance. Although they referred to their upcoming meeting with President Bush, they gave no indication of what specifically they planned to raise with POTUS on the security front. ¶7. (C) In a meeting with visiting CODEL Thompson yesterday (septel),Mexican Secretary of Government Ramirez Acuna twice referred to the Campeche summit. He noted the importance of bringing Central America into our own security thinking, cited arms flows into the region as particularly troubling and said the U.S., Canada and Mexico together have to make a better investment in the region through infrastructure development, increased trade, etc. Mexican SRE officials we spoke with yesterday said they would be prepared to discuss the summit in greater detail in the days ahead. Mixed Signals on Energy -------------- ¶8. (C) While the Central American leaders at the summit announced that they would "re-launch efforts to construct a Central American refinery" proposed by President Fox in 2005, in fact, the project remains moribund. Early in March 2007, President Calderon told Central American leaders privately that despite the Fox administration's commitment to provide 230,000 barrels per day of Mayan crude for the proposed facility at a price to be set annually, Mexico could now only commit to provide 80,000 barrels per day. Without a guaranteed crude supply at a well-defined price, it would be very difficult for refiners to operate the proposed refinery profitably. Furthermore, the Pemex official responsible for the project told us that of the four refiners that expressed interest in the project, only one was seriously working on a bid. Moreover, we understand that a well-placed GOM contact stated he suspects the GOM does not plan to invest any money in the refinery, implying perhaps that it simply has committed to providing a reduced quantity of oil in order to avoid blame for the proposal's demise. Accordingly, despite the rhetoric from leaders, a Mesoamerican refinery is still very unlikely. ¶9. (U) Summit participants agreed to further cooperation on bioenergy and other renewable energy sources, with Colombia offering to share its expertise on the former with PPP members. They agreed to expedite the process of connecting their electric grids, and in particular to take preliminary measures to connect the Colombian and Panamanian grids. U.S. Out of Sight But Not Out of Mind -------------- ¶10. (U) According to press reports, the summit participants called on the U.S. Congress to approve an immigration reform package that protected the rights of migrants. The final summit communique also urged the U.S. Congress to approve pending free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama. Comment: We've Heard This Song Before -------------- ¶11. (C) Mesoamerican integration has of course been a theme for generations and based simply on the communiques issued in Campeche, it's far too soon to conclude that this effort to MEXICO 00001815 003 OF 003 revitalize PPP will bring any greater results than the numerous past efforts. Indeed, the contradictory signals on the proposed Central American refinery suggests that the historic gap between rhetoric and reality remains wide. What the Campeche summit does demonstrate, however, is that the Calderon administration is serious about playing a leadership role in the region and that Central and South America will take on heightened importance in the administration's foreign policy. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA