ZOCALO RALLY SHOWS AMLO'S CONTINUED STRENGTH --

102374 2007-03-28 23:31:00 07MEXICO1581 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL 07MEXICO6569 VZCZCXRO8282 PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #1581/01 0872331 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 282331Z MAR 07 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6181 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001581 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: ZOCALO RALLY SHOWS AMLO'S CONTINUED STRENGTH -- AND SCARES THE LEFT REF: A. MEXICO 6569 ¶B. MEXICO 5318 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay, Reasons : 1.4(B/D). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Until the March 25 closing rally in Mexico City's central square or "Zocalo," many political analysts and observers, including many PRDistas, were writing off Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) 2nd National Democratic Convention (NDC) as an utter failure. Although AMLO managed to attract a few thousand supporters to the NDC's inaugural event on March 21, the NDC's activities/events in the days that followed were designed to give shape and substance to AMLO's opposition movement, were poorly attended and scarcely covered in the press. Its closing ceremony, however, scored a major internal PRD victory for AMLO as he once again nearly filled the Zocalo. The rally's turnout exceeded general expectations and served as a reminder that AMLO remains a dominant -- and potentially divisive -- figure on Mexico's left. End Summary. NDC Opens Quietly... -------------- ¶2. (U) On March 21, failed 2006 PRD presidential candidate (and self-proclaimed "legitimate" president) AMLO kicked off his 2nd National Democratic Convention (NDC) at a park in downtown Mexico City addressing approximately 3,000 people. He vowed to continue his struggle to change the country in a non-violent manner. He said that the NDC aimed to protect the masses (pueblo) and defend Mexico's national patrimony (i.e., oil reserves),urging his supporters to participate in the NDC's meetings and activities which were to conclude with a mass rally in the Zocalo on March 25. ¶3. (C) On March 22nd and 23rd, six NDC working groups met to discuss various political, economic, and social issues. The working group meetings received little media coverage. In conversations with poloff Raul de la Paz and Mary Carmen Soria, two well-connected PRD members, were highly critical of the working groups, complaining that they were poorly organized and attended and that nothing productive came out of them. ...But Concludes on a High Note -------------- ¶4. (U) After a recess on March 24, the NDC concluded on March 25 with throngs of AMLO supporters marching down Mexico City's main avenue and gathering in the city's central square or "Zocalo" to listen to AMLO raise and denounce the spectre of PEMEX privatization, call for shifting Mexico's tax burden from workers to business, rail against rising prices and urge that NAFTA be renegotiated. Overall participation in the concluding rally is unclear and neither local officials nor the press put a figure on crowd size. Poloff, present at the event, agrees with the general estimate that while turnout was significantly smaller than at AMLO's last two post-election rallies (see reftels) it was nevertheless impressive. PRD Reaction to NDC -------------- ¶5. (C) The large turnout in the Zocalo surprised many PRDistas, given the low-profile, poorly attended events of the previous days. Both Soria and de la Paz told poloff that many in the party were shocked with the turnout at the rally, given that little overt effort was put into organizing the event. Moreover, although Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard shared the stage behind AMLO, this is the first major AMLO post-election rally where city government (GDF) coordination and resources were absent, according to sources. (Note: See reftels which note the use of GDF funds to support AMLO's post-election activities.) ¶6. (C) Soria noted that AMLO's rival factions in the PRD, mainly the New Left or "Los Chuchos (named after faction leader Jesus "Chucho" Ortega)," did nothing to support the NDC and were secretly hoping for a lower turnout that would underscore AMLO's political demise. Instead, turnout was greater than expected, and leading newspapers described the MEXICO 00001581 002 OF 002 event as indicative of his continued leadership of the PRD and the left. De la Paz said the March 25 rally worried the Chuchos, who were gambling against the convention's success. Many leftist luminaries shared the dais with AMLO on Sunday, but the only Chucho leader visibly present was PRD Senate coordinator Carlos Navarrete. Ortega himself was no where to be seen, and all five PRD governors -- all affiliated with the party's moderate factions -- were also absent. Lessons Learned? -------------- ¶7. (C) When asked what AMLO's continued ability to turn out the masses means for the party, de la Paz -- who does not align himself with any particular PRD faction -- said it reflected a strong possibility of a permanent PRD fracture and the emergence of a new party. He explained that AMLO and his cronies already had the means and structure in place to create a new party. Since September, the NDC has collected information -- using NDC-delegate registration forms -- on over a million supporters country-wide. He said that if AMLO ever decided to form a break-away party, he would use this contact list to recruit members. He said whether or not AMLO goes this route depends on what happens at the PRD's extraordinary Congress in August. AMLO hopes to consolidate his position within the party through the election of a key supporter, former Mexico City mayor Alejandro Encinas, as the PRD president. If the election does not go AMLO's way, he may decide to start a new party, asserted de la Paz, who estimated he could take as many as half of PRD adherents with him. ¶9. (C) Soria, previously skeptical of the significance of internal party fissures, did not dismiss this possibility when she met with poloff's shortly after the Sunday meeting. She described the current PRD as a "marriage of convenience." However, she said, neither AMLO nor his PRD opponents are ready at this point to divorce and split the assets. Soria agreed that August's party congress would be an important turning point. What's Next for AMLO? -------------- ¶10. (C) The NDC agreed to meet again on November 20, overriding calls by some of AMLO's supporters for rallies on July 2 (the anniversary of the 2006 presidential elections) and September 16 (Independence Day). AMLO unveiled few follow-on activities between now and then beyond a series of unspecified encounters and tours, including a trip to the U.S. According to PRD federal deputy Cuauhtemoc Sandoval, AMLO will travel to Los Angeles, Chicago, and Texas May 1-5 to speak at universities and participate in conferences. He will also meet with migrant workers and various Mexican leaders. Soria and de la Paz confirmed AMLO's planned travel to the U.S. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Sunday's rally showed that AMLO is far from cold to the touch. He pulled a respectable crowd and moved from venting about the July 2 elections to hot button issues as privatization, inflation and pension reform. Still, by putting off the next big NDC event for many months, AMLO disappointed those who had hoped he would unveil a grand strategy to derail Calderon's agenda, (which received a boost this week from the Senate passage of a pension reform package). And rather than galvanize Mexico's left, the event demonstrated he still wields enough power and support to divide it. End comment. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity BASSETT