SWAZILAND POPULATION DECLINE

UNCLAS MBABANE 000443



SIPDIS





PLEASE PASS TO USAID



DEPT FOR AF/S AARON HALL



S/OGAC FOR AMB MARK DYBUL, TOM KENYON, JANICE TIMBERLAKE,

MICHELLE MOLONEY-KITTS



USAID WASHINGTON FOR KEN YAMASHITA, HOPE SUKIN



USAID PRETORIA FOR CARLEENE DEI, GARY JUSTE



CDC PRETORIA FOR OKEY NWANYANWU



CDC ATLANTA FOR DEBBIE BIRX, R.J. SIMONDS, TADESSE WUHIB



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: KHIV, PGOV, SOCI, WZ

SUBJECT: SWAZILAND POPULATION DECLINE



1. This message was drafted by State, CDC and PEPFAR personnel at

Embassy Mbabane.



2. SUMMARY: On Sept 27 the Swaziland Central Statistical Office

(CSO) released the provisional results of the 2007 Population and

Housing Census. Population census is the primary data source used

in national and sub-national planning for health, social and

economic programs. The last national census was conducted in 1997,

noting a population in excess of 900 thousand residents of

Swaziland. Preliminary results indicate a marginal decline in the

Swazi population, thereby failing to meet United Nations and USG's

estimates of 1.1 million Swazi nationals by 2007. Local newspapers,

among others, have speculated that the decline could be related to

the nation's AIDS pandemic. The GKOS has asked the public not to

speculate on potential causes of the declining population until the

final report is complete in mid-2008. END SUMMARY.



3. Two types of population counts were reported in the 2007 census.

The de facto population (which includes persons sleeping away from

household and against which 1997 census counts can be accurately

compared),has declined marginally from the 1997 census estimate of

929,718 to 912,229 in 2007. The 2007 de jure population count

(includes household visitors) of 953, 524 is the provisional

population estimate for Swaziland; it will be used until a more

detailed evaluation of data completeness and quality can be

considered in the final census report due mid-2008. The trend in

the de jure population can not be examined as the 1997 census did

not collect these data.



4. Prior to this census, the most widely used estimate of

Swaziland's population had come from the United Nations Population

Division and US Bureau of Census, which arrived at a total projected

population (by 2007) of 1.1 million persons. This projection

incorporated assumptions about trends in key factors such fertility,

adult and childhood mortality (including AIDS-related deaths),and

net migration.



5. COMMENT:



Given provisional results of the 2007 census suggesting lower

population levels than expected and a negative growth rate, the

following need to be examined:



A. To what extent (if any) is the census under-reporting persons?

Is there a sound

means to adjust the estimate to more reflect current population

levels and allow an

accurate assessment of trends?



B. Did previous projection/estimation procedures (UN Population

Division and US Bureau of Census),assume an overly optimistic

scenario regarding HIV/AIDS-related mortality rises and fertility

declines? Did AIDS impact, including negative growth rates, hit

earlier than expected?



C. Should more detailed analysis of the data reveal that indeed

Swaziland's

population has already started to decline, what are the factors

contributing to the decline? The following must be considered:

a. Rapid declines in fertility due to increased use of modern

contraception (pills, injections, etc),increased condom use, and

decrease in woman's health and fecundity due to HIV disease and poor

nutrition.

b. (Expected) rapid rises in AIDS-related adult mortality,

c. Rises in childhood mortality, as a result of both the direct

effects of AIDS, and indirect effects of AIDS impacts at familial,

household and community levels. The 2006/2007 Swaziland DHS

provides supporting evidence of deterioration in child survival

prospects with an increase in infant mortality from 78 to 85 deaths

per 1000 live births.

d. Inability of health systems to cope with huge increases of

inpatient and outpatient loads related to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis

epidemics, consequently lowering the quality of care, leading to a

tendency of ill persons to stay away from health facilities.



6. It is likely that all of these factors (and perhaps others) are

part of the causal explanation behind the concerning trends. The

consequences of increasing death rates and negative population

growth are manifold. In addition to the swamped health care system,



all social support systems and especially those dependent on stable

family and community structures have been and will continue to be

negatively impacted. The future of Swaziland's next generation of

leaders is comprised by a deficit of adult care providers

(especially mother and fathers) in households. Swazi industry is

handicapped by a shortfall of trained, well-adjusted labor force.





7. Early reactions by local authorities indicate a clear

disappointment in the 2007 census results. Further analysis of the

data is required to confirm negative growth, but if confirmed, the

findings may be used by the Swazi people, donor nations and

international organizations, to urge the GKOS and the King to

mobilize Swazi society and available external resources towards

improved HIV prevention and mitigation programs.



PARKER