LESOTHO: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION DIVIDE GROWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000387 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S, DS, DRL; GABORONE FOR RSO E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/3/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC LT SUBJECT: LESOTHO: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION DIVIDE GROWS REF: MASERU 384 AND PREVIOUS MASERU 00000387 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Charge d'Affaires a.i. W. Patrick Murphy, CDA a.i., EXEC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During a July 2 briefing for the diplomatic corps, three senior GOL ministers described recent SADC-mediated dialogue between the GOL and the political opposition as successful, but proceeded to lambaste the ABC opposition party for a July 1 rally announcing a protest march and sit-in. The Ministers, describing the protest planned for July 5 as reminiscent of tactics that led to the torching of Maseru in 1998, said the GOL would not issue a permit for the march and would take steps to prevent the event if the opposition proceeded as announced. The Ministers also stated the GOL is convinced the opposition is connected to recent violence and coup plotting, but offered no evidence. UN Resident Coordinator and Charge urged the Ministers to consider a senior-level dialogue with the ABC leader to help diffuse tensions (which both sides subsequently agreed upon),but prospects are grim that a face-to-face chat will take place or that such a mechanism can overcome the mutual hatred and suspicion that exists between GOL cabinet members and Thabane. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On July 2, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Phooko (Minister to the Prime Minister's Office) convoked the resident diplomatic corps for a briefing at the MFA. Minister of Communications Metsing and Minister of Tourism, Environment, and Culture Ntsinyi joined Phooko. Diplomatic representatives included the Ambassadors of Ireland, the EC, and Libya; Chinese and U.S. Charge's; the UN Resident Coordinator; and a South African High Commission officer. ¶3. (SBU) Phooko said the briefing was at the request of the Acting Prime Minister (Deputy Prime Minister Lehohla),who wanted the GOL to keep diplomatic missions fully informed of the SADC-mediated dialogue process (reftel). According to the Ministers, the first round of the dialogue (June 25-July 1),led by former Botswana President Masire, had succeeded in bringing the government and opposition together. Phooko said that dialogue participants had agreed on a framework and terms of reference for international experts to review Lesotho's MMP electoral model. Minister Metsing emphasized that the experts would be part of "a continuing learning process" but would not, per the position of the GOL, undo results form the February 2007 election. ¶4. (C) Phooko turned his attention to what he called "the second part of the briefing," namely the portion of the dialogue process designed to improve the political environment in Lesotho. He stated that the GOL viewed as "very disturbing" the opposition ABC party's announcement on July 1 that it would stage a "mass movement march and sit-in" on July 5 to table its "unknown demands" at the office of the Prime Minister (reftel). Minister Ntsinyi said the GOL was surprised by the ABC's dishonesty in concluding the dialogue process and immediately holding a rally that threatened and provoked the government. Minister Metsing stated that the plans for a march demonstrated that the ABC "lacked good faith" in the dialogue process, adding that GOL intelligence indicated the ABC had clear plans to overthrow the GOL. ¶5. (C) Responding to questions from the diplomats, Minister Phooko said that the Lesotho Police (LMPS) would not issue a permit to the opposition for the protest march, and the GOL would take steps to prevent the march if the opposition proceeded as announced ("We hope they won't march," said Phooko). He observed that while the dialogue process had adjourned on a "hopeful note," the opposition's intentions to conduct a "sit-in" at government offices was reminiscent of similar opposition tactics in 1998 that led to rioting, the "torching" of downtown Maseru, and a subsequent intervention by SADC troops. "This kind of protest had consequences in 1998," said Phooko, "and we will therefore prevent the march." ¶6. (C) Charge asked Phooko about the apparent disconnect between the dialogue success and the opposition's planned march, pressing Minister Metsing to clarify his claims that the ABC had plans to overthrow the government. Phooko responded that ABC leader Tom Thabane had departed the dialogue early on July 1 to attend his rally, leaving ABC deputies to iron out the final statement, but offered no further insight. Metsing stated, "We are convinced the opposition is connected to recent violence and coup plotting," adding without elaboration that "we know what kind of animal (Thabane) we are dealing with." ¶7. (C) The Irish and EC Ambassadors, Charge, and UNRC each urged the GOL Ministers not to abandon dialogue or the rule of law--observing that a physical standoff with the opposition could lead to violence. The diplomats also asked the Ministers to address opposition and general public accusations of extrajudicial detention and torture of opposition supporters and former military personnel. Minister Metsing said that cabinet members had heard reports of the abuse, and had called in unidentified security officials earlier that day for MASERU 00000387 002.2 OF 002 explanations. Minister Phooko, addressing the torture reports, said cryptically that the GOL is concerned "the Lesotho Police force has its own agenda," but added "We are in a crisis situation, and we are responding to a physical uprising against a legitimate government." Comment: Rising Tempers and Growing Intransigence ¶8. (C) The three GOL Ministers were relaxed in recounting the SADC-mediated dialogue, but grew visibly agitated when discussing the ABC opposition party and its leader, former GOL cabinet member Tom Thabane (Note: Ntsinyi participated in the dialogue process, and both Ntsinyi and Metsing were the targets of recent attacks on their residences by unidentified perpetrators. End Note). The accusations that the ABC leaders are behind recent attacks on GOL ministers and alleged coup plotting are dubious; the Ministers offered no particular evidence other than alleged private comments by Thabane prior to the February election that the ABC "intends to govern whether elected or not." ¶9. (C) UNRC and Charge urged the Ministers in separate pull-asides after the briefing to consider a "magnanimous" GOL approach to the ABC at a senior level to discuss the motives for the planned march and possible remedies. Metsing, a GOL hardliner, was dismissive, but Phooko and Ntsinyi acknowledged the need for high-level dialogue between the two sides and agreed to pursue with Prime Minister Mosisili. On June 3, Phooko communicated to the UNRC that Deputy Prime Minister Lehohla was willing to meet with Tom Thabane, while Thabane told diplomats separately on July 3 that he, too, was willing to meet with senior GOL officials (septel). Given the profound mutual hatred and suspicion that exists between GOL cabinet members and Thabane, however, prospects are grim that a face-to-face chat will actually take place or even that such a mechanism can cool rising tempers and overcome growing intransigence on both sides. End Comment. MURPHY