LESOTHO: STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR 2007 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000020 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM LT SUBJECT: LESOTHO: STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR 2007 NATIONAL ELECTIONS REF: A) 06 MASERU 605 B) 06 MASERU 594 C) 06 MASERU 592 D) 06 MASERU 563 E) 06 MASERU 560 MASERU 00000020 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary: As polling day approaches, anticipation is high across Lesotho and political parties are busy holding rallies to drum up support for the February 17, 2007 national election, less than six weeks away. Fierce competition and internal disputes have delayed some political parties in identifying candidates ahead of a January 19 registration deadline set by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). The IEC, charged with running the elections, has come under heavy criticism from many political parties and voters for shortcomings in voter registration. A Southern African Development Community (SADC) Ministerial delegation representing the Troika on Organ on Politics, Defense and Security paid a visit to Maseru to assess the country's preparedness for the elections. End summary. POLITICAL RALLIES KICKED-OFF ¶2. Many political party leaders have been traveling across Lesotho in an effort to woo new supporters and at the same to retain their support base. According to local media sources, on December 29 the leader of the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD),Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili, kicked-off his campaign in Mafeteng District with a defiant message for those who think his time is up and his party will lose the February poll. The Mafeteng rally served as a launch pad for the LCD manifesto and presentation of 80 candidates who will represent the party in the constituencies. The event, a counter-rally to the newly formed opposition All Basotho Convention (ABC),was also intended to beef up LCD candidate Lesao Lehohla (current Deputy Prime Minster). A well attended ABC rally in Lehohla's constituency on December 17 put his support base to a test. ¶3. The Basotho National Party (BNP),Lesotho's largest opposition party over the past five years, launched its own campaign a month earlier, after the Prime Minister's office announced the date for the elections on November 29. Despite the ascendancy of the new ABC party, some political observers still view the BNP, led by retired Major General Justin Lekhanya, as a strong contender that could unseat the incumbent government. The recent formation of the Basotho Democratic National Party (BDNP),which splintered from the BNP, has not had any significant adverse impact on the BNP's power base. ¶4. Amidst all these political developments, the ABC, led by former Minister Motsoahae Thabane, has maintained significant momentum since its inaugural rally on October 29, 2006 (ref E). Thabane has led large rallies in all of Lesotho's districts, with a final district rally planned for January 13-14 in Qacha's Nek, the Prime Minister's home constituency. The LCD's sustained vitriol against Thabane indicates that members of the ruling party, including the Prime Minister, continue to see him as a potential electoral threat to their leadership position. Both the BNP and the ABC have criticized the LCD government of creating an uneven playing field ahead of the polls by using state assets for their campaigns, including radio, television, and vehicles. SELECTION OF CANDIDATES ¶5. The IEC has set January 19 as a deadline for political parties to submit lists of their candidates for both the constituency (80 directly elected) seats and the proportional representation (40) seats in the National Assembly elections. So far, only the LCD, through primary elections, has selected all 80 candidates for constituency seats; the ABC has identified 76, the BNP 70, and the rest of the parties are still in the process of electing and fielding candidates. Several small parties do not have the capacity to field all candidates. THE ROLE OF THE IEC / SADC TROIKA ¶6. As the country approaches polling day, the political climate is full of energy. The credibility of the IEC and its preparedness for the elections, however, has come under heavy criticism from various stakeholders including voters, opposition political parties, and civil society organizations. The principal concerns have focused on imperfections of the voters roll, including the absence of registered individuals, which was published for public scrutiny on December 25 to January 1. During this period, IEC officials were accused of giving conflicting and feeble reasons for missing names. The IEC subsequently announced that provisional lists will be published on January 12. ABC leader Thomas Thabane expressed concern about serious omissions and discrepancies in the identity cards of potential voters during a press conference he convened on January 2. He also accused the IEC of manipulating the election schedule by adding new events without appropriate amendments to the official election time table ¶7. Foreign Ministers from Namibia, Angola, and Tanzania MASERU 00000020 002.2 OF 002 representing the SADC Troika of the Organ on Politics, Defense and Security visited Maseru January 4-6 to assess the state of preparedness for the February poll. During their visit, they met with members of the resident Diplomatic Corps, the Deputy Prime Minister, Christian Council of Lesotho (CCL),political party leaders, the IEC, and the Lesotho Council on NGOs. COMMENT ¶8. Although 19 political parties are in the running for parliamentary seats, political observers see the coming National Assembly elections as a race among the three biggest parties: the governing LCD and the opposition BNP and ABC. The frequent attacks on the ABC by the LCD leadership have generated a lot of interest and local observers have questioned why the LCD does not campaign on their own achievements, instead of focusing on Thabane and thus increasing his popularity. As there are no opinion polls in Lesotho to predict the outcome of the elections, the common barometer for measuring public opinion has been the size of political rallies, radio call-in programs, and local street talk. ¶9. Political debates were last conducted in 1993 and the NDI election support team has suggested to the IEC re-introducing debates for the February 17 elections. This is expected to generate a lot of interest, particularly among the youth in urban areas. At this stage it is difficult to gauge support based on the size of rallies, as country-wide rallies will only be held on February 11. That will mark the last leg of campaigning. From the current vantage point, no single political party is expected to win the elections with a landslide. End Comment. MURPHY PERRY