SADC: POSSIBLE EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000177 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV PINR KDEM ECON ZI LT SUBJECT: SADC: POSSIBLE EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT ON ZIMBABWE REF: MASERU 175; MASERU 168; MASERU 157; STATE 34009; STATE 34008 MASERU 00000177 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: W. Patrick Murphy, DCM, EXEC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Tanzanian Foreign Minister Membe, in Lesotho for the SADC Council of Ministers meeting, told Maseru-based diplomats on March 22 "in confidence" that the SADC Double Troika ministers had recommended to their respective capitals that Tanzania host an Extraordinary Summit for SADC Heads of State within the next week to address the Zimbabwe situation. Although the Double Troika issued a tepid and vague press release on Zimbabwe, Membe stated that behind closed doors the Troika had concluded that the facts "not only justify, but they require" that SADC "confront the difficulties and challenges posed by our neighbor" (Zimbabwe). ¶2. (C) Membe, who told the DCM he was "highly certain" the Summit would take place on March 28 or 29, the goal of the Summit would be to create peace in the region, but also to "give confidence to the world that SADC is a credible organization." It appears that demarches on the Zimbabwe crisis may be having an impact within SADC, revealing in Lesotho and elsewhere a growing understanding that SADC must act, lest the Zimbabwe crisis damage the organization's credibility and/or create greater economic and political implications for the region. Although FM Membe did not reveal a plan of action for the Extraordinary Summit, or preview possible outcomes, he insisted that the Heads of State "will not be silent" on Zimbabwe. End Summary. ¶3. (C) On March 22, Tanzanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Bernard Kamillius Membe held a late evening discussion with Lesotho-based diplomats on a possible SADC mediation role to help resolve Lesotho's ongoing election-related political crisis (septel). Diplomats at the discussion included the Chinese and Irish Ambassadors, the South African Charge, DCM, and the UN resident coordinator. At the conclusion of the session, DCM asked Membe if the SADC Council of Ministers, which had just concluded its meeting in Maseru, had addressed the Zimbabwe situation in any meaningful manner. Membe, describing the Zimbabwe issue as "extremely complicated" for SADC, said that the Council had not dealt directly with the issue, but the SADC Troika (Lesotho, Tanzania, and Namibia) had spent considerable time discussing the crisis.. ¶4. (C) Membe said "in confidence" that, unlike Lesotho, which had been very forthcoming with SADC about its internal political challenges, Zimbabwe was proving to be extremely vexing for the regional organization. As a result, Membe added, the SADC Double Troika had issued a statement at the conclusion of the Council meeting, but, he acknowledged, the statement was neither specific nor direct (see para 7 below for full text of the Double Troika press release). ¶5. (C) FM Membe said that the Troika foreign ministers had spent the week in Lesotho "satisfying ourselves and our colleagues that the Zimbabwe issue may require broader consideration." He said the Troika had concluded that the facts "not only justify, but they require" that SADC "confront the difficulties and challenges posed by our neighbor." As a result of their deliberations, Membe said, the Troika ministers had recommended to their respective capitals that Tanzania, as Chair of the Organ on Politics, Defense and Security, host an "Extraordinary Summit" of SADC Heads of State "as soon as practically possible" to discuss the Zimbabwe situation. ¶6. (C) Membe, who said that a Summit of SADC Heads of State within the next week was a "90 percent" certainty, added that such an unusual session was a necessity, given the regional political and economic implications of the Zimbabwe situation. He stated that the goal of the Summit would be to create peace in the region, but also to "give confidence to the world that SADC is a credible organization." In a sidebar discussion with DCM following the discussion with the diplomats, Membe said he was "highly certain" that the Summit would take place March 28 or 29 (following the next meeting of the Organ on Politics, Defense and Security). Ambassador Perry is scheduled to meet with Lesotho Foreign Minister Tsekoa on March 23, our next opportunity to discuss the Zimbabwe situation with the GOL, and to seek Lesotho's version of the Council of Ministers meeting and Troika deliberations. ¶7. (C) Begin Text of SADC Double Troika Press Release (Issued on SADC letterhead): Taking Advantage of the SADC Council of Ministers Meeting in Maseru on 22 March the SADC Double Troika met to consider the economic, political and security situation in Southern Africa. They: --Recognized the initiative which the Chairperson and the Organ MASERU 00000177 002.2 OF 002 on Politics, Defense and Security, H.E. Jakaya Kikwete, President of the United Republic of Tanzania took to visit the Republic of Zimbabwe for briefing and consultation on recent developments there. --Reviewed the reports by local and international media and statements by various capitals regarding the situation in the SADC region. In view of these, the SADC Double Troika underscored the importance of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security intensifying its consultations on the political and economic challenges confronting the region. End Text. ¶8. (C) Comment: It appears that the demarches on the Zimbabwe situation in capitals, and specifically in SADC capitals and with SADC Chair, Lesotho, are having an impact. Our own daily approaches to senior GOL officials over the past week (including Ambassador Perry's in-depth discussions with Prime Minister Mosisili and a half dozen Ministers) have revealed a growing understanding that SADC must act, lest the Zimbabwe crisis damage the organization's credibility and/or create greater economic and political implications for the region. Tanzanian FM Membe was positively exuberant about the potential role for SADC in mediating the Lesotho crisis ("It is inspiring," he said, "that the GOL and the political parties in Lesotho have such confidence that SADC can potentially play a role to prevent the crisis from escalating into violence.") His exuberance was equally abundant on the forthcoming opportunity for SADC Heads of State to tackle Zimbabwe. Although he did not reveal a plan of action, or preview possible outcomes of the Summit, he insisted that the Heads of State "will not be silent" on Zimbabwe. End Comment. PERRY