MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE: AN OVERVIEW OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MARSEILLE 000066 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB PARIS FOR ECON, POL, PD FOR PAO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI EU FR PINR ECON ELAB SUBJECT: MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE: AN OVERVIEW OF THE THREE LARGEST CITIES MARSEILLE 00000066 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary: The 2008 municipal elections in the three largest cities in the south of France (Marseille, Nice and Montpellier) will probably not see any city halls changing hands. Marseille and Nice will remain UMP, and Montpellier PS. Marseille will see the closest race, as the powerful socialist Jean Noel Guerini challenges UMP baron Jean Claude Gaudin. The UMP may upend its own incumbent, Jerome Peyrat (76),in Nice and run youthful Sarkozy confidante Christian Estrosi (52) in place of the aging Peyrat. Montpellier will remain the fief of ex-mayor Georges Freche (69). Despite Freche's excommunication from the Socialist Party for repeated racist remarks, his handpicked successor Helene Mandroux (66) will easily win re-election. The following is a snapshot of each race as they get underway. End Summary. ¶2. Marseille: The battle of the titans will be held! Although the UMP will likely win, this is the race to watch. Jean Noel Guerini (56),President of the Bouches des Rhones Department and the undisputed leader of the powerful Bouches des Rhone PS federation is for the first time running for mayor against Jean Claude Gaudin (68),the UMP baron and life-long presence in Marseille politics. Guerini will have the battle-hardened Patrick Mennucci as campaign manager, following his rise to national prominence as one of the managers of Segolene Royal's presidential run. Gaudin is the front-runner in this election, but Marseille has powerful PS currents that Guerini will tap into. Although the PS lost two Marseille seats in the June 2007 legislative elections, both losses were very close (For example, Patrick Mennucci lost to the incumbent Jean Roatta by 248 votes). As Department president, Guerini also presides over the largest budget in the area, allowing him to make politically astute earmarks in the run up to the election. Gaudin has several accomplishments he can point to: the new tramway, the growing Euromed business zone, several new schools, a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Gaudin is also very close to President Sarkozy, and delivered Marseille for him in May. Sarkozy can be counted on to return the favor. But Marseille remains a poor city with long-term employment and affordable housing issues that Guerini can exploit. Traffic and trash collection remain flashpoints as well. Guerini's candidacy was in doubt for a while due to a health scare (major heart surgery) at the beginning of 2007, but in recent encounters has seemed slimmed down and full of energy. ¶3. Montpellier: No surprises in Montpellier. The Socialist Party machine built by Georges Freche continues to run the city and will easily carry the next elections. Despite his problems with the PS at the national level, the larger than life Freche continues to be the arbiter of the political landscape of the Languedoc Roussillon region. His hand-picked successor Helene Mandroux (66) will stand for re-election and has no strong opponents. The long-time "leader of the right" in the region, Jacques Blanc, is considered by many to be past his sell-by date, but shows no signs of ceding his position to anyone else. This will not help Jacques Domergue, the likely UMP candidate for mayor of Montpellier. The issues before Montpellier remain those associated with rapid growth: transport, lodging, education, green growth, etc.... Montpellier's growth shows no signs of slowing. It remains one of the fastest growing cities in France and native-born citizens are in the minority. ¶4. Nice: The election threatens not to be nice in Nice but the UMP will prevail in this traditional stronghold of the right. The UMP incumbent Jacques Peyrat (76) has announced his re-election bid, but it is virtually certain that youthful Sarkozy confidante Christian Estrosi (52),Secretary of State for Overseas Territories and President of the Alpes-Maritime Department will seek to dethrone Peyrat as the UMP candidate. Peyrat is unpopular in Nice, with several in his entourage caught up in financial scandals. In addition, the Nice tramway faces delays, and several other transport projects have made the city a traffic nightmare for the past few years. Estrosi has much stronger UMP ties than Peyrat, who is ex-FN. However, Peyrat, an ex-paratrooper, will not go without a fight. His opening line in announcing his re-election bid was, "Some say they want my hide. They will have to come get it!" If denied the UMP nomination, he has said he will run as an independent. The PS is also having difficulty selecting a candidate for the elections. In what is being called the "War of the Patricks" Patrick Allemand, VP of the PACA region and Patrick Mottard, leader of the opposition in the Nice City council, are fighting MARSEILLE 00000066 002.2 OF 002 over who will lead the left in the municipal elections. On the issues, Nice is a city struggling with ethnic tensions. Tourism numbers are strong, but Nice is waking up to the fact that the booming Mediterranean cruise ship sector is passing it by, due to an inability to welcome the large ships in the harbor. ¶5. Comment: With the exception of Peyrat in Nice, who faces an internal UMP challenge, none of the incumbents have declared they will run, preferring to use the power of the incumbency while seeming to stand above the fray. But the race is clearly on. BREEDEN