PRESIDENT GUEBUZA ON ZIMBABWE AND PKO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000998 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM MZ ZI SUBJECT: PRESIDENT GUEBUZA ON ZIMBABWE AND PKO'S REF: A. MAPUTO 899 ¶B. MAPUTO 949 ¶C. MAPUTO 955 ¶D. MAPUTO 956 ¶E. LUSAKA 945 MAPUTO 00000998 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES TODD C. CHAPMAN, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Guebuza told the Charge on August 20 that he pressed both Mbeki and Mugabe for a speedier solution to Zimbabwe's political crisis at the Lusaka Summit that reflects the will of the Zimbabwean people. He said that Mozambique was interested in participating in peacekeeping operations (PKO's),but was not yet logistically prepared to do so. Guebuza recognized the country's economic growth and USG support, including high-level interest such as the pending visit by HHS Secretary Leavitt. Guebuza seemed to grasp the international political arguments that support Mozambique's participation in PKO's, but worried about the domestic political fallout resulting from any diversion of GRM resources away from underfunded social programs or combating the rising crime problem at home. End Summary. -------------- Economic Development; Concern about Crime -------------- ¶2. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolEconChief, met August 20 with President Guebuza at his request. Guebuza was accompanied by Political Advisor Renato Matusse and a notetaker. Lauding the remarkable economic development that Mozambique has enjoyed over the past 15 years, the Charge opened by congratulating the president for the GRM's responsible stewardship of the economy. He applauded the recent article that President Guebuza had written for AllAfrica.com in which he emphasized that the private sector was now Mozambique's primary engine for economic growth and partner in development. ¶3. (C) Guebuza in turn congratulated and recognized the USG for the key role it has played in Mozambique's development, noting that the USG had been a strong supporter for many years--helping fund and observe elections, for example, and providing relief during natural disasters that had afflicted the country in the 1990s and again more recently. In spite of the growth in the economy, he expressed worry about the increasing crime in Mozambique, and observed that it was a regional problem. Criminal elements seemed to be increasingly present across international borders. �00A;¶4. (C) Guebuza said he was concerned to find that many criminals in Mozambique seemed connected to the police, until he realized that internal infractions committed by police officers usually resulted in immediate dismissal. In other words, he continued, there were large numbers of unemployed former police officers who were ripe for recruitment into criminal gangs. A Mozambican politician who participated in a USG International Visitor program reported to the President that he observed how the Chicago police force addressed internal discipline problems with programs to correct behavior--with dismissal only as a last resort. Guebuza stated that he would seek to implement this internal corrective process within the Mozambican police force so as to reform behavior rather than augment the criminal ranks. -------------- Lusaka Summit, Perspectives on Zimbabwe -------------- ¶5. (C) The Charge asked how Guebuza viewed the outcomes of last week's SADC summit in Lusaka. The President called it a success, with renewed commitments on economic integration and the establishment of a regional peacekeeping force. He added that conditions in Lesotho and Congo seemed to be steadily improving, and that leaders had urged South Africa's Thabo Mbeki and Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe to make more rapid progress towards resolving Zimbabwe's political impasse. ¶6. (C) The Charge said that the United States viewed Zimbabwe's problems with increasing concern, wanted a result that eased the country's suffering, and supported an African solution to this regional problem. Guebuza replied that Mozambique would support all domestic Zimbabwean political actors and a forum that would allow them all to communicate better, and that the GRM wanted a solution that "reflected the will of the Zimbabwean people." Guebueza said that when people asked him if Mugabe should be forced out, he had his MAPUTO 00000998 002.2 OF 002 own personal opinion but that opinion didn,t matter: it is what Zimbabweans desire that counts. He added that the GRM needed to proceed with care, as Zimbabwe could hurt Malawi, South Africa, and Mozambique. -------------- -------------- PKOs: Interested, Need Funds; HHS Secretary Visit -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Charge observed that in the past 60 days, Guebuza had met with First Lady Laura Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, AF Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer and MCC CEO John Danilovich. The following day's visit by HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt would be the first cabinet-level SIPDIS visit to Mozambique in over five years. The time appeared ripe, continued the Charge, to work towards broadening the bilateral agenda to include issues of continental and multilateral importance like peacekeeping operations (PKO's) in Africa. ¶8. (C) Guebueza responded that he had raised this issue with his national security council, a mixed commission of civilian and military advisors, which had observed it would be difficult to justify taking money away from social spending to support PKO's. He said that when he met with Secretary Rice, he had suggested that the political commitment to PKO's was actually a secondary issue. The primary concern was ensuring that the logistical support was in place so that a sustainable mission could be undertaken. Further, his government would need more information on what the missions would be in Somalia or Sudan before being able to commit troops. He ultimately characterized Mozambique's stance as "interested in PKO's, but not yet ready to send the troops." -------------- Request for Elections Financing -------------- ¶9. (C) At the conclusion of the meeting, political counselor to the president Renato Matusse asked the Charge about possible USG funding for provincial elections in January, as raised by President Guebueza with Secretary Rice in Washington. The Charge indicated that the USG had a small amount of technical assistance available, but that direct funding of the elections was not envisaged. -------------- -------------- Comment: Guebuza Engaged, Focused on PKO Logistics -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) The President, engaging and friendly during the 45-minute meeting, clearly appreciates our bilateral relationship and the attention Mozambique is receiving from the USG * especially the recently-signed Millennium Challenge Compact. He reiterated Mozambican interest in regional peacekeeping, but was extremely focused on logistical requirements and the sustainability for any Mozambican involvement in PKO operations. Guebuza seemed to grasp the international political arguments that support Mozambique's participation in PKO's, but worried about the domestic political fallout resulting from any diversion of GRM resources away from underfunded social programs or combating the rising crime problem at home. Additional funding or political arguments will be needed to get Mozambican peacekeepers back into the field. Chapman