MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCY ON ZUMA AND ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MAPUTO 001486 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ SF ZI SUBJECT: MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCY ON ZUMA AND ZIMBABWE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b)&(d ) ¶1. (C) The Charge hosted Minister of the Presidency Antonio Sumbana at his residence December 19 for a one-on-one lunch to discuss Zimbabwe and the election of Jacob Zuma as ANC President (other topics covered septel). Sumbana noted that the GRM and the Frelimo party worked hard to maintain relationships with many people within the ANC so as not to over-personalize the relationship with South Africa. When asked about the numerous legal cases pending against Zuma, the Minister replied that he did not know how many of these cases were real and how many were fueled by Zuma's political rivals. With this victory, his accusers may recede, he commented. Sumbana confirmed that Zuma had spent several years in Maputo and indeed was well-known to the senior Frelimo leadership. He highlighted that the Zulus also maintained strong ties with many ethnic groups in southern Mozambique. ¶2. (C) Echoing a theme from earlier discussions, the Minister said that Mozambique is interested in identifying ways to bring more equity to the Mozambique-South Africa relationship. The GRM does not want Mozambique to be considered as part of a Southern African region ruled by Pretoria. Rather, the GRM is looking for ways to demonstrate, in a subtle way, its independence from South Africa. He cited the example of the recent turnover of the Cahora Bassa Dam to Mozambique from Portugal, a transaction which involved a USD700 million loan organized by French and Portuguese banks. South African banks complained and wrote an unfriendly letter to President Armando Guebuza, expressing disappointment that this financing deal was not led by African banks. According to Sumbana, the GRM did not want banks from South Africa, the country receiving most of Cahora Bassa's energy, to finance the deal as they could be subject to domestic political pressure that could negatively impact the Cahora Bassa Dam project. Better to involve other regions in this important regional project, he concluded. ¶3. (C) Sumbana lamented the continuing chaos in Zimbabwe, acknowledging that the political instability next door hurt Mozambique in many ways. In response to the Charge's inquiry, Sumbana (a former Ambassador to Zimbabwe) confirmed that GRM officials remained in contact with ZANU-PF dissidents who hoped for a change in leadership. "But they are all scared," he said, "they want change but dare not act." Towns along the border were increasingly chaotic (especially since the GRM and Zimbabwe lifted the visa requirements for their citizens) as the flow of Zimbabwean immigrants continued to increase. ¶4. (C) Sumbana asked if we knew who continued to finance the Zimbabwean economy. He speculated that it was Libya. The Charge responded that China appeared to provide substantial economic support to the Mugabe government. When asked if he would be interested in having someone from the USG brief him (and others in the GRM) on what we understand to be happening in Zimbabwe, Sumbana showed great interest in the idea. He said they could never make such an official request, however, because if discovered it would make many in the region upset with the GRM--and when Mugabe feels isolated, he gets more violent. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: On Zuma, Sumbana studiously avoided stating that the GRM was pleased with the election of Zuma, but it was clear that the relationships which many Mozambicans already have with the new ANC President were considered a potential asset. When discussing the GRM-RSA relationship with Sumbana, there is clearly a sense of unease with the perception of a growing domination of the region by South Africa. On Zimbabwe,the GRM continues to nervously watch and wait. Post welcomes Washington input on the possibility or desirability of providing a Washington or Harare-based briefer to meet informally with a small group of GRM officials to provide an in-depth briefing. END COMMENT. Chapman