JOINT COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE ARMED CLASHES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANILA 002358 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS USPACOM ALSO FOR J5 SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP (TOOLAN/REDMON) JOINT STAFF/J5 (WILKES/ROBINSON/CLEMMONS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PTER MOPS PINS RP SUBJECT: JOINT COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE ARMED CLASHES IN BASILAN REF: MANILA 2344 Classified By: Pol/C Scott Bellard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. A new joint committee will investigate the situation on Basilan in the wake of the tragic July 10 encounter between some armed elements and the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and will work to restore peace on the ground. The determination of both the Philippine government and the MILF to continue collaboration there is a welcome sign that this incident was an aberration rather than a new pattern of old behavior. End Summary. ¶2. (C) According to Philippine Government Peace Negotiations Panel Executive Director Ryan Sullivan, the Philippine Government-Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Joint Coordinating Committee for the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH) will conduct a "thorough investigation" of the July 10 armed encounter in Tipo-Tipo, Basilan that left 14 Philippine Marines dead, 10 of whom were beheaded (reftel). He described Tipo-Tipo, Basilan as an "MILF stronghold" within an "extremely complex" social, political, and security environment, in which kinship often "blurred the lines" among the MILF, Abu Sayyaf Group, and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). ¶3. (C) Sullivan confirmed that the two peace panels had agreed to request Malaysia's approval for participation of International Monitoring Team (IMT) members in a fact-finding mission. At present, a seven-man IMT contingent -- two Libyans and five Malaysians -- in Zamboanga City has no mandate to operate on-the-ground in Basilan under the existing Terms of Reference. Sullivan underscored the need for an expanded IMT area of responsibility now to include Basilan as well as southern Palawan. ¶4. (C) MILF Peace Panel Chairman Mohaqer Iqbal publicly denied any ASG role in the armed clashes with the Philippine Marines on July 10. While admitting Basilan was a "unique place," MILF Peace Panel member Michael Mastura separately claimed that too few facts were yet available to assess accurately what effect the fighting and beheadings on July 10 would have on the peace talks and peace process, as well as exactly who was responsible. Mastura, a former Congressman, opined that members of the Philippine Congress might usefully participate in a committee investigating the incident. ¶5. (SBU) On the ground in Basilan, armed skirmishes in Tipo-Tipo have ended, but tensions remain high. There are calls within the Armed Forces of the Philippines for retaliation, while others are urging a moderated response, at least until more facts are clear. ¶6. (C) Comment: As in other parts of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, personal ties and loyalties often count for more than institutional "membership." It remains unlikely that any senior MILF leaders would have authorized this encounter, especially given its quick time-fuse and in light of other more promising developments in the preparations for a new round of informal peace talks, as well as in the overall peace process on the ground, notably on Basilan over the past five years. More probable is that some elements associated with the MILF, along with other lawless elements on Basilan -- probably including some from the ASG -- over-reacted with alarm and undue force to the unexpected entrance of Philippine Marines into their "zone," leading to this tragic encounter. The determination of both the Philippine government and the MILF to work together to investigate and to restore calm in the area, as well as in other parts of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, is a welcome sign that this incident was an aberration rather than a new pattern of old behavior. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ KENNEY