SCENESETTER FOR ADMIRAL KEATING'S VISIT TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANILA 002052 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS USPACOM ALSO FOR FPA SECEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR ALLEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017 TAGS: MARR MOPS PINS PREL PTER RP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ADMIRAL KEATING'S VISIT TO THE PHILIPPINES Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Welcome to the Philippines! I am looking forward to seeing you here. US Pacific Command is an essential partner in our efforts to defeat terrorism and help the Philippine military reform itself. The USS Peleliu is now in the Philippines as part of our effort to conduct civil military operations along with Philippine and key foreign partners. During your visit you will have a chance to meet key Philippine civilian and military leaders and to see on the ground in Jolo the impact of USAID's and Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines' civil-military operations. POLITICAL-MILITARY RELATIONS -------------- --- ¶2. (C) President Arroyo is determined to press ahead with her priorities until the end of her term in 2010, which include sustaining momentum in peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF),seeking additional counterterrorism successes against High Value Targets, maintaining solid economic growth and investment, and continuing the historic Philippine Defense Reform (PDR) initiative. Mid-term elections in May 2007 gave her coalition parties a large majority in the House of Representatives and in provincial governments, but led to a solid Opposition victory in the Senate, thereby complicating her ability to push her legislative agenda. ¶3. (C) Despite an abortive coup attempt and week-long "State of National Emergency" in February 2006 and failed impeachment efforts in Congress in 2005 and 2006, President Arroyo currently appears in a stable and strong political position. She has worked especially hard to ensure good relations with the military, and is keen to obtain additional military equipment to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). New Secretary of National Defense Hermogenes Ebdane is a close confidant, and brings years of experience with the Philippine National Police. He is a graduate of the Philippine Military Academy, as is AFP Chief of Staff General Hermogenes "Jun" Esperon. Both are strong supporters of PDR and reliable partners in our counterterrorism efforts. Of some concern within the military, however, was the election to the Senate in 2007 of a junior AFP officer still detained and on trial for leadership in the 2003 "Oakwood Mutiny". SECURITY AND INSURGENCIES -------------- ¶4. (C) President Arroyo is a committed counterterrorism partner, and has repeatedly demonstrated her willingness to work closely with us on combating Islamist extremism. Military and law enforcement forces scored several major victories in the counterterrorism fight over the past year, including the deaths in military operations of Abu Solaiman, Khadaffy Janjalani, and Jundam Jamalul ("Black Killer") of the notorious terrorist Abu Sayyaf Group. Recent payouts of $10 million by our Rewards for Justice program for these deaths may lead to additional captures or killings in military operations by the AFP of wanted JI and ASG terrorists, notably Bali bombers Dulmatin and Patek. ¶5. (C) Prospects for peace with the MILF remain favorable if not yet imminent. We are directly engaged with all players, including the MILF Central Committee, to ensure the severing of any remaining ties by some MILF commanders with ASG and JI terrorists. The Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) has greatly contributed stability to the four-year ceasefire between the Philippine government and the MILF. Peace talks under Malaysian auspices offer signs that the two parties may work out a deal that address the key issues of Muslim territory and self-determination ¶6. (C) The Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army (CPP/NPA) insurgency remains a virulent nationwide threat. While its ideology and tactics hold little appeal for the overwhelming majority of Filipinos, the movement is fueled by poverty, insufficient government services, and discontent with the corruption that permeates the political system. The US and EU designations of the CPP/NPA as a terrorist organization in August 2002 set back its overseas fundraising efforts. The CPP/NPA broke off talks with the GRP in 2004 over the issue of the terrorist designation, and has turned more actively to local extortion to raise funds. THE ARMED FORCES OF THE PHILIPPINES -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The AFP remains heavily engaged in combating internal security threats but maintains limited external defense capabilities. The Philippine government plans spending of about US$100 million per year between 2006 and 2012 to fund PDR, the Capability Upgrade Program and the Battalion retraining program. ¶8. (U) The AFP is already beginning to see the positive effects of the Maintenance Mobility Program. Three C-130's are now operational and a fourth is awaiting depot maintenance. Several efforts are coming together that will eventually bring a total of 46 UH-1H helicopters to the Philippines. The AFP purchased 20 reconditioned Hueys from Singapore, all of which have now been delivered. We turned over the first 10 of 20 UH-1Hs promised by President Bush during President Arroyo's May 2003 State Visit to Washington in June 2007. An additional six Excess Defense Article UH-1Hs refurbished with national funds were also delivered. PHILIPPINE DEFENSE REFORM -------------- - ¶9. (U) There are now 13 US Subject Matter Experts on the ground to implement PDR, which will transform the AFP into a more transparent, accountable, and modern fighting force and counterterrorism partner. In addition to long term institutional changes, the multi-year Capability Upgrade Program will upgrade and modernize 72 Philippine Army and 12 Philippine Marine Corps battalions over the next six years. The Battalion Retraining component will focus on better training, personnel and logistics programs, while introducing new personnel policies, and new equipment. MARINE CASE -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The case of Lance Corporal Daniel Smith, convicted in December 2006 for the November 2005 rape of a Filipina, has been a so far successful test case of our bilateral Visiting Forces Agreement. Smith remains under U.S. custody (supervision by JUSMAG and III Marine Expeditionary Force representatives on the grounds of the US Embassy) until the end of all judicial proceedings. His case now stands before the Court of Appeals.. UNLAWFUL/EXTRAJUDICIAL KILLINGS -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Allegations continue to surface of involvement by military and police elements in the deaths of leftist activists and journalists. President Arroyo and senior military and police officials have forcefully made clear that any such killings violate State policy and that all culprits must face justice, regardless of who they are. A new special police task force is investigating all such killings, while special courts will handle the expeditious processing of these cases. Both the AFP and the police have set up new human rights offices to assist in the investigations, working with the Philippine Commission on Human Rights. ¶12. (U) The Embassy carefully vets all proposed military and law enforcement personnel about to receive U.S.-funded training both internally and with relevant Philippine authorities to comply by the terms of the Leahy Amendments. KENNEY