MILF PEACE TALKS MAY RESUME BEFORE MAY 14 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001243 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PINS KISL RP MY SUBJECT: MILF PEACE TALKS MAY RESUME BEFORE MAY 14 ELECTIONS REF: A. MANILA 962 ¶B. MANILA 952 ¶C. MANILA 828 ¶D. MANILA 594 ¶E. MANILA 281 Classified By: Pol/C Scott Bellard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Exploratory talks between the Government of the Philippines and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will likely resume in Kuala Lumpur on May 1. At the top of the agenda will be the MILF's latest proposal to include territory from only three provinces -- Sultan Kudarat, North Cotabato, and Lanao Del Norte -- outside of the "core" Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao within a new "Bangsamoro Juridical Entity." The enabling legislation and plebiscite to create a new political entity will eventually hinge upon majority support in Congress after the May 14 elections. MILF leaders are discussing the establishment of their own independent political party. The MILF remains concerned about potential "spoilers" -- powerful business families, traditional politicians, and/or "hawkish" elements in the Philippine military -- to a peace accord. The imminent resumption of talks will be welcome news, and even moreso are the indications of apparent new flexibility by the MILF on a more realistic proposal on territory. End Summary. -------------- Exploratory Talks Set To Resume -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Executive Director of the GRP Peace Negotiations Panel Ryan Sullivan, peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will likely resume in Kuala Lumpur on May 1. Included on the agenda for the 14th Round of Exploratory Talks are the MILF's latest proposal on territory, the inclusion of Sweden (and possibly Canada as well) on the International Monitoring Team, and the Bangsamoro Leadership and Management Institute. -------------- MILF Compromises -------------- ¶3. (C) Sullivan described an early April MILF proposal as a "significant compromise" on the prospective territorial boundaries for a new "Bangsamoro Juridical Entity." Municipalities and barangays (townships) from only three provinces outside of the "core" six-province Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao -- Sultan Kudarat, North Cotabato, and Lanao Del Norte -- were in the latest proposal, which remains under review by the Philippine Cabinet. Sullivan admitted that it would be "difficult" for the MILF leadership to reduce its territorial claims further without damaging its credibility among MILF supporters. Sullivan nonetheless predicted no final agreement on territory during this next round of negotiations. He emphasized that members of both the GRP and the MILF Peace Panels wanted to end their eight-month impasse and to revive momentum in the peace process before the May 14 Congressional and local elections. ¶4. (C) According to MILF Information Committee Chairman Mohagher Iqbal, a 5-day seminar-workshop on self-determination took place on February 23-27 at the MILF Camp in Sultan Kudarat, Shariff Kabunsuan Province. (Note: This was a week after the meeting by Embassy delegation led by DCM with MILF Central Committee members described in ref d. End note) In attendance were members of the MILF Central Committee and delegates from various parts of Mindanao, including Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Davao, and Zamboanga. Iqbal did not confirm that the participants specifically debated the merits of the new proposal or even discussed it, however. -------------- Support From New Congress Crucial -------------- ¶5. (C) MILF Peace Panel member Michael Mastura separately underscored that the outcome of the upcoming elections was of crucial importance to the eventual success of the peace talks. Creation of a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity would eventually require enabling legislation as well as a plebiscite that a majority of Congress would have to approve. Mastura, a former member of Congress, noted that peace in Mindanao was an issue that crossed party lines, describing support from some members of the Opposition for a Bangsamoro MANILA 00001243 002 OF 002 Juridical Entity, while certain pro-Administration politicians were opposed. Mastura added that the MILF leaders continue to hold internal discussions on the establishment of their own political party, which he emphasized would be completely independent of any existing national level party. -------------- Concerns Over Potential "Spoilers" -------------- ¶6. (C) While expressing cautious optimism for the peace talks, Mastura voiced concerns about potential "spoilers" -- powerful business families (he specifically cited the Alcantaras),traditional politicians (notably, the Ampatuan clan),and what he called "hawkish elements" within the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Mastura added that he had personally drafted MILF Chairman Al-Haj Murad Ebrahim's response to President Arroyo's March 14 directive calling for closer cooperation between the AFP and established peace process mechanisms (ref c). While recognizing the importance of this directive, Mastura underscored the need for sustained vigilance by Malacanang and Congress for its implementation. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The imminent resumption of talks will be welcome news, and even moreso are the indications of apparent new flexibility by the MILF on a more realistic proposal on territory. Whatever deal on territory eventually emerges from the talks will be a hard sell locally and in Congress, but one on which Malacanang seems prepared to make a full court press to succeed when the time comes. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ JONES