AL-WIFAQ LEADER FIRES SHOT ACROSS GOVERNMENT'S BOWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 000939 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL BA SUBJECT: AL-WIFAQ LEADER FIRES SHOT ACROSS GOVERNMENT'S BOWS Classified By: Ambassador Adam Ereli for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Al-Wifaq leader Sheikh Ali Salman told media that he now regrets having stood for parliament last year and is considering quitting the legislature. Although Salman is, at least for now, just posturing, even the prospect of his withdrawal (and of the Wifaq MPs who would presumably follow him) is a warning to the government to address Shi'a grievances more seriously in the upcoming session of parliament. It is also a warning to his poorly-disciplined parliamentary party rank and file to shape up. End summary. ¶2. (C) Sheikh Ali Salman grabbed headlines on October 8 when he told Al-Wasat daily that he now regrets having stood for election in 2006. He claimed that he may withdraw from the lower house of parliament at any time, but at the same time said he had not changed his mind about supporting Al-Wifaq's participation in parliamentary politics. Salman said that he thinks he could be more effective and useful outside the parliament. ¶3. (C) Salman's statements were directed primarily toward the government. Our Al-Wifaq interlocutors have told us many times that they believe the government has not dealt seriously with their concerns, that it has resisted sharing meaningful power with the (Wifaq-dominated) parliament, and that unless Al-Wifaq can show its supporters some tangible benefits of parliamentary participation, it will become more and more difficult to resist the arguments of the many Shi'a who view King Hamad's democratization program as a sham. Salman's foreign affairs advisor, Saeed Al-Majed, told Pol/Econ chief that Al-Wifaq is feeling pressure from the unregistered, rejectionist Al-Haq movement. Al-Haq continues to criticize Al-Wifaq's decision to participate in the political system and takes every opportunity to chip away at its support within the Shi'a community. ¶4. (C) Despite this, a Wifaq walk-out is not likely in the short run. Al-Wifaq MP Jassim Hussein, speaking to Pol/Econ chief October 8, said that Salman was expressing his frustration with internal party disagreements, and with his inability to advance Wifaq's agenda in parliament. Hussein said this was Salman's way of putting the government on notice that it needs to work with Al-Wifaq during the parliamentary session that begins on October 17. Al-Wifaq will want the next session of parliament to focus on unemployment, "political" naturalization of Sunnis, corruption, ministerial accountability, and the pace of reforms. ¶5. (C) During a conversation with the Ambassador on October 10, Al-Wasat daily editor-in-chief Mansour Al-Jamri said that Salman's intent was to shore up his support within Al-Wifaq and deal with internal dissent. Al-Jamri posited that Salman's threat to leave the parliament was intended to remind bickering MPs what it might be like without him, noting that the seventeen other Al-Wifaq MPs are not the most talented people the party has to offer. Indeed, one of these Al-Wifaq MPs commented publicly after Salman's statements that he would consider leaving the party and becoming independent if Salman left the parliament. Al-Jamri assessed Al-Wifaq's position as "weak and desperate," saying that it is "a prisoner of the street and the clerics." ¶6. (C) Comment: Bahrain's Shi'a community remains frustrated with Bahrain's political order , five years after King Hamad launched his democratization initiative. The timing of Ali Salman's remarks, ten days before the opening of parliament, was no accident, and his message was clear: the government must begin to deal seriously with Al-Wifaq and address at least some of its core issues or risk pushing its leadership to reconsider their commitment to participation in the political process. At the same time, his comments reminded fellow Wifaqis of the need to close ranks in the coming session of parliament. A Wifaq walkout is not imminent, but could become a possibility if the upcoming session of parliament does not produce gains for Wifaq to show its constituents. As one Al-Wifaq member put it, "They have to let us win once in a while." ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** ERELI