MARINE CORPS COMMANDANT DISCUSSES IRAN, IRAQ,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000343 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS MCAP BA BILAT OFFICIALS SUBJECT: MARINE CORPS COMMANDANT DISCUSSES IRAN, IRAQ, BAHRAINI MILITARY WITH MINISTER OF DEFENSE Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) Minister of Defense General Shaikh Khalifa Al Khalifa told Marine Corps Commandant General James Conway April 5, that he had received intelligence about an Iranian submarine that had entered Saudi waters recently, but when the information was passed to the Saudis, they did not act on it. General Khalifa said that the region had been able to bear Iran's "meddling fingers," referring to its support of various terror groups, but if Iran were to develop a nuclear device, the region would experience a nuclear arms race. In Iraq, the Minister pointed to the need for efforts on several fronts beyond the military, including public relations, social services, and mediation between religious groups. He also identified two areas in which the Marine Corps could provide assistance to the Bahraini military: 1) by making available M-60 spare tank parts, and 2) by encouraging contact between the administration and students of the Marine Corps Staff College and Bahrain's newly opened Military Staff College. End summary. -------------- Iran Unpredictable -------------- ¶2. (S) In a meeting April 5 with Marine Corps Commandant General James Conway, Minister of Defense General Shaikh Khalifa Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa stated that he had received intelligence about an Iranian submarine that had entered Saudi waters recently. Bahrain informed the Saudi government, but according to the Minister, the Saudis did not take the information seriously. The Minister characterized the Iranian leadership as being fragile inside but wanting to outwardly present a false front of strength at the highest levels. He said that Iran will always have its "meddling fingers" abroad, supported by a healthy budget at the Iranian president's disposal to channel funds to terror groups in Lebanon, Iraq and beyond. ¶3. (C) General Khalifa said that if the nuclear issue with Iran does not escalate, the region can live with the status quo, but if Iran succeeds in building a nuclear weapon, there will be a nuclear arms race in the region. He expressed hope that Iran would not develop a weapon, but said that Iran points to other countries in the region, such as Pakistan and Israel, which have nuclear weapons, and wonders why it should not be allowed to develop them. The Minister pointed to South Africa as an example of a country that abandoned its nuclear weapons program, hoping that Iran would do the same. "Adding members to the (nuclear) club will be a nightmare for us in the region and for the rest of the world." He said, "Most frightening is that regimes such as Iran's do not have a strong system of government accountability, so if it were to develop a weapon, it would only take a small number of people to make the decision to use it. We have seen this happen before; both Iraq and Iran have used chemical weapons." -------------- Progress in Iraq -------------- ¶4. (C) When asked about the progress in Iraq, General Conway described signs in Anbar province that segments of the Sunni population were banding together against Al Qaida in Iraq (AQI). He said he was encouraged by early signs of success of the "surge" in Baghdad and hoped this success would contribute also to operations in Anbar. The Minister acknowledged the complexity of the situation and commented on the need for a comprehensive effort, including public relations, social services, and mediation between religious groups. General Khalifa stressed the importance of increased Iraqi involvement in the overall effort, while recognizing that Iraqi forces are not up to full strength yet and that loyalty to local militias, rather than to the central government, is a considerable problem. -------------- Areas of Need for Bahraini Military -------------- ¶5. (C) In discussing Bahrain's military readiness, General Khalifa requested assistance for Bahrain's fleet of 160 M-60 tanks. He said that he had mentioned this request previously, but had been encouraged to consider purchasing M-1 tanks. He said that with recent budget reductions and parliament's increasing oversight of the budget, it was MANAMA 00000343 002 OF 002 unlikely the army would be able to consider a purchase of M-1 tanks in the near future. In the meantime, he said the military was having some trouble finding spare parts and wondered if the Marine Corps would consider making parts available to Bahrain. General Conway said that he would look into this possibility. ¶6. (C) The Minister also mentioned the Bahraini Military Staff College that opened this year with its first batch of students. He said that the Staff College could benefit from contact with both students and members of the administration from the Marine Corps Staff College (MCSC) and asked General Conway for his support. The Minister said that Bahrain would like to look to the the MCSC as a model for its Staff College and requested that more formal contacts be established. General Conway welcomed the engagement. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** MONROE