ALN: FSLN PLOTTING TO BUY VOTES AND DIVIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000958

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: ALN: FSLN PLOTTING TO BUY VOTES AND DIVIDE
OPPOSITION

REF: A. MANAGUA 0847


B. MANAGUA 0331

C. 06 MANAGUA 2725

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: National Assembly deputies of the Nicaraguan
Liberal Alliance (ALN) agree that, theoretically, the
Assembly could serve as a check to President Ortega's
totalitarian tendencies. Unfortunately, the FSLN will work
hard to maintain Liberal divisions and build popular support
through the use of off-budget funds derived from Venezuelan
largesse. End Summary.


2. (C) On 21 March, Embassy officials and INR analysts met
with ALN deputies Luis Callejas, Ramiro Silva, and Alejandro
Bolanos to discuss the actions of the Ortega administration
and the role of the opposition. Bolanos commented that
Ortega will attempt to implement a Venezuelan model, and the
National Assembly is the only body of government that he does
not control.


3. (C) The deputies agreed that a unification of all of the
opposition caucuses is the only way to thwart Ortega's plans.
They felt however that the probability of such an alliance
is very unlikely because convicted PLC leader and Ortega ally
Arnoldo Aleman still controls many PLC votes. Callejas
stated that they cannot destroy Arnoldo, but maybe could
defeat him through fair internal party elections. Bolanos
also warned that several PLC and ALN deputies have already
been compromised by FSLN threats and/or bribes. He claimed
that the FSLN has appointed a deputy to &shadow8 a member
of the opposition and watch their activities. According to
Callejas, the six deputies of the Convergencia are a "lost
cause" and will never betray Ortega.


4. (C) Callejas explained that the FSLN will have $150
million in off budget funds each year through a deal with
Chavez that will allow them to repay 40% of the cost of
Venezuelan oil imports in 25 years, while spending the
interest on programs that will buy the support of the rural
poor. In time, this strategy will garner the FSLN enough
votes to win elections outright.


5. (C) In the meantime, the FSLN is plotting to keep the
opposition divided. Callejas and Bolanos stated that the
FSLN/PLC plan to file charges against Montealegre and Bolanos
Administration officials so that Cardinal Miguel Obando, head
of Ortega,s &Peace and Reconciliation Commission,8 can
step in and push for a general amnesty that would include
Aleman. Aleman,s new freedom and the &contrived8
Conservative Party division over whether or not to break from
the ALN are all part of a plan coordinated by Ortega to give
the ALN an image of weakness, the deputies explained.


6. (C) Comment: Although the ALN deputies were pessimistic
that the PLC and Convergencia deputies would ever break with
the caudillos, Ortega,s increasingly totalitarian behavior
has generated public criticism from both groups. Even ALN
renegade-turned-Sandinista lawmaker Salvador Talavera has
joined the chorus, publicly challenging Ortega to deliver on
his campaign agreement to compensate the Contras, or be "made
to" do so. The problem, as always, is the lack of leadership
in the opposition to provide a coherent alternative. The ALN
legislators were easily able to identify challenges, but
failed to propose viable solutions.
TRIVELLI