LIBERAL UNITY OR DISUNITY COULD DETERMINE OUTCOME OF NICARAGUA,S 2008 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS, COUNTRY,S FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000905

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: LIBERAL UNITY OR DISUNITY COULD DETERMINE OUTCOME OF NICARAGUA,S 2008 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS, COUNTRY,S FUTURE

REF: A. MANAGUA 0745


B. MANAGUA 0616

C. MANAGUA 0577

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: According to a recent New Link study, the
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) could win 77 of
the 153 municipalities in Nicaragua's 2008 municipal
elections if the two estranged liberal parties run
separately. This outcome would boost the FSLN's chances to
win the 2011 presidential race. On the other hand, if the
liberals ally for the mayoral races, combined they stand to
win 124 out of 153 municipalities. In the event the
Sandinista dissident party joined a liberal alliance, the
opposition could win up to 18 additional races, and guarantee
solid victories in strategic departmental capitals, including
Managua, Matagalpa, and Leon. President Ortega's
determination to keep the liberals divided enabled him to win
the presidential election and offers him the most viable
route to remain in power. We expect Ortega will do whatever
it takes to keep the status quo, including delaying the
municipal elections until 2011 to coincide with the national
election calendar if the liberals start uniting. End
Summary.


2. (C) According to projections by a New Link Political
senior consultant Gilberto Valdez, who recently met with
PolCouns, if Nicaragua's two estranged liberal parties run
separately for the November 2008 municipal elections, the
FSLN could win 77 of the 153 municipalities. Basing his
projections on the results of the 2006 presidential race,
Valdez warned that this outcome would enhance the FSLN's
chances to win the 2011 presidential race. On the other
hand, if the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and the
Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) ally for the mayoral
elections, combined they stand to win 124 out of 153
municipalities, including 13 of the 17 department capitals.
This second scenario would favor the opposition and greatly
diminish the FSLN's chances to remain in power, opined
Valdez.


3. (C) Valdez, who later forwarded an electronic copy of the
results (forwarded to desk on 10 April),highlighted the
following two scenarios to make his point:

Divided Liberals Scenario United Liberals Scenario


FSLN: 77 29

PLC: 54 73

ALN: 22 51

Department Capitals

FSLN: 11 4

PLC: 2 4

ALN: 4 9

Comment
- - - -


4. (C) New Link's projections do not factor in other
considerations that could benefit Ortega's party. In the
past, the lower voter turnout for municipal elections has
advantaged the FSLN, as its disciplined supporters are more
likely to vote than their liberal counterparts. Further, the
current government will certainly play its patronage card to
the hilt to gain municipal support.


5. (C) While the study does not highlight the possible effects of the Sandinista dissident party (MRS) joining an ALN-PLC alliance, according to the data, MRS support could add an additional 14 to 18 municipalities to the opposition's belt and probably ensure solid victories in the departmental capitals of Managua, Leon, Matagalpa, and Ocotol (Nueva Segovia). On the other hand, if the ALN allied solely with the MRS, this alliance could stand to win 7 or 8 additional races, including the strategic department seats of Managua, Leon, Carazo, and Chinandega.


6. (C) Ortega's determination to keep the liberals divided
is understandable. The split vote enabled him to win the
presidential election and offers him the most viable route to
remain in power. His government's recent decision to grant
PLC caudillo/convicted money launderer Arnoldo Aleman
country-wide "house arrest" was likely driven by this
calculation. We expect Ortega will do whatever it takes to
keep the status quo, including delaying the municipal
elections until 2011 to coincide with the national electoral
calendar if the liberals start uniting. We also expect
Aleman will do his utmost to maintain his hegemony over the
PLC, even attempting to thwart allied/consensus candidacies
if necessary.


7. (C) Former MRS presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin has
publicly and privately called for a strategic alliance
between his party and Eduardo Montealegre's ALN for the
municipal elections. The two leaders have discussed the
possibility, and it has gained some traction among a number
of supporters in the two parties. According to a pro-ALN
member of the Liberal Forum (Foro Liberal),an association
comprising a mix of ALN and PLC sympathizers, the ALN should
first ally with the MRS to build the critical mass required
to draw popular support from disaffected PLC militants who
feel betrayed by Aleman's complicity with Ortega.
TRIVELLI