NGO GIVES ORTEGA A FAILING GRADE ON HIS FIRST 60 DAYS

UNCLAS MANAGUA 000871 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: NGO GIVES ORTEGA A FAILING GRADE ON HIS FIRST 60 DAYS ¶1. (U) Summary: After a legal, economic and political analysis of the Ortega administration's first sixty days, Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN),an influential civil society organization, gave the government a failing grade. Analysts attacked the government's numerous decrees and legislative initiatives that run counter to the constitution and legal precedent, and its growing totalitarian tendencies. An expert economist reported that the administration has (so far) maintained economic policies similar to previous governments, and will likely continue to be dependent on foreign assistance. End Summary. Legal Analysis - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) Dr. Gabriel Alvarez, a Constitutional Law specialist, based his analysis on the proposed laws and regulations supported and enacted by the Executive and Legislative branches. He noted that six laws, twenty-three decrees and three presidential agreements have been published since the inauguration, and that many of them violate and/or contradict the Constitution and a number of existing laws. The following examples highlight particularly egregious transgressions: ¶A. Decree 02-2007, the President creates the "Latin American Unity" Medal. According to Article 138.14 of the Constitution, only the National Assembly is authorized to create honorific orders and other distinctions of national character. ¶B. Decree 03-2007 contradicts Law 290, Article 11, where the President of the Republic has the faculty to create as many secretariats as he wants, but does not have the faculty to create the so-called Councils, created in Article 1 of Decree 03-2007. ¶C. Presidential Agreement 16-2007 appoints Rosario Murillo as the coordinator of the Council of Communication and Citizenry, violating disposition of Article 11 of Law 438 "Law of Probity," which explicitly establishes in numeral a. that the spouse or common-law spouse cannot exercise public functions. ¶D. Law 610 "Reform of Ley Marco" Article 1, violates the constitutional principle of superiority, established in Article 182 of the Constitution, as it postpones the entrance in force of Law 520 and other reforms. ¶E. Decree 6-2007 violates the autonomy laws of the North and South Atlantic Autonomous Regions by establishing a "Council of Development of the Caribbean Coast" to coordinate the consultation processes of the regional governments. ¶F. Decree 10-2007 Reform of Decree 44-2004 in Article 6 grants executive functions to the Coordinator of the Council of Communication and Citizenry, concerning the official travel of government officials, violating what is established in Law 612 "Reform to Law 290" Article 11, which states that councils cannot perform any executive functions. ¶G. Decree 8-2007 that creates in Article 1 the National Council of Reconciliation and Peace and grants executive faculties, such as making policies, plans, programs and projects to be considered by the National Assembly regarding peace, reconciliation and national unity, violates the same law and article previously described. ¶3. (U) In addition, Dr. Alvarez criticized President Ortega's "total disrespect for the legal structure," by illegally seizing control of property from autonomous institutions, altering the National Seal in violation of the constitution, and flouting the Cultural and National Patrimony laws by giving away original manuscripts of famed poet Ruben Dario. Dr. Alvarez also stated that the Sandinista government's secretive communications policy violates the constitution, which establishes the right to information of the public regarding official activities. He characterized the administration's actions as "crude illegality" - not a lack of knowledge of legal techniques, but rather, an expression of authoritarianism. Political Analysis - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Cesar Castillo Navas of Movimiento por Nicaragua described the political acts of the President as authoritarian. He highlighted the creation of illegal citizenry councils, Ortega's refusal to move to the Presidential house, the taking over of the Olof Palme Building, disrespect of the National Symbols, nepotism, the giving away of cultural patrimony, and the appointment of Cardinal Miguel Obando to a public position. ¶5. (U) According to Castillo, Ortega's rule has been largely characterized by the concentration of power, secrecy and attacks on freedom of speech, making international commitments without consultation, erratic international relations, complaisance with interventionist attitudes (regarding Venezuela),and intending continuous re-election. Castillo also acknowledged a few "positive" reforms, such as the reduction of public sector "mega salaries," the elimination of extra fees for health care and education, and a financial austerity policy. ¶6. (U) Dr. Castillo concluded by advising the government to respect the constitutional order and laws and democratic freedoms, contribute to the strengthening of a rule of law, maintain respectful and harmonious relations with all countries, avoid confrontational rhetoric at international level, and consult the strategic decisions of the country with civil society. He also urged the President to abandon any plans to constitutional reform that would allow for presidential reelection. Economic Analysis - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) Economist Jose Luis Medal started his analysis by comparing the Ortega's economic policy to previous governments. He concluded that, while the administration has so far declined to state a comprehensive economic policy beyond socialist platitudes, actions to date in the realms of currency policy, credit policy, fiscal policy, and external cooperation have remained largely consistent. Medal predicted that the government would attempt to return to an agro-export driven growth model, but would remain dependent on foreign assistance. ¶8. (U) Dr. Medal noted that the government's current growth projections are largely based on Venezuelan oil concessions and direct financial aid, much of which is outside of the official budget process. Despite the administration's praise of "Bolivarian socialism," it continues to support regional free trade agreements and has not implemented price or currency controls. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Civil society's concern with Ortega's totalitarian tendencies continues to grow. Six hundred people attended Movimiento's presentation - an event that was planned for two hundred. We will continue to support efforts to monitor and review the administration at periodic intervals. TRIVELLI