CODEL NELSON MEETS WITH LIBERAL LEADERS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000538 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN AND H FOR MIKE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR OVIP VE NU SUBJECT: CODEL NELSON MEETS WITH LIBERAL LEADERS IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY Classified By: CDA Peter Brennan for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The heads of the Nicaraguan National Assembly Liberal caucuses recently shared with Senator Nelson their skepticism over President Ortega's professed commitments to democracy and reconciliation and believe that the Assembly and international community must serve as checks to Ortega's totalitarian ambitions. Maria Eugenia Sequeira of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and Maximino Rodriguez of the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) confessed to fears of retribution from the Sandinistas for criticizing the administration, but agree that Liberal deputies must accept risk for the good of the country. Both Sequeira and Rodriguez supportQe goal of unifying the two Liberal parties and forming a united front in the Assembly, but disagree on methodology and the role the party leaders should play in the process. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Codel Nelson met with the Liberal caucus chiefs on February 19 to discuss the future of Nicaragua under President Ortega and the role of the opposition. The meeting originally included Edwin Castro of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN),and Victor Hugo Tinoco of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS),but ultimately Castro and Tinoco could not attend. Consequently, the conversation became an open "family chat" between the two Liberals. The Direction of Nicaragua under the Ortega Administration - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) When Senator Nelson inquired about the future of Nicaragua under the Ortega Administration, Sequeira replied that Nicaraguans had hoped for the best and were encouraged by the FSLN's message of peace and reconciliation before the inauguration. Unfortunately, she commented, Ortega's message has changed during and after the inauguration as Ortega has sought support from hard-line governments in Venezuela and Iran and attempted to centralize control of the government in the Presidency. Sequeira specifically mentioned the Administration's direct violation of laws by taking control of the Olof Palme convention center without reimbursing the managing institution and granting powers and budgets to newly created citizen councils. ¶4. (C) Rodriguez stated that Ortega is a "hostage" of his inner circle of advisors, most of whom are not competent. Commenting on Ortega's "double talk" regarding relations with the U.S. and extremist regimes, he said that Ortega wants to "be favored by God and the Devil." Rodriguez criticized Ortega's refusal to destroy Nicaragua's stock of portable surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS),claiming that Ortega's intransigence could scare off investors and tourists who could perceive Nicaragua as unstable and insecure. ¶5. (C) Despite their skepticism, both Sequeira and Rodriguez believe that moderating factors will prevent Nicaragua from reverting to a full-fledged dictatorship. Sequeira mentioned pressure from the private sector and opposition control of the National Assembly. Rodriguez agreed that the Assembly will take a close look at Ortega's agreements with Iran and Venezuela and propose constitutional reforms to limit the President's powers. He also believes that Nicaragua's need for assistance from international organizations and the donor community will hold Ortega in check. Opposition Leaders Must Accept Risk, Despite Fears of Retribution - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Referencing the chaotic atmosphere and extra-judicial killings that occurred in the post-revolution period, Senator Nelson asked the deputies if they fear for their personal safety. Sequeira responded that she never left Nicaragua during the 1980s, enduring "ten years of terror." She believes that the Sandinistas have become more "sophisticated" in their intimidation tactics, although her children warn her not to criticize Ortega too openly, and she admitted that she is afraid to drive at night. Nevertheless, Sequeira stated that the deputies have a responsibility to overcome their fears for the sake of the country. ¶7. (C) Rodriguez recounted his experience as a contra fighter and agreed that the opposition deputies must "accept some level of risk." He said that Ortega's supporters are still assassinating their critics, mentioning the case of a journalist who was gunned down two years ago. Rodriguez, who maintains his residence in the department of Matagalpa (which he represents),was advised not to commute to give the Sandinistas less opportunity to kill him in an "accident." The Future of the Opposition and Liberal Unity - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Rodriguez and Sequeira engaged in a lively but respectful discussion sparked by questions from Senator Nelson and Ambassador Trivelli regarding Liberal unity and the future of the opposition. Both agreed that Liberal unity is essential to block Ortega's totalitarian tendencies and reverse the Sandinistas' recent electoral gains in municipal and national elections. Sequeira insisted that PLC leader (and ex-President and convicted money launderer) Arnoldo Aleman is beholden to his political pact with Ortega and should retire to allow ALN leader Montealegre to assume the unquestioned mantle of Liberal leadership. Rodriguez did not defend Aleman, but faulted Montealegre's lack of charisma and suggested that both leaders step aside. Senator Nelson reminded them that Chavez owes his power to the infighting of Venezuelan opposition forces and urged them not to let that happen in Nicaragua. ¶9. (U) Participants: Nicaragua: ALN Caucus Chief Maria Eugenia Sequeira PLC Caucus Chief Maximino Rodriguez USG: Senator Bill Nelson Mrs. Grace Nelson Ms. Caroline Tess Ms. Sherry Davich Captain Gene Moran Ambassador Paul Trivelli DCM Peter Brennan Polcouns Victoria Alvarado Poloff Timothy L. Smith, note taker Poloff Irene Marr, control officer ¶10. (U) This cable was cleared by Codel Nelson. TRIVELLI