PLC DEPUTY WARNS OF OPPORTUNISTIC FSLN INCURSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000324 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID NU SUBJECT: PLC DEPUTY WARNS OF OPPORTUNISTIC FSLN INCURSIONS INTO LIBERAL STRONGHOLDS REF: MANAGUA 0241 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) deputy Freddy Torres recently warned that the Sandinistas are working to buy the loyalty of vulnerable and impoverished farmers in the Liberal heartland, and the Liberals do not have the resources to oppose them. Torres agreed that the PLC must seek unity with the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) to fend off Sandinista domination. He explained that the two parties are discussing a common legislative agenda, which, however, may be derailed by the upcoming contentious votes for Supreme Court magistrates that will require support from the Sandinista Front (FSLN) caucus. Torres also warned that the Sandinistas' proposed salary cuts are a ploy to gain more leverage over the Liberals. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloffs met with PLC deputy Freddy Torres of Matagalpa on February 1 to discuss Sandinista activity in his department, Liberal unity, and legislative issues. Torres was pleased with the attention, and urged us not to shun the entire PLC because of the actions of a few. We responded (as we have in the past) that we do not have a problem with the PLC per se, but rather that it continues to be controlled by convicted ex-President Arnoldo Aleman, a discredited figure who is constantly manipulated by President Daniel Ortega under the threat of imprisonment. He then recognized that the PLC made a mistake by supporting Ortega's request to "fast-track" the Law 290 reforms (reftel). FSLN Working to Win Over Farmers in Liberal Strongholds - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Torres warned that the Sandinistas will seduce impoverished farmers in rural areas using discounted loans subsidized by Venezuela and other patrons. They have already begun to work in traditionally Liberal bastions, such as Jinotega and Matagalpa, he said. Torres explained that, in general, the non-Sandinista guilds and organizations were persecuted during the 1980s and then largely ignored by the donor community during the 1990s in favor of the better organized Sandinista groups, resulting in a weak independent civil society sector unable to respond to the needs of the people. Torres then made a pitch for "CafeNic," a Liberal-oriented association for small and medium coffee producers active in eight departments. He did not offer a specific proposal at the time of the meeting, but noted his interest in a meeting with USAID. Liberal Unity and the Aleman Question - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Torres agreed that the Liberals must seek unity or risk Sandinista domination of Nicaragua for the foreseeable future. He equivocated on the question of ousting Aleman from the PLC, commenting that there is "no one available to take his place" and that Aleman must be gradually sidelined within the party. Most of the PLC wants to "do the right thing," he claimed, and work with the ALN. ¶5. (C) Torres commented that he has been involved in informal talks with ALN deputies (such as Jamileth Bonilla) on the subject of unification. He advised that the discussions should be conducted openly, caucus to caucus, not by officially designated emissaries. Torres confided that Aleman would only send his confidants -- specifically Wilfredo Navarro, Oscar Moncada, Maria Dolores Aleman, and Noel Ramirez -- to control the process and shut out moderate deputies. ¶6. (C) Torres also warned us about the lack of confidence and coordination within the ALN, another reason to hold "open" discussions. He recounted that before the inauguration he approached Montealegre privately to discuss the composition of the National Assembly's Executive Board, but Montealegre rebuffed him, refusing to negotiate with "corrupt PLC delinquents." According to Torres, Montealegre never revealed the contents of the meeting to the ALN, giving his deputies the impression that the PLC would only negotiate with the FSLN. Opportunities and Challenges in the National Assembly - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Torres was confident that a Liberal alliance could count on sufficient support for simple majority votes. He specifically mentioned the proposed Freedom of Information Law as a priority that could help rein in the Sandinistas. Torres was less certain about qualified majority votes, such as the election of new Supreme Court and Supreme Electoral Council magistrates, which would mathematically require at least some votes from the FSLN caucus. We advised him to approach civil society groups as allies to pressure the FSLN to vote for independent, qualified magistrates instead of political party hacks. We also suggested that some Convergencia deputies (allied members of the FSLN caucus from other political parties) may be open to negotiating with the Liberals. ¶8. (C) One of the populist reforms on the FSLN legislative agenda is to reduce the salaries of Assembly deputies from $3,500 to $2,000 per month. Torres warned that this will make those Liberal deputies who are not independently wealthy more susceptible to FSLN bribes. He is also convinced that the FSLN deputies will receive under the table "supplements" to their income to make up for any salary cuts. Comment - - - - ¶9. (C) The Sandinistas' eagerness to ram through anti-democratic reforms in the Assembly and Aleman's continued subjugation to Ortega are clearly splintering the PLC. Although wary of confronting Aleman outright, a group of moderate deputies appears ready to negotiate in good faith with the ALN to develop an agenda independent of the Ortega-Aleman political pact. A vote on the Freedom of Information Law could serve as a litmus test for the direction and unity of the PLC caucus. TRIVELLI