CONSERVATIVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ALN...

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000295 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR ELAB KDEM NU SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ALN... FOR NOW REF: A. MANAGUA 0241 ¶B. MANAGUA 0175 ¶C. 06 MANAGUA 2625 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Conservative National Assembly deputy Alejandro Bolanos, one of the leading Conservative Party voices in Nicaragua, recently confided to poloff that the Conservatives will continue to support the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, Bolanos has serious doubts about ALN chief Eduardo Montealegre's leadership skills. As president of the Labor Commission in the National Assembly, Bolanos plans to track illegal firings of civil servants in the Executive and partisan dismissals of contractors at the National Assembly. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff met with National Assembly deputy Alejandro Bolanos on January 29 to discuss the Conservative Party's future within the ALN and Bolanos' role as the new president of the Assembly's Labor Commission. Bolanos, a nephew of former President Enrique Bolanos, is regarded as a prominent Conservative with a strong voice within the Conservative Party (PC). In the past, he has argued for the Conservatives to form a separate caucus in the Assembly to give the party its own voice independent from the ALN. Bolanos on the Conservatives Role in the ALN, Negotiations with the PLC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) At the start of the meeting, Bolanos launched into a brief history of the PC, explaining its role as a great party with 200 years of history, although the Conservatives have witnessed a gradual decline in the last 70 years due to "Liberal and Sandinista dictatorships." Bolanos mentioned that a pre-election poll revealed that 14-18 percent of Nicaraguans still identify themselves as Conservatives. (Comment: PC President Azalia Aviles earlier quoted similar figures to us. This claim is not unrealistic, although many Nicaraguans hold memberships in several parties and will strategically vote for the party/candidate they believe has the best chance of success. With the exception of a handful of mayoral races, this is rarely the Conservative candidate or party. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) Although Bolanos complained that "we are hidden within the ALN," he agreed that "the moment is not right" for the Conservatives to form an independent caucus. The PC has five deputies and nine alternates in the National Assembly, as well as two deputies in the Central American Parliament. (Note: A party must have a minimum of four deputies to form an independent caucus. End Note.) Poloff remarked that the PC did much better in the Alliance than it would have running alone. Bolanos nodded, but stated that the possibility of breaking away gives the PC more bargaining power within the ALN. "We are the most organized and coherent element of the ALN," he stated. Bolanos explained that the PC has already begun to identify "strong candidates" to compete in the ALN primaries prior to the 2008 municipal elections. ¶5. (C) Regarding the negotiations with the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) to unify the opposition caucuses (ref B),Bolanos acknowledged that he is part of the ALN negotiating committee and confirmed that talks with the PLC "will continue." He concurred that convicted PLC leader and ex-President Arnoldo Aleman is the primary obstacle to unification. "Aleman is a more devoted Sandinista than Ortega," Bolanos said. He agreed that the opposition parties must formulate an agenda in advance rather than merely reacting to Sandinista initiatives. Bolanos commented that one complicating element is that the PLC Liberals "don't like or trust Conservatives," although "fortunately the ALN Liberals are learning to like us." Eduardo is a "Feeble Leader" but a "Good Manager" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) When asked about Eduardo Montealegre's capacity to lead the ALN, Bolanos rolled his eyes and described Montealegre as "feeble." According to Bolanos, Montealegre lacks the "passion and fire" of a traditional leader (like Aleman, for example),although he is a "good manager and a good friend." Bolanos believes that Montealegre is an introvert who must force himself to "work the crowds." Labor Commission will Investigate Unjustified Firings - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) As head of the National Assembly's Labor Commission, Bolanos plans to investigate the alleged illegal firings of civil servants by their new Sandinista bosses. He explained that the Civil Service Law protects about 6,000 workers in the Executive from unjustified dismissal. Edgar Fonseca, the former Director General of the Civil Service who has been replaced by Sandinista militant Denis Silva, will serve as an advisor to the Labor Commission, Bolanos said. The Commission will also investigate the cases of several National Assembly advisors who reportedly had their contracts terminated for partisan reasons. (Comment: We are encouraging ALN lawmakers to utilize Assembly committees to check Sandinista excesses and abuses -- including the unjustified firings and forced resignations of civil servants who are not FSLN militants. End Comment.) Comment: The PC's Symbiotic Relationship with the ALN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Bolanos is not the only Conservative who pines for the glory days of the past. Fortunately, most influential Conservatives reluctantly recognize that the PC's strength as a national party is indeed part of history as most of the ideological space has been occupied by the Liberals and the Sandinistas for many decades. Nevertheless, the PC continues to command significant support in departments such as Granada, Rivas, Chinandega, and Boaco (and part of the ALN's success in the first three departments was due to the PC presence). In addition, the party enjoys considerable financial and human resources that have proven key to the ALN's survival. Participation in the Alliance dramatically increased the PC's representation in the Assembly (from one to five deputies) and could provide similar benefits for the municipal elections. Simply put, the ALN and the PC need each other. Hopefully the Liberals and Conservatives will not forget that fact and allow age-old suspicions to poison their mutually beneficial relationship. TRIVELLI