MRS LOSES CAUCUS STATUS BUT CONTINUES AS MOST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000284 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KCOR KDEM NU SUBJECT: MRS LOSES CAUCUS STATUS BUT CONTINUES AS MOST VOCAL OPPOSITION GROUP REF: MANAGUA 0070 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) has lost its official status as a caucus in the Nicaraguan National Assembly, but its deputies continue to offer the most vocal opposition to President Daniel Ortega. MRS members are disappointed by the larger Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance's (ALN) apparent lack of resistance to Ortega's legislative assaults, and believe that convicted ex-President and leader of the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) Arnoldo Aleman is stronger than ever. They also assert that some of the Bolanos era officials were corrupt, but the level of corruption was at its peak during Aleman's presidency and that part of the judiciary's weaknesses are structural. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a January 26 cocktail with emboffs, MRS leaders Edmundo Jarquin (former presidential candidate),Dora Maria Tellez (MRS party president),Enrique Saenz (deputy),and Luis Carrion discussed the MRS' role in the National Assembly, the increasing power of Ortega and Aleman, and corruption in the Bolanos administration and the judiciary. The meeting was relaxed and cordial -- including former revolutionary commander Dora Maria Tellez, whose U.S. visa was denied two years ago for terrorist activities during the 1980s. Plight of the Opposition: Shrinking MRS, Inert ALN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) MRS deputy Enrique Saenz confirmed that the party's deputies lost their official caucus status after Mario Valle left the caucus following the elections and Juan Ramon Jimenez was expelled for allegedly "plotting" with the Sandinista Front (FSLN) to exclude Saenz from the Assembly's Executive Board (reftel). (Note: The MRS won five seats in the national elections, but the loss of Valle and Jimenez leaves the party with only three deputies, one short of the four necessary to form a caucus under Assembly rules. End Note.) Saenz explained that the MRS has lost office space and funds for administrative staff, as well as a special salary supplement for the deputies that is used to fund caucus expenses. Tellez insisted that the three remaining deputies will retain their identity as MRS representatives and continue to criticize objectionable actions of the Ortega administration. ¶4. (C) The MRS leaders expressed their disappointment with the ALN's lack of leadership and vocal opposition to Ortega's legislative assaults -- especially the reforms to the Organic Law and Law 290 that grant the FSLN more power. Carrion repeated the rumor that Ortega is threatening to support PLC efforts to prosecute ALN leader Eduardo Montealegre for his alleged role in the Cenis (debt bonds) scandal. (Note: During a January 29 meeting with Ambassador, Montealegre asserted that Ortega is not blackmailing him. Montealegre agreed that the ALN should have been more organized and forceful in opposing the Law 290 reforms and explained that an agreement with the PLC not to "fast-track" the reforms fell through at the last minute. End Note.) Caudillos More Powerful Than Ever - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) The MRS representatives pledged to continue their vocal opposition of Ortega's anti-democratic actions, but are concerned that pact leaders Ortega and Aleman are "more powerful and emboldened than ever." As an example of Ortega's confidence, Carrion noted that he had published the reforms in the official register before the vote in the National Assembly. In addition to the Ley Organica and Law 290 reforms, which grant the FSLN more power over the Assembly and centralized authority over the Executive, Ortega has extended his covert influence over the police and military. According to Tellez, Police Commissioner Carlos Palacios is a corrupt FSLN hard-liner whose role is to keep Police Chief Aminta Granera in line with compromising information he reportedly possesses. ¶6. (C) Carrion and Tellez agreed that Arnoldo Aleman has increased his influence over the PLC and marginalized critics such as Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado (the former presidential and vice presidential candidates on the PLC ticket). They noted that "everyone" in the PLC went to pay MANAGUA 00000284 002 OF 002 homage to Aleman at his 62nd birthday party on January 23. Carrion and Saenz commented that the opposition forces must organize an "offensive" against the FSLN instead of just reacting and playing defense. Corruption in the Bolanos Administration and Judiciary - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) When asked about corruption charges against prominent members of the Bolanos administration, Tellez responded that many officials were corrupt, including relatives of the former President. She specifically mentioned the well-publicized cases against former Transportation Minister Pedro Solorzano (a Bolanos confidant) and immigration chief Fausto Carcabelos (married to a Bolanos relative). They all commented, however, that endemic corruption reached its height under the Aleman administration. ¶8. (C) Tellez responded to a remark by the Ambassador about systematic corruption in the judiciary by stating that much judicial corruption is caused by an organizational defect. In Nicaragua, judges are jointly allocated to a general region instead of being assigned to a specific district. This allows claimants to "shop around" for a sympathetic/bribe-able judge, she explained. Tellez believes that reform efforts are doomed to failure unless structural adjustments occur. Comment: Aleman's Power - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) While it is true that latter-day Aleman critics Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado have been marginalized within the PLC (septel),many in the party rank and file are upset over the PLC's failure in the national elections and the pact-driven accommodation of the FSLN. Aleman's continued influence will depend on the patience of moderate PLC deputies and local leaders to tolerate continued FSLN manipulation and Aleman's success in rigging the upcoming internal PLC elections. TRIVELLI