RIZO: PLC AND ALN UNDERESTIMATED ONE ANOTHER TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000269

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU PREL
SUBJECT: RIZO: PLC AND ALN UNDERESTIMATED ONE ANOTHER TO
THE BENEFIT OF ORTEGA

REF: 2005 MANAGUA 2864

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Jose Rizo, the Liberal Constitutional Party's (PLC)
presidential candidate in the November 2006 race,
acknowledged to PolCouns on January 23 that he had
miscalculated the strength of rival Nicaraguan Liberal
Alliance (ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre, while
Montealegre had also underestimated the PLC's political
machinery, name recognition, and popular "staying power' in
Nicaragua's deep-rural northern areas. He lamented his
"failure to convince" U.S. officials before the election that
he could have reformed his party and sidelined PLC caudillo
Arnoldo Aleman, but also conceded that Aleman's power sharing
pact with Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) leader
Daniel Ortega would probably have precluded a Rizo victory in
the November 2006 election.


2. (C) Visibly sobered by Ortega's victory, Rizo warned that
the new president's efforts to consolidate power auger poorly
for Nicaragua. He remarked that the two estranged Liberal
parties must set aside their differences for the common good.
However, he acknowledged that Ortega and Aleman will do
their utmost to prevent Liberal unity.


3. (C) Rizo, who is determined to continue his appeal before
the Supreme Court regarding his entitlement to an alternate
(suplente) seat in the National Assembly, recounted how
Supreme Court Justice Martinez had recently told him that his
claim is valid, but political interests stand in the way.
According to Rizo, PLC caudillo Arnoldo Aleman is the
political force behind the Supreme Electoral Council's (CSE)
decision to disallow Rizo's right. Rizo explained that if he
fails to win his seat after exhausting all legal avenues, he
intends to file a complaint before the Inter-American Human
Rights Commission. (Note: According to Article 133 of the
Constitution, the elected incumbent president and vice
president are accorded principle and alternate seats,
respectively, in the legislature. The Constitution makes no
mention that the resignation of the elected vice president is
grounds for disqualification.)


4. (C) While conceding that Aleman continues to hold the
reins of the party, Rizo asserted that discontent among the
PLC's rank and file, and even among the party's traditionally
obedient Assembly lawmakers, is growing. He attributed their
disaffection to the party's abysmal electoral loss (in the
presidential race, the PLC placed third) and the realization
that Liberal disunity and the longstanding pact between
Ortega and Aleman had allowed Ortega to win the election.
According to Rizo, in his numerous consultations with PLC
followers since the electoral loss, they consistently call
for Liberal reunification and party reform -- including
ending Aleman's destructive hold over the party.

5. (C) Rizo agreed that the PLC and ALN should refrain from
public attacks and efforts to "steal" one others' followers -
actions that serve only to advantage Ortega further divide
the opposition. By crafting a common legislative agenda and
strategy, the two estranged parties could gradually build the
confidence to form a broader political alliance, suggested
PolCouns.


6. (C) Comment: Rizo's remorse and determination may be
theoretically encouraging, but he has lost the modest
political clout he once enjoyed. Nonetheless, some Assembly
lawmakers owe their candidacies to Rizo and he may still
exercise some influence over them. Rizo's comments also
track with those of his erstwhile running mate, Jose Antonio
Alvarado, who recently told DCM that he and Rizo had been
"duped" ("embarcado") by Aleman and that he was now fully
convinced that Aleman had deliberately worked against them to
deliver the presidency to Ortega. While trying to minimize
his own substantial role in the campaign attacks and
fabrications against ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre,
Alvarado also insisted that it was time for the two Liberal
parties to bury the hatchet and work together. He indicated
there was significant disenchantment among the PLC faithful
and professed his commitment to continue loosening Aleman's
stranglehold on the party. Alvarado's political capital has
fallen even further than Rizo's, however, and it is unlikely
he will have much influence in either PLC or ALN circles in
the political serpent-dance ahead.

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TRIVELLI