LIBERAL UNITY MOVES FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002287 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NU SUBJECT: LIBERAL UNITY MOVES FORWARD REF: MANAGUA 2246 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) - - - - Summary - - - - ¶1. (C) Members of several Nicaraguan opposition parties came together on October 4 to pledge their support for a new "National Unity Alliance." It is too early to tell if this new grouping will be the catalyst for building a strong united opposition to the Sandinista regime of President Ortega. The challenge for the Alliance is now to replicate itself at the municipal level. If indeed the Nicaraguan opposition can bridge their divisions to create a united, pro-democratic and anti-corrupt opposition, we should be prepared to help substantially in their efforts to secure a more democratic future for Nicaragua. End summary. - - - - - - - Flags waving - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) On October 4, more than a thousand jubilant supporters of the democratic cause gathered in an overflowing Managua conference hall, to welcome the formation of a new "National Unity Alliance." To shouts of "unity, unity, unity," supporters waved flags and cheered the cross-party collection of opposition politicians. Most members of the crowd were evidently supporters of the Liberal Alliance of Nicaragua (ALN),but in the sea of flags there were several red banners of the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC),and green flags of the Conservative Party (PC). ¶3. (U) ALN president Eduardo Montealegre was joined on the stage by leaders of several of the smaller parties in the ALN alliance. However, prominent members of the PLC on stage -- Jose Rizo, Jose Alvarado, and Enrique Quinonez -- were careful to make clear that they were signing the unity Manifesto in a "personal capacity," not as representatives of their party. The crowd reserved its most thunderous applause for Montealegre and Quinonez. ¶4. (C) Despite the happy show, there exists lingering doubt that this "Unity Alliance" will translate into a lasting alliance to defeat the Sandinistas. "This could be the start of a snowball effect," Jose Rizo's private secretary Alejandro Reyes told us. "At least, I hope it's not just a 'photo-op.'" Conservative Party leader Azalia Aviles told us on October 5 that this was a "great start," but that the challenge will be to build the Alliance at the municipal level -- that kind of work takes significant time and resources. She noted the inclusion of high profile figures from the PLC, such as Rizo, Alvarado and Quinonez, should help draw more support for the Alliance on the local level from Liberals frustrated with ex-President Aleman's "pacto" with Ortega. Aviles also reported that the "Unity Alliance" is reaching out to the anti-Ortega Sandinista Renovation Movement party (MRS) and the Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN). The timing of when either would join is still up in the air, and the PLC members participating in the Alliance are resisting an official role for the MRS. Aviles and a number of other signers will begin traveling this weekend outside Managua to promote the new Alliance. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶5. (C) There appears to be a real desire from the non-Sandinista majority in Nicaragua to see the national opposition leaders put their squabbles behind them. The October 4 creation of a Unity Alliance could be the first step in building a strong opposition free from the dominance of the corruption and caudillismo represented by former president and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman. However, to move the Alliance beyond a re-grouping of the parties at the national leadership level into a functioning alliance at the local level that can compete in next year's municipal elections, they are going to need additional resources and support. TRIVELLI