ALN PUSHING THE LIBERAL UNITY ENVELOPE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002110 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR KDEM NU SUBJECT: ALN PUSHING THE LIBERAL UNITY ENVELOPE REF: MANAGUA 2043 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary - - - - ¶1. (C) The Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance party (ALN) is pushing its fellow opposition Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) to prove that its true intentions are to cooperate against the Sandinista regime of President Ortega. As reported reftel, The ALN and PLC have signed agreements covering both a common legislative agenda in the National Assembly and a platform for electoral cooperation in advance of the 2008 Municipal Elections. The ALN has now put the PLC's commitment to democratic change in Nicaragua to the test. On September 11, the ALN tabled a legislative motion that would repeal several laws that provide legislative backing to the power structures of Ortega and his partner in corruption, former President and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman. The ALN is trying to force the PLC's hand to show whether the PLC will actually work in tandem with Nicaragua's democratic forces, or instead is still slavishly devoted to Aleman and his "Pacto" with Ortega. End Summary. Forcing the PLC's Hand - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) The ALN's new motion would repeal the "Ley Marco" and related laws. Repeal of the Ley Marco would bring into immediate effect constitutional changes that reduce the power of the executive, e.g., subject the naming of ministers to National Assembly approval. The ALN motion also seeks to repeal law 511 (which establishes the Superintendent of Public Services),law 512 (which establishes the Institute of Urban and Rural Property Reform),law 539 (law covering Social Security),and all related and derivative laws and legislative actions. ¶3. (C) ALN Deputy August Valle confirmed to us on September 12 that the ALN's intention is force the PLC's hand. The ALN motion passes to the Justice Committee for review, but before the matter is formally considered, the ALN and PLC will use their newly established legislative consultation mechanisms to hammer out a mutually agreeable compromise. Valle indicated that the ALN is uncertain what the outcome will be. ALN-PLC consultations over these laws will be a true test of Aleman's continued power over the PLC, Valle opined. ¶4. (C) For their part, prominent members of the PLC publicly complained about the unilateral manner in which the ALN had tabled these proposals. PLC Whip Maximino Rodriguez told the press on September 12 that the PLC would be introducing its own initiative to repeal the Ley Marco, but confirmed the party's intent to reconcile the two motions before the Justice Committee. Comment - - - - ¶5. (C) It is uncertain whether the PLC will join the ALN in its battle to support democracy in Nicaragua. Aleman is still in charge of the PLC governing body, and, if cooperation with the ALN directly counters his self-interest by in some way jeopardizing his "Pacto" with Ortega, he almost surely will torpedo liberal unity. By tabling legislative motions that directly affect the powers of the Presidency -- and by extension both Ortega and Aleman -- the ALN is indeed putting the PLC to the test. ¶6. (S) We will continue to monitor closely the ALN-PLC discussions, since opposition liberal unity is an essential element of any strategy to check the authoritarian impulses of the Ortega regime. As previously reported, the prospects for an opposition victory in the November 2008 municipal elections will be much improved if the two liberal parties approach the elections together. The parties are still working out the mechanisms for such cooperation and, once the modalities are agreed, are likely to need our (and others') assistance in effecting this cooperation. For example, if the ALN and PLC decide to choose mutual candidates through a process of primary elections, they may well seek help in organizing primaries. Fostering a strong non-Alemanista liberal opposition in Nicaragua is in our interests, and we should be prepared to provide that help if/when the time MANAGUA 00002110 002 OF 002 comes. TRIVELLI