NICARAGUAN OPPOSITION IN UNISON: FACT OR FICTION?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002043 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCOR NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN OPPOSITION IN UNISON: FACT OR FICTION? Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary - - - - ¶1. (C) On September 4, leaders from the two main liberal opposition parties in Nicaragua, the Liberal Alliance of Nicaragua (ALN) and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) announced that they had signed an agreement to pursue a common legislative agenda. A few days later, on September 7, both parties voted in unison against giving President Ortega the power to create citizen councils (CPCs). Although it has not been publicized, Post also has obtained a second agreement, signed by ALN President Eduardo Montealegre and PLC President Jorge Castillo Quant, which outlines four steps for cooperation in advance of the November 2008 municipal elections. Well informed sources from both parties assure us that their parties' intentions to cooperate are genuine, but mutual trust is low. Both the announcement of an ALN-PLC cooperation agreement and the September 7 vote are welcome indications of growing opposition unity, but in a political system where games-playing is the norm, we believe that it will take some months of demonstrated good will by both parties -- supported by cooperative actions -- to prove whether there is a genuine intent to forge a strong democratic opposition to President Ortega. End Summary. A Show of Opposition Unity - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) On September 4, leaders from the ALN and PLC appeared before the press to announce that after weeks of secret negotiations, they had reached an agreement on a joint legislative agenda. The agreement indicated that the two parties have agreed to 18 common legislative actions, to include working together to reform the Law 290 (to limit President Ortega's ability to create Citizens' Power Councils - CPCs) and creating a mechanism to reach agreement on how to repeal the Ley Marco (the law that delayed the entry into force of constitutional reforms that limit the Executive's power). The two parties' Whips (jefes de bancada) Maria Eugenia Sequeira (ALN) and Maximino Rodriguez flanked their party presidents at the press event. ¶3. (C) ALN President's chief advisor Kitty Monterrey passed us on September 5 a copy of an additional document, signed by both parties, that outlines a wider vision of cooperation, including a promise to work together towards the creation of �0A;an electoral alliance in advance of the November 2008 municipal elections. The agreement lists four specific areas of electoral cooperation that the parties will pursue: a) a mechanism to identify and select candidates; b) a decision on a common ballot number (Note: on the 2006 election ballots the PLC candidates were listed under box number 1 and ALN by box 9. End note.); c) campaign finances; and d) campaign conduct. Monterrey told us that the ALN national leadership was already in the process of drafting a letter to all municipal ALN leaders, instructing them to start working with their PLC counterparts with a view toward starting a process of identifying candidates for the 2008 elections. Skin Deep? - - - - - ¶4. (C) ALN President Montealegre had previously expressed to us his doubts that the ALN would be able to reach a legislative agreement with the PLC, citing the lack of PLC desire to cooperate. Monterrey echoed these doubts to us this week, noting that the ALN leadership questions whether the PLC will stick to the deal. She opined that despite the grass-roots pressure from PLC supporters for opposition liberal unity against the Sandinistas, many PLC deputies are still under the sway of PLC leader and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman. In Monterrey's view, there are few PLC deputies that Aleman can't still buy or blackmail, and Aleman does not support liberal opposition unity (unless he's in control). However, she explained, the ALN must be perceived as promoting unity. If, for some reason, unity doesn't prosper, the ALN does not want to be seen as the spoiler. ¶5. (C) For the PLC's part, Deputy Enrique Quinonez told us that many national PLC figures have a genuine desire to foster greater liberal cohesion. He noted that disillusionment with Aleman is not limited to the PLC MANAGUA 00002043 002 OF 002 grassroots, as many PLC Deputies resent the continued heavy handed pressure of Aleman. According to Quinonez, when Aleman was told that members of the PLC were negotiating a legislative strategy with the ALN, Aleman said "OK, I give you permission to talk to them." The response, Quinonez alleged, was "we are not asking for your permission, we're telling you." Quinonez admitted that Aleman can still use his power -- both money and control over certain institutions of state, e.g. the courts, the Comptroller's office, the National Electoral Council (CSE) -- to leverage the obedience of some PLC deputies. However, he maintained that Aleman's power within the party is waning, as frustration with Aleman's pro-Sandinista actions grows. Proof is in the Pudding? - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Quinonez argued that we would see the PLC working with the ALN to provide effective opposition to the Sandinista regime of Daniel Ortega. For example, he reemphasized the message that we have been hearing for weeks from PLC leaders, that it would be "political suicide" for any PLC legislator not to support amendments to the Law 290, conscribing Ortega's ability to create a nationwide network of Citizens' Power Councils (CPCs). "This was a clear mandate from the (PLC) party convention," Quinonez argued. ¶7. (C) On September 7, the National Assembly debated the reforms to Law 290 that the opposition controlled Justice Committee had proposed. The proposed reforms would remove from the powers of the President the right to create "Councils" as part of the executive branch. As our PLC contacts had predicted, all members of the PLC voted with the ALN, as well as the opposition members from the tiny Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) party, in favor of these reforms. In the final vote, the united opposition beat the Sandinista Assembly Deputies in 52 to 34 vote. Comment - - - - ¶8. (C) We continue to discount statements that downplay Aleman's control over the PLC, and we believe that the ALN's doubts about the PLC's true intentions are reasonably founded. If PLC leaders want us to believe that the party has turned a corner -- and now represents a pro-democracy party, rather than a pro-corruption, pro-pacto party -- they will need to demonstrate a consistent record over time of responsible opposition, and real cooperation with pro-democracy forces. At this point, with Aleman still at the helm, the prospects of PLC behaving as positive force for democracy in Nicaragua appear limited indeed. ¶9. (S) As previously reported, it is Post's belief that the democratic forces in this country remain especially vulnerable. However, the public show of growing cohesion among the opposition parties is welcome. Whatever the motivations, the fact that the PLC did not back down on its promises to help strike the legislative basis for Ortega to create Citizens' Power Councils (CPCs) also represents a positive step. If, and that's a big if, the PLC and ALN can continue to work together within the National Assembly, and can truly forge an electoral alliance, the prospects of a Sandinista victory in the 2008 municipal elections will be diminished. The 2008 elections are not yet a lost cause, and we need to stand prepared to assist those who represent a democratic future for this country. If the opposition parties themselves manage to come together, the prospects for our assistance falling on fertile ground will be much increased. TRIVELLI