NICARAGUAN PUBLIC SEES COUNTRY ON WRONG PATH WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAGUA 001750 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA FOR SHAWN BIRD/INR VICTORIA ALVARADO/NSC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ECON NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN PUBLIC SEES COUNTRY ON WRONG PATH WITH ORTEGA GOVERNMENT REF: A. MANAGUA 01184 ¶B. MANAGUA 0471 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Nicaraguan public opinion has continued to sour on President Daniel Ortega, with his approval rating taking a 60-point nose-dive from a positive 51 percent job approval rating in February to a negative 10 percent approval just four months later, according to the latest CID-Gallup poll conducted June 5 to 12. Although Ortega swept into office on a wave of optimism, public euphoria that his presidency would signal positive change has diminished. Citing uncertainties on the economic horizon and lack of jobs, many citizens are worried the country is headed in the wrong direction. Despite the increased sense of pessimism overall, Ortega has still held onto respectable approval ratings in the areas of delivering free education and healthcare. End Summary - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Negatives Outpacing the Positives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) A CID-Gallup poll of 1,258 households nationwide assessed public attitudes toward the Ortega administration and its impact the future of the country, Ortega's style of governance and management of the economy, as well as views of the opposition, foreign relations, and other issues of national concern. CID-Gallup concluded that the Ortega government had either lost, or simply failed to capitalize on, the good will and political capital which the government had enjoyed upon taking office in January when people held great expectations for change (Reftel A). The June findings suggest a high degree of impatience among the public and desire for immediate, concrete results. Once the initial euphoria normally associated with a new administration wore off, people have begun to see they are living with the same problems they endured under previous governments; thus the sunny views they may have held four months earlier no longer fit the reality. ¶3. (SBU) People saw the glass half-empty rather than half-full in a number of areas affecting their daily lives. In February, 57 percent were optimistic and only 17 percent were pessimistic regarding the direction of the country. By June, the same pollsters found that 57 percent of Nicaraguans no longer believed the country was on the right path, with less than a third (31 percent) still remaining positive. In addition, 57 percent were pessimistic about President Daniel Ortega,s ability to deliver on his campaign promises and rated him as accomplishing "very little" or "nothing." President Ortega was viewed least favorably by residents of the capital city Managua, by followers of the two main Liberal Parties--the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC),and among people with at least one year of university education. Given a 49 percent approval rating from the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN),Ortega appears to be facing a tough audience even within his own party. When polled in February, 87 percent of FSLN sympathizers opined that the future of the country would be better off with Daniel Ortega as president, and just 4 percent held the opposite view. ¶4. (SBU) With a 10 percent negative approval on job performance, Ortega has received the lowest rating of any president of the past 16 years, even worse than former president and convicted criminal Arnoldo Aleman of the PLC who had a 5 percent disapproval rating at a similar point in his term. More people held a negative perception of the way Ortega was handling the presidency (36 percent) than a positive one (26 percent). Attitudes toward his performance on the economy was even less favorable. Only 13 percent gave him a favorable rating for managing the economy, while 39 percent disapproved, and the remainder judged it neither good nor bad. Public opinion of Ortega's political persona, however, were actually more favorable that the assessments of job performance. He received a 43 percent favorable and a 48 percent unfavorable review, with nine percent expressing no opinion. ¶5. (SBU) Public opinion toward First Lady Rosario Murillo has also slid, with her negatives besting her positives. In February, when 42 percent approved of the first lady and 21 percent disapproved, by June she slipped to a 33 percent approval and 48 disapproval rating, matching her husband in the latter score. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - It's the Economy, Comandante - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) People have grown increasingly disillusioned about the country's economic outlook and the impact on their family's ability to make ends meet. Lack of employment, high cost of living, and a general sense of uncertainty about the country's future topped the list of chief concerns raised by respondents. At least 41 percent saw the economic situation getting worse, an opinion shared by 22 percent of FSLN sympathizers--compared to 43 percent who judged the situation as the same as it always has been. Although President Ortega pledged to generate more jobs on his watch to reduce the poverty and hunger that affects more than 3 million of the 5.1 million population, he has failed to live up to his promises. Just one out of every eight households polled judged President Ortega as managing the economy well. While 41 out of every hundred Nicaraguans believed there were fewer opportunities since Ortega assumed power, only 14 out of every hundred believed there were more, and 43 believed there has been no change. Ortega received positive marks for managing the economy "well," by only 13 percent of the population, a majority of which were Sandinista respondents. ¶7. (SBU) When asked what most concerned them at a personal or family level, the top three worries were: earnings did not cover basic necessities (34 percent),the head of household was out of work (19 percent),and increased neighborhood crime and violence (13 percent). One fifth of heads of households interviewed were without permanent employment and reported feeling under increased pressure to emigrate in search of better opportunities outside Nicaragua. This sense of disillusion was shared by 36 percent of FSLN sympathizers, especially those living in rural areas and with lower levels of education. ¶8. (SBU) People generally did not find themselves better off than they were before Ortega took office, with a majority (71 percent) asserting that the cost of living has risen "a great deal" in the last four months. While just under half (49 percent) perceive their family,s economic situation to be the same or stable compared to the previous year, 34 percent perceived it as worse and only 16 percent perceived it is better. Reaction to the government,s increase in the minimum wage was less than enthusiastic, with 68 percent finding the 18 percent raise in the urban and rural sectors of the economy insufficient, in contrast to 27 percent which found it to be adequate for now. Curiously, more people (34 percent) remained optimistic that their family's economic situation would improve in the coming year than feared it would get worse (27 percent). This relative sense of optimism toward the family's economic prospects, however, decreased from February when 41 percent believed their situation would improve, while only 11 percent worried it would worsen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Feeling Less Free, Less Safe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) The strength of Nicaragua,s democracy and freedom of expression has moved to shakier ground, in the view of most respondents. More than half (54 percent) were concerned that they were not free to express their political opinion without suffering some form of recrimination, in contrast to February when a less dramatic 39 percent held this similar concern. Close to the same number (51 percent) opined that President Ortega had failed to act democratically. A number of respondents lamented the continued wave of government employment firings. While six out of ten respondents rejected changing the constitution to allow for consecutive presidential election, three out of ten were in favor of it, but these supporters were primarily from the FSLN party. More than three-fourths polled wanted municipal elections held in 2008 and were opposed to their postponement. ¶10. (SBU) While President Ortega and his party won on campaign promises of peace and reconciliation, zero hunger and zero unemployment, and being the people's president, an increased number of the population no longer view these promises as credible. Most respondents believed the government either "never" or "almost never" acts on behalf of the people. These findings reveal a sharp contrast to the image people held in February, when 45 percent were confident that the Ortega government would be democratic and only 12 percent predicted he would follow a communist ideology and take the country back to the 1980s. ¶11. (SBU) Attitudes toward crime also reflect growing alarm about the country's security. More than half the public (55 percent) perceived that crime had worsened, and 22 percent reported that they or a member of their household had been a victim of assault or robbery in the past fourth months. Nevertheless, growing concern about crime did not translate into loss of confidence in law enforcement authorities, with more than half polled (56 percent) agreeing that the number of police directly involved with criminal elements was slight, and another 20 percent asserting there was no police involvement in crime at all. Meanwhile, National Police Commissioner Aminta Granera sustained her stellar standing with an overwhelming 80 percent approval. - - - - - - - - - - But All Is Not Lost - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (SBU) An interesting, if perhaps contradictory finding, is that despite the acceleration in negatives toward the president as a person and his ability to govern, a majority of 54 percent were still optimistic about the return of the Ortega government, possibly signaling that most people were not willing to give up their aspirations for the changes the new administration was supposed to deliver. Although concern about corruption was ranked second in overall problems facing the country (after unemployment),the survey found that the majority of the public believes that the level of corruption in seven key institutions (the judicial system, the presidency, customs, ministries, internal revenue service, public registry, and public health system) had either stabilized or diminished. ¶13. (U) Although most regarded Ortega as falling short on his campaign promises, he received credit for accomplishing results on two issues people identified as priorities for his government when it first took office: free education and healthcare. Nearly 90 percent of parents with children of school age had a good or very good view of the quality of education. Half of parents with children in public school indicated they were paying less for education since President Ortega had decreed that public education would be free, and 81 percent of those polled overall agreed that more children would be enrolled in primary and secondary school as a result of this government policy. ¶14. (U) The free healthcare policy garnered similar high marks, with 72 percent reporting they were relieved from having to pay for medical attention in state hospitals since the Sandinista declared it free of charge. More people rated the quality of healthcare in hospitals and clinics as good (45 percent) than as poor (23 percent). - - - - - - - - - - - - - Political Affiliation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶15. (SBU) More people pledged allegiance to the two main Liberal opposition parties than in February, but the FSLN still held onto the greatest share overall with 36 percent. The number of those identifying themselves as Liberal (a combined 30 percent) was on par with those declaring no party loyalty at all (31 percent). In June, the Liberal opposition was divided between 16 percent identifying with the PLC and 14 percent with the ALN. Only 3 percent claimed belonging to other parties, such as the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS),Camino Cristiano, and the Conservative Party (PC). In February, 39 percent professed belonging to the FSLN, with Liberals split between the PLC with 11 percent, and ALN with 7 percent. Six percent allied with MRS, Camino Cristiano, PC, and other parties, while 37 percent claimed no party affiliation. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Foreign Friends: U.S. in Third Place - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶16. (SBU) When asked to choose which countries they considered to be Nicaragua's closest friend and ally from a list of ten "friendly" countries, Cuba (63 percent) and Venezuela (62 percent) came out on top, followed by the United States (56 percent) in third place. North Korea and Iran ranked in ninth and tenth place, at 29 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Other countries listed were Taiwan (47 percent),Mexico (44 percent),El Salvador (43 percent), Costa Rica (39 percent),and Honduras (37 percent). (Note: The survey results did not break down responses by party affiliation, but it is highly likely that the comparatively warmer views toward Cuba and Venezuela are due to FSLN respondents. Further, in contrast to the February poll, Bolivia was not on the June list. End Note) ¶17. (SBU) A majority of respondents (53 percent) expressed skepticism toward the oil deal offered by President Hugo Chavez and found it doubtful or highly doubtful that Venezuela would ultimately forgive Nicaragua the debt it had incurred as a result of buying oil on credit. Views toward President Chavez's other trademark project, the Bolivian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA),remained positive, with 70 percent of those who were aware of it (21 percent of those polled) believing it would bring benefits to the country. The findings also suggested a slight decline in confidence toward ALBA since February when 84 percent of the segment aware of ALBA (18 percent) believed it would bring benefits to Nicaragua. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Views of Other Political Figures - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶18. (SBU) Views of the opposition remained similar to the February poll. ALN deputy and former presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre has emerged as the strongest counterweight to President Ortega and the Sandinista government, a view that did not change significantly from the February poll. His personal approval ratings, however, were higher with 54 percent holding a favorable view. According to CID-Gallup, the June survey results indicate that Montealegre has consolidated his image as leader of the opposition and of those who identify themselves as Liberals, with 51 percent reporting the he should be the leader of an eventual unification of the Liberals. More than half (53 percent) believed there should be a reunification of Liberal forces this year, without the participation of Arnoldo Aleman, while 38 percent believed the contrary. More people regarded Aleman as a "caudillo" (62 percent) than as a democratic leader (28 percent). In terms of views of his personal character, Aleman received a 20 percent approval and a 70 percent disapproval, with the remaining 10 percent non-committal. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Mayor of Managua Losing Some Ground, Still Comes Out Ahead - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶19. (SBU) The CID-Gallup poll also revealed public disenchantment with other elected officials. Dionisio Marenco, the Sandinista mayor of Managua and potential future presidential contender, was rated more favorably on job performance than Ortega, with 41 percent of capital residents polled agreeing that he was doing "well" or "very well," but he lost 18 points since the February poll when he enjoyed a 59 percent positive rating. Poll analysts asserted that just as Marenco received an image boost with the Sandinistas, winning the national elections, he was now feeling the effects of the negative opinions of the President. More people agreed that certain conditions and services in Managua--namely trash collection and level of cleanliness--had improved (42 percent) or stayed the same (39 percent),rather than worsened (14 percent). - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Government Dismisses Poll Results - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶20. (U) Reacting to the release of the poll, Foreign Minister Samuel Santos publicly downplayed the negative findings, explaining that it was too early for people to expect rapid results from a government that was trying to overcome "setbacks" it had inherited from previous governments. FM Santos asserted that the decline in President Ortega,s approval numbers was due to dissatisfaction over the energy crisis. (Note: It is worth noting, however, that even though power outages and rolling black-outs have become a fact of life in Nicaragua, only 8 percent cited lack of electricity as the principal problem facing the country. Lack of electricity ranked six on the top-ten list of the most serious problems on a national level, after unemployment, corruption, crime and violence, high cost of living, and lack of moral values, but of higher concern than lack of hospitals and medicine, potable water, narcotics trafficking, and environmental damage. End Note.) Even though the energy problem was the result of the cumulative effect of "previous government errors," FM Santos explained, the people were inclined to hold the faces of the current government responsible. The Foreign Minister also rejected claims that the negative perceptions were linked to the alleged secrecy of the Ortega government, the use of the FSLN Party Secretariat as the Presidential office, or other controversial decisions such as the destruction of a public fountain and the firings of governmental officials. He was not concerned about the negative results because, as he put it, "this government if working very hard, clearly to benefit the vast majority." - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ¶21. (SBU) Comment: Although the CID-Gallup survey data did not break down all responses by party affiliation, a comparison of the more positive February results with the negative results of June, combined with the results of the April M&R poll (Reftel B),indicates that FSLN voters have grown disillusioned and divided in their attitudes toward their own leaders. The so-called "euphoria" over Ortega,s return to office in January was largely due to the vote of confidence from the Sandinista faithful. While the lower marks from Liberal ranks was not surprising, the honeymoon Ortega enjoyed with his own party was shorter than expected. Some opposition commentators have opined that the lower ratings from the Sandinista ranks indicates that FSLN voters are feeling "deceived." Another explanation for the drop in favorable ratings is that now that the FSLN is the government there is less unconditional support for its leaders than when it was the opposition party. As one recent visitor to the Embassy explained to Poloff: "The Sandinistas were more comfortable as the opposition, but were unprepared to govern; while the Liberals, who were more comfortable being the government, were unprepared to be the opposition. TRIVELLI