REGIONAL AMBASSADORS SHARE THOUGHTS ON ORTEGA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: REGIONAL AMBASSADORS SHARE THOUGHTS ON ORTEGA
GOVERNMENT

REF: A. MANAGUA 0140


B. MANAGUA 0106

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassadors to Nicaragua from Spain, Mexico,
Chile, Brazil, and Colombia are concerned that the
authoritarian tendencies and lack of experience of many
officials in the Ortega administration, combined with the
"destabilizing" influence of Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez, may negatively influence regional cooperation and
bilateral relations. They also believe that Ortega's first
actions suggest he may intend to "transform" Nicaragua's
democratic system and replace it with one more in line with
Venezuela's authoritarian, populist regime. Several also
agree that as long as the Liberals are divided politically,
they cannot form an effective opposition, thereby allowing
the Sandinistas to manipulate and dominate the National
Assembly. End Summary.


2. (C) Subsequent to his meeting with Central American
ambassadors to discuss the initial actions of the Ortega
administration (ref A),the Ambassador hosted a breakfast on
January 18 for a group of ambassadors from other regional
countries and Spain, whose governments could influence the
direction of the new government. The following ambassadors
attended the breakfast:

- Brazil: Victoria Alice Cleaver, Ambassador
- Chile: Natacha Molina Garcia, Ambassador
- Colombia: Melba Martinez Lopez, Ambassador
- Mexico: Columba Marisela Calvo, Ambassador
- Spain: Jaime Lacadena e Higuera, Ambassador


3. (C) Most of the ambassadors were concerned about the
populist rhetoric of the inauguration (ref B) and President
Ortega's attempts during his first days in office to ram
through laws increasing the power of the presidency. Several
ambassadors, led by Columba Calvo of Mexico, bemoaned the
disorganization of the inauguration events and the numerous
protocol faux pas committed by its Sandinista organizers.
Calvo and Colombian ambassador Melba Martinez commented that
the Sandinistas lack experience running a government, and
that the scarcity of qualified officials could impact the
efficiency of regional programs, such as Plan Puebla-Panama.
Calvo, Martinez, and Lacadena openly wondered about the
future of bilateral relations with Nicaragua.


4. (C) Ambassador Victoria Cleaver of Brazil recounted her
experience at the ceremony organized by the National
University of Engineering (UNI) to grant Chavez an honorary
doctorate. The ceremony started four hours late, but
Cleaver, who was exhausted from enduring the chaotic
inauguration the day before, was prevented from leaving
"early" by security personnel until she insisted. It was an
offense that she will not soon forget.


5. (C) Chilean Ambassador Natacha Molina tempered the
discussion by noting "the behavior of eight days does not
necessarily establish a pattern." She commented that the
Sandinistas were correct to make poverty eradication their
first priority and stated that Chile has the experience and
expertise to assist Nicaragua in this regard. Ambassador
Trivelli responded that Sandinista officials so far seem to
be hastily assembling dozens of pet projects and initiatives,
but these efforts are not coordinated in a coherent and
efficient manner.


6. (C) Ambassador Cleaver expressed her doubt over whether or
not Nicaragua would be able to avoid becoming a satellite of
Venezuela. She noted that Brasilia has suffered a
"Venezuelan invasion" and "we are not even taking money from
Chavez." Cleaver commented on Brazil's role as a moderating
influence over Chavez' ambitions in the region, and opined
that her government may be able to pull Ortega towards the
moderate left. Ambassador Martinez responded that her
government shares these concerns and is worried that Chavez
may destabilize Central America through Nicaragua, further
opening the door to drug trafficking and the movement of
terrorists.


7. (C) Ambassador Trivelli asked the group to comment on the
state of the opposition and any steps we could take to
reinforce the democratic forces. Ambassador Lacadena stated
that so far, only the tiny Sandinista Renovation Movement
(MRS) has vocally opposed Ortega's actions. He opined that
former MRS presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin could play
an important role analyzing the policies and actions of the
Sandinista Front (FSLN),but unfortunately he holds no
official position within the MRS or civil society. Lacadena
agreed that certain deputies in the Liberal Constitutional
Party (PLC) may be willing to pull away from PLC leader and
convicted ex-President Arnoldo Aleman to form an alternative
leadership that would cooperate with the Nicaraguan Liberal
Alliance (ALN).


8. (C) Comment: Lacadena is well-known and has influence with
the Nicaraguan political class. He seems willing to continue
pre-election efforts to bring the Liberals together and was
receptive to a suggestion by Ambassador Trivelli to encourage
former El Salvadoran President Calderon Sol to return to
Nicaragua and help pull the PLC away from Aleman. The
ambassadors agreed that the FSLN will continue efforts to
keep the Liberals divided and pre-empt concerted opposition
in the National Assembly. The left-leaning Brazilian and
Chilean governments have the opportunity to influence Ortega
and possibly convince him that their democratic left model is
a better option than falling under Chavez' orbit of
influence. Those ambassadors did seem to warm to the
suggestions that their governments take small steps in that
direction, e.g., providing technical assistance on biofuels
(Brazil) and perhaps sponsoring an economic conference on
poverty reduction via liberalization (Chile).
TRIVELLI