MRS DEFECTORS PLAN NEW CAUCUS IN ASSEMBLY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001427 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: MRS DEFECTORS PLAN NEW CAUCUS IN ASSEMBLY, ALLIANCES FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REF: MANAGUA 0070 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: While Liberal infighting grabs the most headlines in Nicaragua, post-election squabbling has also fractured the reformist Left. Many FSLN party activists who left the Sandinista Front to support former Managua mayor Herty Lewites' presidential bid later became disenchanted with the leadership of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) after Lewites' untimely death during the campaign. The "Hertistas" are now searching for a political identity and strategy to contest the 2008 municipal elections. One Hertista National Assembly deputy plans to create an "independent caucus" by encouraging defections from the FSLN, Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC),and Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN). End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff held a series of meetings in late May with various "Hertistas" to discuss the direction of that movement. Rivas departmental coordinator Miguel Angel Escoria is attempting to arrange a merger with the Citizens' Action Party (PAC),a political force with a legal identity that the Hertistas hope to take advantage of. Escorcia requested a meeting with poloff on May 18 to discuss a possible merger of the Hertistas with the PAC and an alliance with the ALN. He explained that the Hertistas, mostly local FSLN activists loyal to Lewites and fed up with Ortega's authoritarian domination of the party, once formed the largest bloc in the MRS alliance. After Lewites' death, the Hertistas tussled with MRS leadership over the disposition of resources and party positions, but ultimately remained in the alliance at the request of Lewites' widow Carmen. After the elections, many Hertistas exited the MRS to exist as a movement without a party. ¶3. (C) In anticipation of the 2008 municipal elections, Escorcia commented that the Hertistas have entered negotiations with the PAC to provide electoral muscle and structure in exchange for the PAC's legal identity and "casilla" (voting box on the ballot). He claimed that the Hertistas in Rivas will push the PAC to enter an alliance with the ALN. ALN president Eduardo Montealegre is regarded as the leader of the opposition, and Montealegre's party will lead the charge against the FSLN, Escorcia said. �A; Escorcia identified Juan Ramon Jimenez and Mario Valle, deputies elected under the MRS ticket but subsequently expelled from the alliance, as Hertistas who support this project. ¶4. (C) To investigate Escorcia's assertions, poloff requested meetings with Jimenez and Valle. On May 25, Jimenez told poloff that he is "analyzing" a possible deal with the PAC, but has recently been preoccupied by this wife's struggle with breast cancer. He commented that his citizen outreach efforts in his home department of Carazo have earned him considerable grass roots support over the years, which is why the MRS won a deputy seat in Carazo. (Note: Jimenez is the only deputy to have opened a constituents' affairs office and dedicates half his salary and most of his fuel allowance to charity. To cut down on personal expenses, Jimenez drives a motorbike. End Note.) Jimenez claimed that, because of his popular support, all parties are courting him -- the FSLN has even offered to pay for his wife's medical treatment. ¶5. (C) When queried about the circumstances of his expulsion from the MRS alliance shortly after the elections, Jimenez explained that Enrique Saenz (the MRS candidate for the National Assembly's Executive Board) was unable to garner sufficient votes, so Jimenez emerged as a compromise candidate. (Comment: At the time, Jimenez was accused by the MRS of cooperating with the FSLN against his own party -- see reftel. Other contacts have asserted that the FSLN attempted to "tempt" Jimenez to join the governing party in exchange for a generous financial package to help him cover his wife's treatment. End Comment.) Despite his expulsion from the alliance, Jimenez decided to remain in the MRS caucus, though vote independently, because breaking with the caucus would have "pleased the FSLN." ¶6. (C) Mario Valle is indeed actively pursuing projects with the PAC and within the National Assembly. Valle informed poloff on May 30 that both the PAC and the Resistencia have proposed alliances with him. He commented that Lewites' untimely death was a "disaster" for the MRS alliance, and that the MRS leaders alienated the Hertistas MANAGUA 00001427 002 OF 002 by isolating them. Valle is not as excited about teaming up with the ALN as Escorcia -- he stated that Montealegre is an "elitist banker" who could never be a "national leader" -- but agreed that some sort of opposition alliance is necessary to successfully contest the municipal elections. ¶7. (C) Valle concurred that an alliance of independent parties is a much more plausible strategy for the municipal elections than a unified party. He confided, however, that the FSLN drafted the current electoral law specifically to prevent such an "alianza de hecho" by requiring that allied parties run candidates under one name and casilla and run candidates in at least 80 percent of the municipalities in order to keep their legal identity. Valle advised that the electoral law may be modified in a single session (unlike most constitutional changes, which require approval in two sessions of the Assembly),but by a super majority of 56 votes for passage. ¶8. (C) Valle shared that reaching the 56-vote threshold may not be impossible (the FSLN currently controls 38 of 92 votes). He is working on a project to create an "independent caucus" from the three non-affiliated deputies (Valle, Jimenez, and Salvador Talavera) and other deputies frustrated with their parties and seeking an independent voice. Valle claimed to have commitments from two Convergencia deputies (Sandinista allies in the FSLN caucus),two ALN deputies, and one member of the PLC caucus. If Valle is successful, the opposition caucuses would be within striking distance of a super majority. ¶9. (C) Comment: Valle is correct that several deputies in all of the caucuses are frustrated with their leadership for different reasons -- but he was not able to articulate exactly what joint philosophy or goal would unite them. Valle implied that he would be the caucus chief, but only Jimenez (possibly) would be likely to trust Valle in such a position given his recent history as an FSLN activist. Moreover, the FSLN is famous for enforcing party discipline with bribes and threats, and the bloc rarely suffers stray votes or defections. TRIVELLI