MRS DEFECTORS PLAN NEW CAUCUS IN ASSEMBLY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: MRS DEFECTORS PLAN NEW CAUCUS IN ASSEMBLY,
ALLIANCES FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 0070

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for
reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: While Liberal infighting grabs the most
headlines in Nicaragua, post-election squabbling has also
fractured the reformist Left. Many FSLN party activists
who left the Sandinista Front to support former Managua
mayor Herty Lewites' presidential bid later became
disenchanted with the leadership of the Sandinista
Renovation Movement (MRS) after Lewites' untimely death
during the campaign. The "Hertistas" are now searching for
a political identity and strategy to contest the 2008
municipal elections. One Hertista National Assembly deputy
plans to create an "independent caucus" by encouraging
defections from the FSLN, Liberal Constitutional Party
(PLC),and Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN). End Summary.


2. (C) Poloff held a series of meetings in late May with
various "Hertistas" to discuss the direction of that
movement. Rivas departmental coordinator Miguel Angel
Escoria is attempting to arrange a merger with the
Citizens' Action Party (PAC),a political force with a
legal identity that the Hertistas hope to take advantage
of. Escorcia requested a meeting with poloff on May 18 to
discuss a possible merger of the Hertistas with the PAC and
an alliance with the ALN. He explained that the Hertistas,
mostly local FSLN activists loyal to Lewites and fed up
with Ortega's authoritarian domination of the party, once
formed the largest bloc in the MRS alliance. After
Lewites' death, the Hertistas tussled with MRS leadership
over the disposition of resources and party positions, but
ultimately remained in the alliance at the request of
Lewites' widow Carmen. After the elections, many Hertistas
exited the MRS to exist as a movement without a party.


3. (C) In anticipation of the 2008 municipal elections,
Escorcia commented that the Hertistas have entered
negotiations with the PAC to provide electoral muscle and
structure in exchange for the PAC's legal identity and
"casilla" (voting box on the ballot). He claimed that the
Hertistas in Rivas will push the PAC to enter an alliance
with the ALN. ALN president Eduardo Montealegre is
regarded as the leader of the opposition, and Montealegre's
party will lead the charge against the FSLN, Escorcia said.
Escorcia identified Juan Ramon Jimenez and Mario Valle,
deputies elected under the MRS ticket but subsequently
expelled from the alliance, as Hertistas who support this
project.


4. (C) To investigate Escorcia's assertions, poloff
requested meetings with Jimenez and Valle. On May 25,
Jimenez told poloff that he is "analyzing" a possible deal
with the PAC, but has recently been preoccupied by this
wife's struggle with breast cancer. He commented that his
citizen outreach efforts in his home department of Carazo
have earned him considerable grass roots support over the
years, which is why the MRS won a deputy seat in Carazo.
(Note: Jimenez is the only deputy to have opened a
constituents' affairs office and dedicates half his salary
and most of his fuel allowance to charity. To cut down on
personal expenses, Jimenez drives a motorbike. End Note.)
Jimenez claimed that, because of his popular support, all
parties are courting him -- the FSLN has even offered to
pay for his wife's medical treatment.


5. (C) When queried about the circumstances of his
expulsion from the MRS alliance shortly after the
elections, Jimenez explained that Enrique Saenz (the MRS
candidate for the National Assembly's Executive Board) was
unable to garner sufficient votes, so Jimenez emerged as a
compromise candidate. (Comment: At the time, Jimenez was
accused by the MRS of cooperating with the FSLN against his
own party -- see reftel. Other contacts have asserted that
the FSLN attempted to "tempt" Jimenez to join the governing
party in exchange for a generous financial package to help
him cover his wife's treatment. End Comment.) Despite his
expulsion from the alliance, Jimenez decided to remain in
the MRS caucus, though vote independently, because breaking
with the caucus would have "pleased the FSLN."


6. (C) Mario Valle is indeed actively pursuing projects
with the PAC and within the National Assembly. Valle
informed poloff on May 30 that both the PAC and the
Resistencia have proposed alliances with him. He commented
that Lewites' untimely death was a "disaster" for the MRS
alliance, and that the MRS leaders alienated the Hertistas

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by isolating them. Valle is not as excited about teaming
up with the ALN as Escorcia -- he stated that Montealegre
is an "elitist banker" who could never be a "national
leader" -- but agreed that some sort of opposition alliance
is necessary to successfully contest the municipal
elections.


7. (C) Valle concurred that an alliance of independent
parties is a much more plausible strategy for the municipal
elections than a unified party. He confided, however, that
the FSLN drafted the current electoral law specifically to
prevent such an "alianza de hecho" by requiring that allied
parties run candidates under one name and casilla and run
candidates in at least 80 percent of the municipalities in
order to keep their legal identity. Valle advised that the
electoral law may be modified in a single session (unlike
most constitutional changes, which require approval in two
sessions of the Assembly),but by a super majority of 56
votes for passage.


8. (C) Valle shared that reaching the 56-vote threshold may
not be impossible (the FSLN currently controls 38 of 92
votes). He is working on a project to create an
"independent caucus" from the three non-affiliated deputies
(Valle, Jimenez, and Salvador Talavera) and other deputies
frustrated with their parties and seeking an independent
voice. Valle claimed to have commitments from two
Convergencia deputies (Sandinista allies in the FSLN
caucus),two ALN deputies, and one member of the PLC
caucus. If Valle is successful, the opposition caucuses
would be within striking distance of a super majority.


9. (C) Comment: Valle is correct that several deputies in
all of the caucuses are frustrated with their leadership
for different reasons -- but he was not able to articulate
exactly what joint philosophy or goal would unite them.
Valle implied that he would be the caucus chief, but only
Jimenez (possibly) would be likely to trust Valle in such a
position given his recent history as an FSLN activist.
Moreover, the FSLN is famous for enforcing party discipline
with bribes and threats, and the bloc rarely suffers stray
votes or defections.
TRIVELLI